I’ll run almost the same entire opener that I preluded with last week…

Don’t stomp too hard—you’ll surely pop it. Don’t dance too quickly—you’ll likely lose your footing. Don’t stand still—the surface beneath you will sink in. Yes, the bubble is quite the fleeting menace.

Everyone that has come to this site should already know the great work that Glockner does over at Bubble Watch, but this feature will not be about projecting the field, or anticipating what might happen. No, this is how I see the field of 65 and who I think should be in; all of this is according to my eyes and my judgment. And no, I do not read any Bracketology. As I’ve stated before, Lunardi is just too good at what he does that he takes the fun out evaluating the field for me.

Locks? There are none. Yet. What defines a “lock” to me? Simple: If you can afford to lose every single game for the remainder of the season and still be granted an at-large berth despite that, you’re a lock. It’s safe to say that no one is safe from that yet. Of course Memphis isn’t going to lose their remaining games (or lose three games period!) but that wouldn’t make this game fun!

I’m litigious with this, I know, but I do it purposefully in order to really be able to get a full scope of the at-large field. There are a couple of new teams that have been added to the mix this week, a couple that need some work to do to get back on board (Duquesne, Utah, Alabama, UAB), and a couple that are gone for good (Delaware, Sam Houston State).

There are now only 11 “almost lock” teams (as Marquette and Texas A&M were bumped from that group this week) and the at-large field after that? It’s now at a fat 57. Don’t worry, that fat will be trimmed each week.

Fifteen conferences are now in “one-bid” mode (those are listed below). There are others, and I call them the “fringers” that are not even worthy of consideration yet (Kentucky, N.C. State, Charlotte, etc…) but could eventually fight their way into the at-large picture. If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com.

Understand that there are only 34 at-large berths handed out each year, and the ratio of locks/bubblers will certainly become a lot tighter once February hits. For the sake of this column, I’m assuming the worst right now. That means every single conference tournament will produce a winner that has no at-large chances. For all of your NCAA Tournament questions, needs and curiosities, follow me.

Only room for one (Conference RPI rankings are in parentheses and are according to www.kenpom.com):

America East: UM-Balt. County (27)
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville (29)
Big Sky: Northern Arizona (24)
Big South: UNC-Asheville (25)
Colonial: Virginia Commonwealth (14)
Ivy: Brown (22)
MEAC: Hampton (27)
NEC: Wagner (26)
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay (30)
Patriot: Holy Cross (21)
Southern: Georgia Southern (16)
Southland: Stephen F. Austin (21)
SWAC: Jackson State (31)
Summit: IUPUI (23)
Sun Belt: North Texas (15)

Icons for the 13 that are in barring any sort of an epic collapse (alphabetically):

Note: ALL RECORDS AND RANKINGS ARE AS OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

Here’s the math: 31 Autos + 4 bids (presumably!) taken from the teams above = 35 spots. Here are the 30 (in order) remaining teams that fill up the brackets and the teams that just miss out (for now)…

(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Record vs. RPI Top 50)

Here’s the first group of teams. They are all ranked 25th or better in the RPI, and while the RPI is not a perfect system, I do always have one rule: If you’re in the top 25 teams in the RPI, you deserve to get into The Tournament. The system is built too well to deny anyone that can crack this group.

(14-2, 16, 3-2) The Flyers are fine.

  (14-4, 53, 1-3) The Aggies have now dropped three consecutive after their ridiculous 5OT loss to Baylor on Wednesday night. They’re still in the safe, good side of the bubble for now. That doesn’t mean things can’t change quickly, though—Texas and Oklahoma are two of their next three opponents.

(12-4, 21, 3-4) Something told me that I was making a mistake by putting Marquette with the group of big boys up above last week. Now the Golden Eagles are seeing their size work against them and have lost back-to-back games against Cincinnati and Louisville.

(15-3, 7, 2-2) They lose one of their Top 50 RPI wins due to Seton Hall falling in the rankings. Pittsburgh still has the chance to screw this thing up. Add in the injuries to Cook (for the season) and Fields (until at least the end of February) and it’s not quite a foregone conclusion.

