Do not hate on Freddy.

It really dawned on my yesterday: My God I cannot wait for Greg Gumbel’s voice on March 16.

Again: this feature is not about projecting the field or anticipating what might happen. No, this is how I see the field of 65 and who I think should be in right now. After all, we all complain about who WE think should have/should not have gotten in on Aftermath Monday. And no, I do not read any Bracketology. As I’ve stated before, Lunardi is just too good at what he does that he takes the fun out evaluating the field for me.

What defines a “lock” to me? Simple: If you can afford to lose every single game for the remainder of the season and still be granted an at-large berth despite that, you’re a lock.

I’m litigious with this, I know, but I do it purposefully in order to really be able to get a full scope of the at-large field.

Understand that there are only 34 at-large berths handed out each year, and the ratio of locks/bubblers will certainly become a lot tighter once February comes to an end. For the sake of this column, I’m assuming the worst right now. That means that I’m assuming that every single conference tournament will produce a winner that has no at-large chances.

There are now 15 locks. The at-large field after that? We’ve trimmed it down to 45 teams.

The math: 34 at-large berths - 15 locks= 19 spots left. The good news? Those spots will inevitably grow because some of the locks will earn the auto bids, clearing up more room for bubble teams. God, I love March.

If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com. Or you can just post in the comments, which is always welcomed.

Gone from last week’s edition: North Carolina State, Duquesne, George Mason and Illinois State. Previous dumpees in the past two weeks: Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Providence, Charlotte, Wake Forest and Seton Hall. Texas Tech, Minnesota, Virginia, Creighton, Boston College, Florida State. Villanova and Wake Forest are back from the dead. Those schools could enter back into the fold, but it’s going to take a lot. For all of your NCAA Tournament questions, needs and curiosities, follow me.

Only room for one (17 conferences):

America East
Atlantic Sun
Big Sky
Big South
Big West
MAAC
MEAC
Missouri Valley
NEC
Ohio Valley
Patriot
Southern
Southland
SWAC
Summit
Sun Belt
WAC

LOCKS:

Note: ALL RECORDS AND RANKINGS ARE AS OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

Here are the 19 (in order) remaining teams that fill up the brackets and the teams that just miss out (for now)…

(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Record vs. RPI Top 50)

RPI Top 25 (10). Say what you will about the RPI, the system is too strong to deny anyone selection that can crack this group.

(21-5, 11, 6-4) Almost a lock, but an utter collapse (not going to happen) would make the committee take a strong look at them.

(20-5, 22, 4-4) They’ll be back to lock status if they sweep the ‘Zona schools. Anything short of that keeps them in place.

(21-3, 15, 0-1) Yeah, they’re slipping, but The Drake is fine. What really hurts them is the fact that they go from 4-1 against RPI Top 50 teams to 0-1 with the fall of their SOS (ranked 83rd). For what it’s worth, they’re 7-2 against Top 100. Beating Butler would definitely make them a lock in my book.

(22-4, 10, 2-2) Vanderbilt cannot play that well on the road, so that should be pretty interesting come March, but they’re almost a lock, believe it or not.

(15-9, 18, 5-5) They may have been jobbed against Stanford, but that’s the story of this team: They lose close, but still remain relevant. It’s that damn SOS (ranked #1).

(18-6, 20, 3-3) A terrible loss on a rare Friday night game against Marquette. Do you think you can trust this team? Have we ever been able to trust Pittsburgh in the past eight years? Think about it: in almost every year since 2000, if you looked at how they were covered and predicted in January or February, you would’ve sworn that they would have HAD to make at least one Final Four. Never happened.

(18-7, 25, 2-5) Let’s not forget about the Tigers—admit it, you have—who had a rough, yet predictable loss to Florida State on Tuesday. Hey, I’m not comfortable having them here either, but Top 25 is Top 25.

(19-5, 24, 4-4) Interesting game tonight against Pittsburgh, then a huge one on Sunday against Syracuse. Winning both of those games would certainly mean the Irish was a lock.

(18-6, 16, 3-6) They started off the season hot with a tough, close loss to Duke. Then they did a bit of a swan dive for a few games in January. It appears Marquette’s back and almost ready to be a lock. Defeating Rutgers and putting Villanova out to pasture would have them at 20-6, locking them up.

(17-7, 23, 3-3) After losing six of eight games, Dayton has been able to get the flotation device under themselves. Look ahead and you’ll see they play La Salle, who just felled St. Joseph’s.

A LEVEL BELOW (9):

(21-6, 27, 5-3) Kelvin Sampson’s curtain call was the end of the 11-game winning streak for the Boilermakers. Do you think they should be a lock? I don’t know, I need just one more win. After all, their SOS is 82nd.

(22-3, 26, 2-1) How’s a three-loss team not a lock? See: Drake.

(17-7, 36, 3-3) It’s going to be hard for them to fall from contention, but they continue to befuddle us with losses like the Nebraska one last night.

(15-9, 36, 2-7) They couldn’t get it done against Uck-Luh on Saturday, but their RPI doesn’t shift.

(21-5, 27, 2-3) BYU is slowly becoming the at-large lock that you’ll completely be surprised by in March. Start paying attention now.

(19-6, 38, 4-4) Last week I said, “A&M appears to be out of the fog and in the clear.” This week: Not so much. Texas thoroughly whooped the Aggies after they completely laid an egg against Oklahoma State. They’re quite the rock 19-6 team, you know.

