Everyone that has come to this site should already know the great work that Glockner does over at Bubble Watch, but this feature will not be about projecting the field, or anticipating what might happen. No, this is how I see the field of 65 and who I think should be in; all of this is according to my eyes and my judgment. And no, I do not read any Bracketology. As I’ve stated before, Lunardi is just too good at what he does that he takes the fun out evaluating the field for me.

Locks? Yes! I’ve finally dubbed some teams as official “locks.” What defines a “lock” to me? Simple: If you can afford to lose every single game for the remainder of the season and still be granted an at-large berth despite that, you’re a lock.

I’m litigious with this, I know, but I do it purposefully in order to really be able to get a full scope of the at-large field.

There are now only 10 locks and the at-large field after that? It’s now down just one to 56.

There are others, and I call them the “fringers” that are not even worthy of consideration yet (Kentucky, Akron, Utah State, etc…) but could eventually fight their way into the at-large picture. If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com.

Understand that there are only 34 at-large berths handed out each year, and the ratio of locks/bubblers will certainly become a lot tighter once February rolls on. (Expect the first bunch of lock teams to be put into place next week.) For the sake of this column, I’m assuming the worst right now. That means every single conference tournament will produce a winner that has no at-large chances. I’ve cut some of the fat—Texas Tech, Minnesota, Virginia, Creighton, Boston College, Florida State—so let’s move on. For all of your NCAA Tournament questions, needs and curiosities, follow me.

 

Only room for one (16 conferences), RPI rankings are in parentheses and are according to www.kenpom.com):

America East: UM-Balt. County (27)
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville (28)
Big Sky: Northern Arizona (25)
Big South: UNC-Asheville (26)
Big West: (20)
Colonial: Virginia Commonwealth (14)
MAAC (19):
MEAC: Hampton (30)
NEC: Wagner (24)
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay (29)
Patriot: Holy Cross (21)
Southern: Georgia Southern (16)
Southland: Stephen F. Austin (21)
SWAC: Jackson State (32)
Summit: IUPUI (22)
Sun Belt: North Texas (15)

LOCKS:

Note: ALL RECORDS AND RANKINGS ARE AS OF MONDAY NIGHT.

Here’s the math: 31 Autos + 3 bids (presumably!) taken if you assume that the locks take the automatic bids from the teams above = 34 spots. Here are the 31 (in order) remaining teams that fill up the brackets and the teams that just miss out (for now)…

(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Record vs. RPI Top 50)

Here’s the first group of teams. They are all ranked 25th or better in the RPI, and while the RPI is not a perfect system, I do always have one rule: If you’re in the top 25 teams in the RPI, you deserve to get into The Tournament. The system is built too well to deny anyone that can crack this group.

(18-4, 15, 5-1) We all know how much I love them. Let’s move on before I start with the groping.

(17-4, 22, 3-3) They slip from the group above because they’ve gotten sloppy. Washington State can miss The Tournament—it would take a helluva lot—but they can miss it.

(18-3, 17, 3-1) Their RPI was once at 6, but they’re doing just fine after the defeat of Gonzaga. A lock? I want to, but there’s too much ground to be lost by losing to such terrible teams that a “lock” label for this team has to wait at least another two weeks.

(19-2, 23, 1-0) Deserves all the credit they’re not getting. Much like…

(18-1, 8, 1-1) Sure, everyone else in the Missouri Valley is underachieving, but this is the season where they get a real team that can do a lot of damage in The Tournament. Once they reach 20-1 against D-I opponents, I’ll lock ‘em up. (Different rules for smaller schools, you know.)

(18-3, 18, 3-1) If you haven’t seen Stanford play yet, please do. What a turnaround from the dreadful performance against Louisville in last year’s first round.

(17-6, 24, 4-5) Sure they have a below .500 record against the Top 50 BUT, all but one of their losses is against said 50. If you’re team’s going to lose, wouldn’t you prefer it be in that type of company? Louisville should be a lock by next week.

(18-3, 14, 2-3) Badgers are right there, but the upcoming game against Purdue on Saturday (who beat them) is where I want to see them prove that they’re a lock.

(19-3, 24, 2-1) They’ve defeated Syracuse, UAB and Providence, in case you hadn’t been paying attention. Rhode Island will be in my lock category if they can defeat UMass, Fordham and Temple (all road games) in the next six days.

