This feature is not about projecting the field or anticipating what might happen. No, this is how I see the field of 65 and who I think should be in. After all, we all complain about who WE think should have/should not have gotten in on Aftermath Monday. All of this is according to my eyes and my judgment. And no, I do not read any Bracketology. As I’ve stated before, Lunardi is just too good at what he does that he takes the fun out evaluating the field for me.

Locks? Yeah, I’ve got some. What defines a “lock” to me? Simple: If you can afford to lose every single game for the remainder of the season and still be granted an at-large berth despite that, you’re a lock.

I’m litigious with this, I know, but I do it purposefully in order to really be able to get a full scope of the at-large field.

There are now 12 locks. The at-large field after that? We continue to lop off the fat and get a healthier set of 49 teams still rolling around in the cement truck.

There are others, and I call them the “fringers”, that are not even worthy of consideration yet (Kentucky, Akron, Utah State, etc…) but could eventually fight their way into the at-large picture. However, that door is almost closed; those teams have about a week left to enter the discussion. If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com.

Understand that there are only 34 at-large berths handed out each year, and the ratio of locks/bubblers will certainly become a lot tighter once February comes to an end. For the sake of this column, I’m assuming the worst right now. That means that I’m assuming that every single conference tournament will produce a winner that has no at-large chances.

Gone from last week’s edition: Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Villanova, Providence, Charlotte, Wake Forest and Seton Hall. The week before that I rid the list of: Texas Tech, Minnesota, Virginia, Creighton, Boston College, Florida State). Those schools could enter back into the fold, but they’re not there today. For all of your NCAA Tournament questions, needs and curiosities, follow me.

 

Only room for one (16 conferences):

America East
Atlantic Sun
Big Sky
Big South
Big West
Colonial
MAAC
MEAC
NEC
Ohio Valley
Patriot
Southern
Southland
SWAC
Summit
Sun Belt

LOCKS:

Note: ALMOST ALL RECORDS AND RANKINGS ARE AS OF TUESDAY NIGHT.

Here’s the math: 31 autos + 12 locks = 22 theoretical available bids. That is if you assume that the auto bids are taken by a team that isn’t likely to be selected as an at-large. Here are the 22 (in order) remaining teams that fill up the brackets and the teams that just miss out (for now)…

(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Record vs. RPI Top 50)

Here’s the first group of teams (14). They are all ranked 25th or better in the RPI, and while the RPI is not a perfect system, I do always have one rule: If you’re in the top 25 teams in the RPI, you deserve to get into The Tournament. The system is built too well to deny anyone that can crack this group.

(21-4, 11, 5-1) I’m almost ready to make the a lock. There’s just been a lot of close wins here, so I want to see them hit the 23-win plateau (a standard number, I know) before I put them with the boys above.

(22-2, 18, 1-0) Like Xavier, the Bulldogs are on the cusp. Listen, I know you think they’ve gotta be a lock, but if they lost their final seven games, they wouldn’t necessarily be in The Tournament. Agreed?

(19-6, 16, 5-4) An impressive win away from becoming a lock. It’s crazy how much L’ville has turned their season around since David Padgett came back.

(20-2, 8, 4-1) The loss to Southern Illinois hurts, but it’ll take much more to knock Drake out of the picture. Like, a lot more.

(18-5, 10, 5-4) Probably the third-hottest team in the country (behind Memphis, Purdue), UConn, like Duke, has come up from behind all of us and grabbed our shoulders. We don’t like it, but it could be that much sweeter to see them bow out early in The Tournament this year.

(18-5, 22, 5-4) Still holding on to their position, but they’ve got to start winning some games in a more impressive style or else they’ll end up with a seed worse than they think they’re deserving of.

(21-4, 12, 2-3) Everyone doesn’t like their chances in March because they can’t do any damage on the road. Still, they’ve manipulated the computers and just destroyed an on-the-come Kentucky team by 41 points on Tuesday night. They’re in.

(18-5, 15, 3-2) Two more close wins, but the numbers are up and Pittsburgh is almost in like Flint.

(20-3, 20, 3-1) They look a lot better than perennial WCC Big Boy Gonzaga right now. Patty Mills is one of the five best point guards in the country and should be able to get St. Mary’s a nice 7 , maybe 6, seed before it’s all said and done.

(19-4, 25, 4-3) A&M appears to be out of the fog and in the clear. They had their three game losing streak (Texas Tech, Kansas State Baylor) and have now won five straight. An easy one this weekend at home against Oklahoma State is followed by a tough road game at Texas on Monday. If the Aggies win both of those games, they’ll be a lock.

(14-8, 14, 4-5) Rare is the case when your loss total is lower than your RPI number, but it happens with the Wildcats. I’ll keep U of A here, but I don’t like it. Fact is: I have to keep them here because no team is being left out of The Tournament with the kind of profile that they’ve built up. First round bust? Possibly. Tournament snub? No chance.

(16-6, 24, 3-5) The Tigers would be a lock for The Tournament if they closed out both of their games against North Carolina. Instead, they’re 16-6 instead of 18-4 and still could play themselves into a double-digit seed. Nevertheless, they’re sturdy for now.

(16-6, 22, 2-6) Before you pull an eyebrow muscle, let’s go big picture: Marquette has defeated Wisconsin..Notre Dame..Providence…jeez, these wins keep getting less impressive. Yeah, I gotta just go with history here. For now, they have to be in in this group.

(15-8, 23, 3-4) I just don’t get how a low-power conference team that’s only seven games over .500 can be an RPI top 25 team in mid-February.

A LEVEL BELOW (8):

(20-5, 32, 5-2) The Boilers are freaking blazing. How hot? Try 10 straight.