(18-8, 29, 5-6) They sweep the season series with Baylor, so they’ll probably always trump the Bears from here on out. I have them in based upon their overall record, RPI, Top 50 wins and eyeball test. That’s really what it should all come down to.

(22-5, 41, 0-2) No Top 50 wins, but no matter: they’re 6-1 vs. 51-100 teams. The Golden Flashes are definitely one of the 34 best non-auto teams in the country.

(18-7, 34, 4-3) There’s not a lot of sexy to this team, but they are one of the 34 best at-large candidates. The 4-3 record is also a bonus.

 

——————–SEED 66 LINE———————–

NOTE: Consider the fact that there will be a couple more one-bid leagues that enter the fold and a few locks that win their conference tournaments, so a few of these teams could/will jump up above the line by early March.

(20-6, 31, 2-3) A tough home loss to Xavier has me just BARELY keeping Rhodey out of the process right now. They have to win at least one of their next two home games: UMass tonight and then St. Joe’s on Sunday.

(16-8, 53, 2-3) I know, I know, I’ve only got one A-10 team in The Tournament right now and that’s clearly not going to be the case. I just want to see how things shape up in the next 96 hours. If The Dance started tomorrow then no, I would not have anyone except Xavier in right now. By Sunday, I’ll probably have three teams in.

(16-9, 40, 4-2) A win over Rhode Island would be monumental towards their chances.

(15-7, 40, 1-3) Their defeat of Duke almost sneaks them in the back door. A little more consistency down the stretch should mean a berth.

(18-7, 43, 4-3) They get a win they needed last night against Mississippi State. Can they continue to tread water for the next three weeks? A loss against Kentucky next Wednesday would only continue to keep the SEC a mystery.

(19-5, 37, 2-2) Here’s what sucks if you’re South Alabama: You’re South Alabama—the loss to Middle Tennessee State a week ago could be damaged that is irreversible. If they win out it but lose in the Sun Belt final, it could be interesting.

(18-6, 34, 1-3) A seven-loss season for the Rebs would definitely mean a bid, but they’re anything but a future seven-loss team. Still watching here…

(21-6, 33, 2-5) Keep chugging along until that March 1 meeting with Saint Mary’s. The UConn win keeps getting better and better.

(16-8, 72, 4-4) Same ol’ story: Sun Devils follow a really nice win (over Stanford) would an OK loss (against Cal). ASU can’t afford to exchange buckets like this and expect to win in the end.

(17-8, 39, 2-6) Everyone likes WVU to be in right now. They’ve lost four of their last seven and are eighth in the Big East. I don’t like them at all right now.

(17-8, 46, 2-6) The SEC just isn’t that good this year and I don’t think the Bulldogs deserve at-large privileges after losing to in-state rival Ole Miss last night.

(21-6, 51, 0-3) They’re third in pecking order from the MWC due to the fact that they’ve lost both of their games against BYU and UNLV. Chances are upcoming to get revenge wins against both schools.

(15-9, 74, 2-6) I honestly don’t know if they’re better than Arizona State despite their win, but they’ve got less impressive numbers, so they’re a notch below.

(17-10, 62, 1-3) Shame on me. I haven’t liked this team all year, then I finally give them some credit last week, and they embarass themselves with that performance against Virginia Tech last night. Miami, Wake, Clemson and Virginia remain on their schedule. For me to put this Maryland team in, they’ll have to go 3-1 against those teams and win a game in the ACC tourney.

(16-9, 53,  3-4)  It’s not over yet for Scottie Reynolds and the Wildcats.  ‘Nova enters back into the fold with their convincing defeat over West Virginia. UConn, Marquette, Louisville are the next three on the docket. THEY. HAVE. THEIR. CHANCES.

(20-7, 57, 1-5) Last week I said that they’d need to get to 25 wins to get a bid from me and I still believe that. The problem? They’ve got four regular season games left, so Atlanta will have to be of some help.

(17-10, 46, 1-7) Syracuse needs to boost that 1-7 against Top 50 opponents to at least 3-8 by season’s end if they want to advance. Anything less than that will mean a ‘07, redux.

(15-10, 51, 3-6) Chances slipping by the week…

(17-9, 45, 1-7) Hideous loss to Michigan last weekend sends them plummeting.

(16-8, 42, 2-7) Baylor was once a great potential Tournament story. Now they cannot steal a win—they’ve lost four in a row and six of seven!

(16-8, 64, 3-2 ) Wake beats Duke. Wake makes list.

(18-8, 67, 1-2) The win over Houston last night does wonders for UAB because these two teams don’t meet again. It’s tough to think C-USA will get two bids, but UAB, after their brutal loss to Memphis on Saturday, could still sneak in. It’d probably take a C-USA title game loss to the Tigers, but they could still do it.

(19-6, 58, 0-3) Everyone’s really starting to panic about what to do with Davidson. I think they’ll win the SoCon tournament and leave this to be a non-issue.

(17-9, 62, 2-3) Their Top 50 record saves them.

(20-6, 60, 1-2) Losing to Old Dominion has the Rams tugging at straws.

 

 

 

Thursday, February 21st, 2008 @ 11:35 am Dancing on the Bubble
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