(16-5, 16, 4-4) From 0-3 against RPI Top 50 to 5-4. No other team will see a meteoric rise in two weeks this entire season like what UConn has done for themselves just now. Do they stumble at Syracuse tonight?

(16-4, 20, 4-1) I’m not liking what I’m seeing, but I can’t argue with what the paper shows me right now. (See Arizona below.)

(15-5, 13, 3-3) They’ve lost four of their last five (just recently to Rhode Island this past weekend), but Dayton has developed quite the list of players on their slate of opponents past. Beat the La Salles, Temples and George Washingtons and everything should be gravy.

(18-4, 11, 2-3) I wanted to see how they played against Mississippi and Florida before I further evaluated them. Well, they lost both. Still, they are a team that’s 18-4, and though I don’t predict how they’ll DO in The Tournament (they are covered in that 12-over-5 smell right now), I still must keep them here.

(14-7, 7, 4-4) Their losses match their RPI—but that number is seven! Crazy! Sometimes the RPI is quite frustrating. I’ll keep the Wildcats here, but I don’t like it. Fact is: I have to keep them here because no team is being left out of The Tournament with the kind of profile that they’ve built up. First round bust? Possibly. Tournament snub? No chance.

(16-5, 21, 3-2) They looked terrible on the road against UConn. No sense of synchronization without Levance Fields, that’s for sure.

(14-7, 25, 2-4) Eh…UMass has dropped three-of-four and has red-hot Rhode Island tonight. It’s getting a little hot in the room for the M’Men.

A LEVEL BELOW:

(17-4, 33, 3-3) First they were high, then they dipped, now they’re about where they should be. ACIE LAW IV is gone, so this team gets a pass this year with that and new man Mark Turgeon drawing on the white board. This team’s too steady to play itself out of at-large contention anyway.

(15-6, 31, 4-5) All the makings of the Sweet 16 team that your buddies never talk about.

(16-5, 38, 2-1) Three straight wins and up the ladder they climb.

(16-4, 47, 3-3) I can’t withhold the Irish from being above the Seed Line again after they rolled off wins against Villanova, Providence and DePaul.

(14-5, 32, 3-2) A win over Kansas will almost definitely keep them above sea level for the remainder of the season.

(18-4, 49, 1-3) Eyeball test alone tells me they deserve to be in the field on February 5. March 5? That’s a ways away.

(15-5, 29, 3-5) It’s simple: Dominic James’ health and performance will be the deciding factor for this team’s season.

(15-5, 27, 2-4) There will be no repeat of last year’s letdown.

(16-4, 28, 1-2) Wow. Vegas has skyrocketed and suddenly finds themselves at near-lock status. Need a little more info? They’ve won 10 of their past 11 and have a non-con RPI of 45.

(14-7, 42, 2-5) I don’t like them; I just don’t. BUT their resume stands up pretty strong at the moment. In the end, I’ll probably have to put them around 30th (out of 34) in the at-large power poll.

(15-4, 34, 2-4) Baylor is as crazy as a fish out of water.

(15-7, 26, 2-6) Yeah, they’re still doing just fine, but you kind of wonder how they got on the list to get into the party, right?

(17-6, 30, 2-5) They lost their first conference game on February 4. This is a bad thing for the Bulldogs, who are used to tearing through the league. They’re starting to flirt with being left out (hey, you gotta win SOME of your marquee games), but that is still not the issue at hand here.

(16-4, 35, 0-2) I won’t punish them for a two point loss against North Texas. This team has won 14 of 15 and, in my opinion, in The Tournament was decided today, they deserve an at-large bid.

(15-5, 41, 2-2) Break up the freaking Hawks. Seven straight wins is leading up to a collision course with Xavier on Sunday. But first, they can’t overlook their game against Duquesne on Wednesday.

——————–SEED 66 LINE———————–

NOTE: Consider the fact that there will be a couple more one-bid leagues that enter the fold, so a few of these teams could jump up above the line by late February/early March.

(17-5, 50, 3-2) We’re goin’ streaking! Boilers have reeled seven in a row to become relevant.

(15-6, 44, 2-5) Many love what’s happening to Bobby Huggins at West Virgina in this, his first season. No, no, not for the decent record and success, but for the bad losses and flourishing Kansas State program that he abandoned.

