Don’t stomp too hard—you’ll surely pop it. Don’t dance too quickly—you’ll likely lose your footing. Don’t stand still—the surface beneath you will sink in. Yes, the bubble is quite the fleeting menace.

Everyone that has come to this site should already know the great work that Glockner does over at Bubble Watch, but this feature will not be about projecting the field, or anticipating what might happen. No, this is how I see the field of 65 and who I think should be in; all of this is according to my eyes and my judgment. And no, I do not read any Bracketology. As I’ve stated before, Lunardi is just too good at what he does that he takes the fun out of it for me.

Locks? There are none. Yet. What defines a “lock” to me? Simple: If you can afford to lose every single game for the remainder of the season and still be granted an at-large berth despite that, you’re a lock. It’s safe to say that no one is safe from that yet. Of course Memphis isn’t going to lose their final 14 games (or lose three games period!) but that wouldn’t make this game fun!

I’m litigious with this, I know, but I do it purposefully in order to really be able to get a full scope of the at-large field. How many at-large candidates are there? I’ve done hours of research (get a hold of your life, Norlander) and widdled the field down to 59 teams with legitimate shots right now. There are others, and I call them the “fringers” that are so terrible that they can’t even get some consideration yet (Kentucky, N.C. State, Charlotte, Penn State, etc…) but could eventually fight their way into the at-large picture. And then there are the additional 13 that have entered the almost-lock territory. If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com.

Understand that there are only 34 at-large berths handed out each year, and the ratio of locks/bubblers will certainly become a lot tighter once February hits. For all of your NCAA Tournament questions, needs and curiosities, follow me.

Only room for one (Conference RPI rankings are in parentheses and are according to www.kenpom.com). And obviously the amount of one-bid conferences will grow once certain teams play themselves out of the at-large picture:

America East: UM-Balt. County (28)
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville (29)
Big Sky: Northern Arizona (24)
Big South: UNC-Asheville (25)
Ivy: Brown (22)
MEAC: Hampton (27)
NEC: Wagner (26)
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay (30)
Patriot: Holy Cross (21)
Southern: Georgia Southern (16)
SWAC: Jackson State (31)
Sun Belt: North Texas (15)

Icons for the 13 that are in barring any sort of an epic collapse (alphabetically):

Then the separation, where there are currently 59 at-large candidates, is where it gets fun. There are only 34 available spots. Note: ALL RECORDS AND RANKINGS ARE AS OF MONDAY NIGHT.

Here’s the math: 31 Autos + 6 bids taken from the teams above = 38 spots. Here are the 27 (in order) remaining teams that fill up the brackets and the teams that just miss out (for now)…

(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Record vs. RPI Top 50)

Here’s the first group of teams. They are all ranked 25th or better in the RPI, and while the RPI is not a perfect system, I do always have one rule: If you’re in the top 25 teams in the RPI, you deserve to get into The Tournament. The system is built too well to deny anyone that can crack this group.

(14-1, 5, 4-0) Dayton is about as close to the group listed above as you can get.

(14-2, 4, 3-2) Pittsburgh still has the chance to screw this thing up. Add in the injuries to Cook (for the season) and Fields (until at least the end of February) and it’s not quite a foregone conclusion.

(13-2, 6, 3-1) Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga will likely take an automatic bid (giving an at-large to a team listed below the 66 seed line below), but I’m going on a worst-case scenario here. (Which is always the most fun.)

(14-3, 11, 3-2) Do I need to list off the trail of those they’ve left behind? Fine: Kent State, Indiana, Creighton, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Virginia and Auburn. Next.

(10-5, 9, 1-3) Leave it to the Wildcats (it’s almost always Arizona or Kentucky) that occupy the hardest schedule in the country for a decent portion of the season. Their RPI of 9 is too high to put them in the group below.

(16-1, 12, 2-0) Only a one-loss Vanderbilt team here, they’re looking well on their way to “lock” status within a couple of weeks. Just don’t screw this thing up.

(15-2, 15, 3-1) Oh hell yes I’m giving the love to Rhode Island. They’ve defeated Syracuse, UAB and Providence, in case you hadn’t been paying attention.

(16-1, 17, 2-0) Butler’s on their way to another Sweet 16. Let’s just move on.

(12-1, 18, 1-1) Got to LOOOVE The Drake! But do you know The Drake? How’d they get this 18 ranking in the RPI anyway? Well, not a lot, really. Southern Illinois and Iowa are their only Top 100 wins. Regardless, they can enjoy hanging up here with the big boys for now.

(14-1, 19, 2-1) Mississippi is a bit of a mystery right now in terms of how good they can really be and what kind of seed they’ll end up with, but they’re secure in their at-large status.

(13-2, 20, 1-2) After romping on Penn State on Tuesday night, Wisconsin’s status as a solid team (and one that’s not likely to be upset in the first round) cements itself. Only 1-2 against the Top 50 right now, but they’ll have at least three more wins in that department by the end of the Big 10 tournament.