(15-4, 18, 4-1) Do I need to list off the trail of those they’ve left behind? Fine: Kent State, Indiana, Creighton, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Virginia and Auburn. Next.

(15-2, 11, 3-1) The RPI (which was at 6 last week) now slowly falls as the season progresses for the West Coast Conference native. Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga will likely take an automatic bid (giving an at-large to a team listed below the 66 seed line below), but I’m going on a worst-case scenario here. (Which is always the most fun.)

(17-2, 12, 2-1) Their hot start has given them plenty of cushion room. A deeper look into this team next week after they play Florida and Ole Miss. Those games could certainly cement or liquefy Vanderbilt’s Tournament chances.

(17-2, 23, 1-1) The Bulldogs now have a 1-1 mark against the RPI Top 50, but dig deeper and you see that they are 6-1 against the Top 100. They’ve earned the respect they’re getting the polls.

(15-1, 8, 2-1) The Drake has an RPI of 8!! Evidence of how the Missouri Valley has really taken huge strides over the past half-decade in order to build on its conference RPI credentials.

(15-2, 13, 2-1) A three-point loss to Auburn gave the Rebs a week to prepare for Mississippi State on Saturday. Losing that game might raise an eyebrow or two.

(16-2, 20, 1-2) Badgers have to do just a little bit more before they can join the row of icons above.

(13-5, 19, 2-3) UMass bounds all the way up to 19 in the RPI. Good for them; not a lot of people are noticing them right now. True, they are a five loss team, but I believe in them. So should you.

(16-3, 24, 2-1) They’ve defeated Syracuse, UAB and Providence, in case you hadn’t been paying attention. It’s gotten a little shaky for them recently, but the Rams still deserve their placement here.

(11-6, 10, 0-4) I’ll just keep the Wildcats above the blurred line, but I’m not happy about it; it’s that damned RPI, he’s so hot right now.
(15-2, 22, 1-2) Last week I said, “Baylor has been a pleasant surprise. I’ll check back in a week.” Now we see the Bears clearly making the biggest jump this week by jumping 26 spots in the RPI after their ridiculous 5OT win on Wednesday.

A LEVEL BELOW:

(15-4, 35, 2-3) Gonzaga cannot be punished for their conference. There’s also too much on the resume to negate them from the top of this list.

(14-5, 34, 2-1) The Cardinals’ stock continues to rise. With the way that they’re playing in the Big East they could actually end up with a 3-seed (I know, ridiculous, right?!) by season’s end.

(14-4, 26, 2-4) The Mountaineers, if The Tournament started today, would likely get a ridiculous 10-seed. I see them on the top half of that bracket matchup as a 7.

(14-2, 72, 3-1) I’ve seen ASU play and have to ignore the RPI in this instance; it’s the non-con 330 SOS that is bringing them down. A 3-1 record against the RPI Top 50 and being in the thick of the Pac-10 race puts them above many other teams.

(13-6, 28, 2-4) The Buckeyes have their heads above water and will probably stay there given the weak nature of the Big 10.

(14-4, 27, 0-3) Will Clemson break into The Tournament this year? Everyone’s familiar with their past two seasons (and subsequent collapses), but this seems to be a different story this year. I’d say they have to be No. 3 in the ACC power rankings right now. That means a Tournament berth.

(15-3, 29, 2-2) Too much on the resume to deny another Pac-10 acceptance.

(13-5, 37, 3-4) I was hesitant to put the Sooners in the mix last week, but I still can’t take them away from the table since they haven’t lost since.

(13-4, 38, 3-0) They’ve got a 5-4 neutral road record and have looked shaky recently. Something is keeping me from bumping them below the Seed 66 Line right now though.

(12-5, 31, 2-3) A nice RPI, still, they’ve got five losses and what to show for it? Temple, Arkansas, UConn, Florida State and Boston College. You get through the gates today.

(11-6, 48, 2-4) They won at UCLA.

(12-4, 41, 1-4) Weird stuff. They jump 17 RPI spots, yet fall from 2-2 to 1-4 against Top 50 opponents after their two wins in the past week. They may be more erratic than one my exes, but they’ve looked good in their wins over A&M and Colorado.

(17-3, 54, 0-2) They aren’t getting their shots against the big boys yet, but I have to reward this young team on winning 17 of their first 20.