(17-5, 46, 1-2) A tough loss to Toledo doesn’t skew my vision of this team. Go Golden Flashes.

(13-8, 56, 3-4) Each week they bump down a notch. The Pac-1o shouldn’t be any guarantee to get six bids in. Yes, I really believe that.

(14-7, 72, 2-4) Speaking of that Pac-10, Arizona State fans must be feeling in their stomachs what you go through when you take your foot off the gas after hitting a road with a hill. (Long sentence there, I know). After winning 10 straight, the Sun Devils have lost five in a row and have Arizona and Stanford next up. Gut-check time, much?

(16-7, 36, 1-5) They get the good win on the road against Villanova, but that’s starting to look worse and worse. Syracuse has road games against Louisville, Notre Dame and Seton Hall. If they want some wiggle room heading into the Big East tournament, then they’ve gotta win two of those three games and can only afford a slip-up at home against maybe Georgetown or Pitt (if they have Fields back by then).

(17-5, 45, 1-3) After a disappearance, BYU comes back due to their solid 6-1 record in the Mountain West. They get two more gimmes (Texas Christian, Colorado State) are in the immediate future.

(15-6, 52, 2-1) RPI bring-me-downers are due up on the schedule: Drexel, Old Dominion, Towson, UNC-Wilmington, Delaware. Any loss there will boot Mason from the club.

(15-6, 51, 1-2) They haven’t lost since the last edition of this post. Why bump them now?

(13-7, 68, 2-3) They haven’t lost a “bad” (200 RPI or lower) game and are completely flying under the radar. But I need some consistency! They’ve flip-flopped the result of their past five games!

(13-7, 70, 2-4) They tease you into thinking that they’re Pac-10 wannabes, then go out and win a couple on the road like they did against the Washington schools. Sweep the state below this week and you may earn yourself a seat at the meetings, Cal.

(13-8, 38, 2-5) From 3-0 against the RPI Top 50 to 2-5? Four losses in a row? God, get this team out of my face. They’re burning my retinas.

(14-8, 66, 1-2) The Terps make their first appearance this year because they’ve really stepped up and made themselves pretty respectable. I’m just waiting for the bottom to fall out.

 

(16-6, 64, 0-3) Slipping fast…

(14-7, 43, 2-4) They still get Duke and Carolina at home before the year’s done.

(15-7, 47, 1-6) How good is The Hall, really? They just lost by 12 to Georgetown, though they have a win against Louisville that’s only looking better by the day, Defeats over Virginia. Losses to Saint Mary’s (not bad), N.C. State (getting worse) and Penn State (eek). Take advantage of the schedule makers, Seton Hall.

(14-7, 59, 1-5) They were once 0-3 against Top 50 teams, now they’re a mere 1-5. You can’t say that the Bulldogs don’t get their chances. A current 5-2 record inside the SEC indicates that par for the course could get them a pity bid. I still need to see a lot more.

(14-6, 39, 1-3) The ‘Canes were once so solid. What have you done for me lately? Diddly poo—they’ve lost five of their last six.

(13-7, 88, 2-1) Their RPI has dipped since their last mention, and they’re hanging on by a thread at this point. Games against big boys Dayton (road) and Xavier (home) occupy their next two Wednesdays. They most certainly need to win one of those games to stick around these here parts.

(15-6, 48, 0-3) Illinois State needs to practically roll off all but two wins to end their season and get some at-large consideration. I haven’t seen them play at ALL so I can’t speak to their true ability, but I’ll keep them around for one more week.

(12-9, 67, 2-3) Fading into Bolivian.

(14-6, 61, 0-4) I want to throw them out of here, but they’re non-con SOS is still good enough (73 is a lot better than a lot of teams on this list) to keep them from falling off the list.

(15-6, 74, 0-1) Look who’s back. I suppose the Blazers (only one loss in C-USA) still get their team considered with Memphis on the schedule (and what a win that would do for them).

(16-5, 58, 0-2) Pity mention. They’re clubhouse leaders in the CAA, but it’s going to take more than that.

(14-8, 62, 0-3) Bottom of the barrel. They’ve got to roll off six of their final eight wins to get to 20 and then win at least two in the ACC brackets.

Tweet This Post