(17-6, 30, 4-2) Arkansas is still solid in my book. A win on the road against Miss. St. this weekend would also go a long way.

(18-5, 26, 4-4) Tough loss on the road to sizzling UConn doesn’t kill the Irish.

(16-6, 34, 3-3) A win over Kansas will almost definitely keep them above sea level for the remainder of the season. The loss to Texas Tech will almost be a non-factor.

(15-8, 36, 3-6) A home game on Saturday is the type of win that would almost definitely put USC into The Tournament.

(17-6, 33, 3-3) The Rebels had a bad loss last night to Alabama and have gone 4-6 since their perfect start. They smell terrible right now.

(18-4, 32, 1-2) I’ve developed an affection for South Alabama.

(20-5, 27, 1-2) By the skin of the teeth they would still make The Tournament (in my eyes) in a worst case scenario.

——————–SEED 66 LINE———————–

NOTE: Consider the fact that there will be a couple more one-bid leagues that enter the fold and a few locks that win their conference tournaments, so a few of these teams could/will jump up above the line by early March.

 

(18-8, 35, 1-2) I’ve only seen them play once this year, and that was their rough loss against Louisville at the beginning of the season. I’ve got to have them just missing out right now due to their numbers compared to teams above them.

(16-7, 41, 2-4) They surpassed the seed line last week, but I’ve tightened up the process here, so I’ll leave them just out for now. If they continue on their current pace, they’ll help the A-10 get four bids.

(20-5, 55, 1-2) Three more wins in a row for the Flashes has me squarely plopped on their bandwagon.

(16-6, 37, 2-5) When you’re non-con SOS is 182, you can’t go losing back-to-back games and expect to feel all that comfortable.

(14-9, 45, 3-5) If Oregon gets in, do you believe, like I do, that they’re almost definitely a first round out?

(19-5, 39, 1-3) Don’t love their 113th rank in the SOS, but they can definitely fight their way into the good side of the at-large picture due to their solid record in the MWC.

(16-8, 44, 4-6) Longar Longar is done and Oklahoma has dropped three-of-four. The Sooners may have stubbed their toe too hard here and may not be able to recover.

(19-6, 41, 2-5) The UConn win keeps getting better and better. What shines badly upon the Bulldogs is that they’ve lost their past four games (dating back to Oklahoma on Dec. 20) against Top 50 opponents.

(15-7, 42, 2-6) They actually haven’t played a game since the last edition, so I’ll keep them on the outside looking in.

(16-9, 56, 2-2) Not an impressive loss to Duke last night, but if you believe what Mike Patrick says (and who doesn’t?) Maryland is going to be quite the tough out in March! Please. The Terps are far from a shoo-in.

(19-6, 59, 0-3) An RPI in the 60s from a team in the Mountain West isn’t going to merit a bid. They do avoid spraining their ankle against San Diego State last night.

(16-7, 17, 3-3) What to do with Dayton? My oh my how far they’ve fallen. Though at the time of this post their RPI was above 25, I know it will fall after their loss to Duquesne. What a freaking nosedive, and it all appears to be because of their injuries. The Flyers have lost six of their last eight and are 4-6 in conference. Frankly, how can I keep them on the list and not Duquesne (who beat Dayton last night)?

(16-7, 91, 1-5) There ya go. Duquesne has the same record as Dayton and a 6-4 record in the A-10, so I have to put them back here.

(19-6, 60, 1-4) They’ve gone 1-2 and looked pretty bad in the past week. That means they’ll probably need to get to 25 wins to deserve a bid from me.

(16-7, 53, 1-5) They were once 0-3 against Top 50 teams, now they’re a mere 1-5. You can’t say that the Bulldogs don’t get their chances. If they keep winning they’ll likely just miss out, but that’s not a guarantee.

(17-8, 38, 0-7) The worm turns on the Buckeyes, who are go from 2-4 to 0-7 against Top 50 opponents. Some (like Andy Katz) think Ohio State is in right now. I do not.

(15-7, 72, 4-4) How many more chances do we give the Sun Devils?

(15-7, 40, 1-3) Miami has lost six of their last eight and still needs to do a lot more to prove they’re worthy.

(14-8, 70, 2-6) Gonna have to do better than continue to split their weekend road games.

(17-7, 49, 0-3) Illinois State needs to practically roll off all but two wins to end their season and get some at-large consideration. I haven’t seen them play at ALL so I can’t speak to their true ability, but I’ll still keep them around.

(16-8, 58, 0-2) Oogly loss to bottom feeder Eastern Michigan almost cripples the Bobcats.

(17-7, 74, 0-1) Double-OT loss to 183rd-ranked Southern Miss? Ouchies.

(15-8, 48, 2-4) They still get Duke and Carolina at home before the year’s done, but I want to kick them off this list so badly.

(17-7, 59, 2-0) Last week I said that a loss to an RPI downer (in this case Old Dominion) would boot Mason from the club. Sue me.

(16-9, 46, 1-6) I hate to say this, because I’ve got plenty of friends from Syracuse, but the Orange(men) are on the edge of the cliff.

(19-5, 57, 0-2) They haven’t lost since last week, so I can’t knock them out.

(17-6, 60, 0-4) What to do with Davidson, who is 16-0 and bulldozing their way through the Southern Conference? They’re making their first appearance, so I’m putting them at the very bottom, but their resume is very hard to figure: They did zilch against their name opponents (UCLA, North Carolina, Duke, Charlotte) this year. The Close-But-No-Cigar rule certainly has to apply.

Thursday, February 14th, 2008 @ 11:29 am Dancing on the Bubble
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