(12-6, 32, 3-2) The Ducks lose two in a row and their grip on the better side of the at-large picture. They still just barely clear the 66 line though.

(13-3, 30, 0-2) A 2-1 record (in case you were wondering) against the Top 100 has to keep South Alabama in the good graces of the committee. Only one more game (against Western Kentucky, Feb. 21) allows South Alabama another Top 100 win.

——————–SEED 66 LINE———————–

NOTE: Consider the fact that there will be more one-bid leagues that come into play in the upcoming weeks, so at least four or five of these at-large candidates will spring above the 66 line very soon.

(13-4, 47, 3-3) 10 wins in the Big East is task #1 for the Irish. They just miss out this week.

(13-5, 36, 0-3) Calhoun’s off his frickin’ rocker (was nearly ejected the other night AGAIN in the Cincinnati game) and that might make this UConn team crazy enough to sneak through the gym doors to get to the dance.  They lost to ND, so they are behind them until play proves otherwise.

(13-5, 43, 1-2) The Hogs plummet after their losses to South Carolina and Georgia.

(15-4, 33, 3-3) 3-0 against the Top 100. 4-0 against 101-200. They are most certainly on the cusp.

(16-4, 63, 0-1) The Lobos have to put a big win streak together inside the conference to bump above the Line.

(13-4, 44, 1-1) Three straight losses? See ya.
(13-7, 51, 0-5) Like they always do, the Seminoles have put themselves in a weird spot for at-large consideration. There’s no way they deserve to be in after their performances last week.

(12-6, 69, 1-4) A great win over Louisville, but also need a win against Providence tonight to really move up a few rungs.

(12-5, 71, 2-3) The Eagles go 1-1 in and jump 20 RPI spots. Life in the ACC House sure is nice.

(13-7, 40, 1-6) ‘Cuse has not taken advantage of their chances against the better teams in the country and now is left to really win their remaining road games (@ DePaul, Villanova, Louisville, Notre Dame).

(11-5, 45, 2-3) They have swept UMass. Follow me here, because I think that UMass/St. Joe’s will be SUCH a huge issue in March. I’ll get more into this potential marsh March mess next week.

(13-4, 46, 1-3) It’d be nice to see the Missouri Valley get two teams in (Drake is currently top dog) but Creighton will need to really rack up the wins inside the conference to keep the RPI above 50 and the Blue Jays inside the conversation.

(14-5, 50, 3-2) Just keep showing me more, Mason.
(13-5, 42, 1-3) Tough loss to Drake, but they still belong.

(12-6, 39, 1-2) Beloved MAC, do not let me down. I want to see Ohio tear through the league and really do some damage in The Tournament (they’ve got the potential to).
(13-4, 57, 0-2) Vegas seems to be like a team that will just miss the cut this year. Or, the selection committee could completely baffle us all (like with the Stanford selection last year) and put them in at the last minute. Jury’s still out here.
(11-6, 86, 1-3) Beat Boston College…then lose to Florida State. Need some more consistency here.

(12-6, 70, 0-2) Wake Forest lost a heart breaker to Clemson on the road but can still regain some momentum; it’s certainly not too late.

(11-6, 95, 1-4) They lost to Utah (who is no longer listed here) and are clinging.

(12-5, 74, 0-3) The Gophers must defeat Ohio State to stick around.
(13-5, 55, 0-3) Had their chances against Arizona, Saint Mary’s and Cal, only to lose all three games. A recent defeat of New Mexico keeps SDSU in the hunt, but I still have to see a lot more.

(10-7, 58, 1-3) They jump from the 80s to the 50s in the RPI.

(12-6, 59, 2-3) Not. A. Believer. I only put them on here to harass ACC haters.

(11-7, 82, 0-2) The Hokies barely make the cut. I’m hoping they can regain some of that postseason swagger they possessed last season.

(13-5, 76, 0-3) The Bulldogs get on the list in hopes that they can take down Ole Miss and really make their presence known in Bubbleland.

(12-6, 79, 2-1) They’ve got a lower RPI than Duquesne, but have defeats of Wake, Davidson (eh), Southern Illinois (eh) and St. Joe’s (decent).

 

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