(12-4, 24, 1-3) For all of the talk of the Big 10 being down, this is four teams that are now qualified (by, uh, my standards) for The Tournament. After watching Ohio State at MSU, I’d be confident enough to endorse them for at-large consideration.

(12-4, 25, 3-1) The Ducks have been a little skiddish this season, but they just crack the special number here. Three straight victories against Arizona, Cal and Stanford put them as the number three team in the Pac-10 for now.

A LEVEL BELOW:

(12-5, 27, 1-4) By all accounts, if The Tournament started today, Syracuse probably would be on the outside again. Why? I think the selection committee uses the injury to Devendorf against them. Fortunately, I think they’ll improve and end up being a Tournament team as it is. The best news of all? We won’t hear Boeheim whine.

(13-4, 26, 2-3) No explanation needed here. You know they belong.

(11-4, 28, 1-2) Plenty of A-10 love to go around at CHJ. I won’t apologize for this one.

(11-4, 29, 3-3) The Mountaineers were counted out before the season even began. Predicted as the 10th team overall, WVU has made fools of many with Huggins controlling the team. A nice looking schedule secures them for now.

(13-3, 31, 1-2) Tough to argue with a 31 RPI at the moment, though that’s sure to go down in the weak SEC West.

(13-2, 68, 3-0) Arizona State has come from nowhere to be a player in the Pac-10 this year. They opened the season with a whoopin’ at the hands of Illinois (and how those paths have changed), yet have only been felled by Nebraska since.

(12-3, 37, 1-2) Will Clemson break into The Tournament this year? Everyone’s familiar with their past two seasons (and subsequent collapses), but this seems to be a different story this year. Best win? Saturday’s double-OT home win against Florida State.

(12-5, 46, 3-2) I was hesitant to put a team with five losses into the at-large mix, but OU passes the eyeball test. Despite their shellacking (without their best player) against Kansas the other night, the Sooners are too strong up front to leave out.

(12-5, 35, 0-3) Had to put the five-loss Seminoles in the picture right now as well. Why? They’ve defeated fellow bubblers Florida, Minnesota, UAB.

(13-1, 40, 1-0) The ‘Canes got off to a hot start. Haven’t really beaten a lot of quality (Providence, Miss. St. are best wins), but they’re a top 40 RPI with only one loss right now.

(12-4, 47, 2-1) With Juan Palacios and David Padgett back and contributing significant minutes, Louisville is likely to be an at-large lock by the the Big East tournament, but I’ll keep them just above the 66 line until they can rack up the quality wins. After all, if The Tournament started today, I certainly wouldn’t consider them an automatic. Would you?

(11-3, 45, 1-0) ‘Nova’s just barely passes the eyeball test right now.

(13-3, 32, 0-3) Why not take South Alabama right now? They probably won’t be here in a week from now, plus, they’re likely to win the Sun Belt Conference. If they were to lose could they get an at-large? It’s not that likely, but if they can keep up their run, why not?

(11-5, 30, 2-3) Uh oh, with all of the Big East haters out there, this can’t be a good thing to see. Their schedule rank though? 31. They are the last team in right now due to the fact that they only have one true road win (@ Boston College).

——————–SEED 66 LINE———————–

NOTE: Consider the fact that there will be more one-bid leagues that come into play in the upcoming weeks, so at least four or five of these at-large candidates will spring above the 66 line very soon.

