It’s the conference that Billy Packer will love to hate. It’s the Atlantic 10. How many bids will this conference get? Who is beating up on whom so far? Is it overrated, or are there some legitimate teams that can go far in The Tournament? Let’s take a look and really pick apart the nation’s most intriguing league this season.

(Rankings according to the ever-referenced kenpom.com)

Overall conference RPI: 7

Non-conference SOS: 6

Teams in RPI Top 100: 8

Here are the current rankings as of today (Tuesday, January 22nd):

The Players:

They’ve got a current RPI of 21, yet are buried in the A-10 standings at the moment. Fear not, Rams fans, for the conference season is just blossoming. That being said, the Rams need to avoid a letdown in the coming weeks in order to stay in the good graces of the selection committee. They get George Washington, St. Bonaventure and Richmond—three games they need to win—before a huge game against Dayton at home on February 2nd. Their game against UMass at home on February 21st is their only nationally televised game of the entire season and could be a breaking point for either team. Chances of making The Tournament: 55%.

The Flyers are 14-2 and looking pretty damn good. If I could create a Top 5 list of active college basketball players that I would like to interview, Brian Roberts would certainly make that list. The Flyers have an RPI of 13 and a SOS of 31 right now with destiny completely in their hands. Their difficult road games in conference that remain, in order: @ Xavier Jan. 24, @ Rhode Island Feb. 2nd. That. Is. It. You can’t really foresee any sort of collapse with this team, but there’s always a chance. Chances: 90%.

The Minutemen have had losses to Northern Iowa (not terrible), IUPUI (bad) and Vanderbilt (more than acceptable). A great pair of non-con win over Syracuse and Boston College, with a beating of Houston in there to boot. So the non-con is not a huge deal for UMass right now. Their RPI? A firm 20. Chances: 54%.

What needs to be said about this team on this website has already been said, but I’ll say it again. The list of victims (and I mean victims) include Kent State, Indiana, Creighton, Cincinnati and Virginia. You could also argue that the Muskies have already hit their slump (back-to-back losses against Arizona State and Tennessee in December), so that makes them even more dangerous. A big game against Dayton in two days will determine (for the short term) who gets to play Daddy in the A-10. This team will be a sizzling hot pick to make the Sweet 16. Chances: 97%.

They just got beat by UMass on Saturday, but the 49ers have plenty of opportunities left to keep afloat in the conference standings. Heck, they were the last team undefeated in A-10 play. Their non-con isn’t that great and they currently have an RPI of 82, yet there is something sleeper-like about this team. Of utmost importance: Charlotte must finish with at least 12 conferences wins in order to gain serious at-large consideration. Chances: 27%.

St. Joe’s is a bit of an enigma right now. Some (Lunardi, Glockner) liked their at-large chances back in December after they lost to Syracuse (and the hands and arms of Jonny Flynn) with a last-second 3 in the Carrier Dome. Their RPI is currently at 54 (not good enough) and an immediate home win against UMass on Wednesday is a must. A loss their would mean a 10-6 record the Hawks and a daunting task to regain their March mojo. Chances: 12%.

The Spoilers:

The Dukes looked good early but have suffered too many bad losses to really climb back up the hill. That doesn’t mean they can’t do some damage to the hopefuls above them in the standings.

Fordham got a great win on Saturday (75-74) over the aforementioned Dukes to put themselves in this category. The Rams have the experience to steal a game or two in the A-10 conference tournament as well.

Temple is well on their way to relevancy, post-Chaney. Dionte Christmas is one of the five best players in the league. Sometimes, especially in a league like this, a player like that can do enough damage to any given team.

Forget their record-low 20-point output two weeks ago. Any team that is coached by Rick Majerus has a chance to break some hearts. And they did just beat Rhode Island over the weekend.

The Wannabes: St. Bonaventure, Richmond, La Salle, George Washington.

So how many bids will the conference get? I’m predicting it right now: Four. I see the committee really rewarding this team and certainly granting them as many bids as the Big 10 will get (and they might not even get four). We’ll all have to wait and see how things pan out to really make the proper assessment, but even if some of these teams beat up on each other and no one ends up with less than four conference losses, that doesn’t mean that four, or even five teams, aren’t worthy of selection.

Tuesday, January 22nd, 2008 @ 1:57 pm Team Spotlights
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