(14-3, 69, 0-1) Have to put New Mexico in the mix right now, even despite their last-second loss to TCU on Tuesday. Don’t have a Top 50 win (and only have one Top 100), but I’ve liked what I’ve seen so far.
(15-2, 77, 0-2) The young Gators! I want to see some more, but they would currently take the final spot if either Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s took the auto bid from the WCC.
(12-3, 52, 2-2) Notre Dame looks good, this I can’t deny, but they’ve got a schedule strength of 115 and their non-con SOS is lower than 200. 10 wins in the Big East is task #1 for the Irish.
(13-3, 43, 0-2) Stanford is very close to being inside the party bubble, just give it a couple of weeks, I’m sure they’ll get there. No signature win, yet I hold them in such high regard…
(12-2, 48, 0-2) They were on the cusp of cracking the Top 25 a couple of weeks ago, but the polls have ABSOLUTELY ZERO to do with this exercise. Baylor has been a pleasant surprise. I’ll check back in a week.
(10-4, 55, 2-2) Like last year, it seems as though the Wildcats might be the epitome of a bubble team. Their wins include: California and Oklahoma. Their losses include: George Mason, Xavier, Oregon and Notre Dame. At some point you’ve gotta show consistency.
(11-4, 91, 1-3) You have to think Boston College will be Tournament-worthy in six weeks. The problem with that? It’s not six weeks from now.
(9-4, 71, 1-2) Another Mountain West team that could make it, but probably won’t. However, Utah could steal the auto bid by winning the MWC tournament; that wouldn’t surprise me in the least. Their top 50 win? At Cal. Not bad at all.
(11-4, 49, 0-2) They’re 0-2 inside the top 50, but have four top 100 wins at the moment. A couple of respectable road wins inside the conference a must for the Bears. They fall a notch below their head-to-head foe, Utah.
(11-3, 41, 1-2) It’d be nice to see the Missouri Valley get two teams in (Drake is currently top dog) but Creighton will need to really rack up the wins inside the conference to keep the RPI above 50 and the Blue Jays inside the conversation.
(11-4, 66, 0-1) Gotta figure that the Demon Deacons are playing with house money right now. After the shocking tragedy over the summer, what better story would there be for Clark Kellogg to do a feature on in March? Here’s to hoping.
(10-6, 73, 2-5) No team has more losses in this list than the Trojans do (but Seton Hall and Alabama have just as many). Is it a lot of preseason hype that’s keeping them around? There’s talk that the Pac-10 could get seven bids. Will USC be the team that prevents that from happening?
(11-4, 38, 0-3) Oooh, another good bubble team. Are the Tourney worthy? Not sure yet, but they’re developing nicely. If they had beaten Gonzaga earlier in the year, I’d probably have them above the 66 line. Give it time, Husky fans, give it time.
(13-3, 39, 1-2) Haven’t seen them play yet this year, but I’m making it a point to. Some think the MAC could draw multiple bids (and that’s still a possibility) with Akron (not mentioned today) and Ohio fighting for the MAC East title. The winner will more than likely garner an at-large bid should they fall in the MAC tournament, but I’ll cross that bridge when I cross it. They beat Mason and Illinois State, both of whom immediately follow below.
(11-5, 62, 1-2) I think most of us are in agreement (even you, UConn Fan, in your deepest of hearts) that another appearance by GMU in The Tournament would mean nothing but good things for most involved. Wins over Dayton (their only loss to date), Kansas State and South Carolina keep them in the convo.
(12-3, 36, 1-2) Illinois State’s season has caught a lot by surprise (I still couldn’t tell you one player on their roster and most other bloggers would acquiesce to that fact as well), but they do have an impressive 36 ranking in the RPI right now. Their top 50 win came against Creighton right before the new year, so that kind of hurts (it’s always better to have non-con 50 wins). I have to respect what they’ve done so far, but their schedule rank is 109 right now and slowly slipping.

(10-5, 50, 1-2) Beloved MAC, do not let me down. I want to see Ohio tear through the league and really do some damage in The Tournament (they’ve got the potential to).
(11-4, 56, 0-2) Vegas seems to be like a team that will just miss the cut this year. Or, the selection committee could completely baffle us all (like with the Stanford selection last year) and put them in at the last minute. Jury’s still out here.
(10-4, 63, 1-3) A home loss to Syracuse might end up seperating these two teams on Selection Sunday, but UVA’s got plenty of time to make up that ground with their brutal ACC schedule. They weren’t very competitive against Duke on Sunday, so for the moment they’re pretty far down the list of potential dancers.
(9-4, 44, 1-3) A little befuddled by the RPI ranking here considering their SOS isn’t top 50 and their only top 50 win came against UMass.
(12-3, 53, 0-2) After Wake Forest, a story that the national media would surely slurp up would be the arrival of Tubby Smith and Minnesota to The Tournament. No top 50 wins yet, but we’ll see if they can climb up the totem poll in the weak Big 10. Given their SOS (186), a third place finish inside the conference might be what Minnesota needs in order to be invited.
(11-6, 85, 0-4) Have to see some quality play out of Alabama before they can be taken seriously. They’ll have plenty of chances against the top 50 material, so getting to four wins is the very least they should be asked of.
(11-4, 44, 0-4) Four chances against quality opponents and no wins? Ouch. That will come back to haunt them UNLESS they can steal a few big ones on the road in the A-10.
(11-4, 51, 0-3) Had their chances against Arizona, Saint Mary’s and Cal, only to lose all three games. A recent defeat of New Mexico keeps SDSU in the hunt.
(11-5, 98, 0-2) A win over Kentucky just ain’t that great this year. C-USA probaly will be a one-bid league, but I’ll entertain the Blazers’ offers for a little while.
(8-6, 84, 1-2) Bobby Knight hasn’t made noise in The Tournament since I was watching the disgusting health videos in junior high.
(10-6, 76, 0-4) THE HALL as alumni like to call it, have a long way to go.
(11-4, 57, 1-2) Not. A. Believer. I only put them on here to harass ACC haters.
(10-6, 89, 0-2) The Hokies barely make the cut. I’m hoping they can regain some of that postseason swagger they possessed last season.
(9-2, 54, 0-0) Barely hanging on here. All I’m asking is for you to run the table, Bearkats.
(8-7, 137, 0-1) Just keeping Delaware around because they’ve got a slim chance at an at-large. That, of course, will mean going through conference season with one loss, tops, and losing in the conference tournament final. This is a pity mention.

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