February ends with a monstrous jump. We go from 15 to 22 locks in a week, which really tightens up that bubble. All the red means there’s blood in the water. Or something.

I remind you: this feature is not about projecting the field or anticipating what might happen. No, this is how I see the field of 65 and who I think should be in right now. After all, we all complain about who WE think should have/should not have gotten in on Aftermath Monday. And no, I do not read any Bracketology. As I’ve stated before, Lunardi is just too good at what he does that he takes the fun out evaluating the field for me.

There are only 34 at-large berths handed out each year, but you have to know that by now. For the sake of this column, I’m assuming the worst right now. That means that I’m assuming that every single conference tournament will produce a winner that has no at-large chances. Those rules will next week. This is bare bones at-large candidacy right now.

There are now 22 locks. The at-large field after that? We’re currently at 36 teams.

The math: 34 at-large berths - 22 locks= 8 spots left. The good news? Those spots will inevitably grow because some of the locks will earn the auto bids, clearing up more room for bubble teams. God, I love March.

If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com. Or you can just post in the comments, which is always encouraged.

Gone from last week’s edition: Oregon and Rhode Island. Back: Virginia Tech. Finally showing up: Kentucky. For all of your NCAA Tournament questions, needs and curiosities, follow me.

LOCKS:

Note: ALL RECORDS AND RANKINGS ARE AS OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

Here are the eight (in order) remaining teams that fill up the brackets and the teams that just miss out (for now)…

 

(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Record vs. RPI Top 50)

RPI Top 25 (4). Anyone left in the RPI Top 25 next week will almost definitely just be lifted to lock status. I want to see one more win from the following..

(19-7, 22, 3-5) Just win ONE more to convince me and put you in the good.

(16-10, 17, 5-5) Win a couple of tough games here please. How tough will it be to pick against AZ when they’re lined up against a seemingly inferior team. Remember that 8/9 game against Seton Hall in…2000? I think? This team could be like that one in the sense that you couldn’t possibly see this talent losing in the first round, but it’s possible.

(19-8, 25, 3-5) Twenty-win plateau will make Pitt a lock. Syracuse, West Virginia and DePaul remain on the schedule.

(22-6, 23, 2-3) Hey, Mormons! BYU is becoming the at-large lock that you’ll completely be surprised by in March. Start paying attention now.

A LEVEL BELOW (4):

(17-9, 39, 3-7) They close out their season with: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Stanford. Then there’s the Pac-10 tournament. Southern Cal is guaranteed a bid by winning two of the minimum five games they have left.

(23-5, 28, 2-2) Everyone at ESPN acknowledges how big the win for KSU was over Saint Mary’s during BracketBusters. I completely agree. The Golden Flashes are definitely one of the 34 best non-auto teams in the country.

(23-4, 30, 2-3) The Gaels don’t get the job done against Kent State. Why should they be ahead of them right now? What’s their best wins? Drake and Gonzaga.

(17-9, 42, 3-4) K-State has the best player in the nation. They’re making The Tournament.

——————–SEED 66 LINE———————–

NOTE: Consider the fact that there will be a couple more one-bid leagues that enter the fold and a few locks that win their conference tournaments, so a few of these teams could/will jump up above the line by next week.

(20-7, 43, 3-4) The tide could turn on this team at any time.

(18-9, 45, 4-3) Bad loss to ‘Bama last night. I keep flip-flopping on this team. I stil have to respect the record and Top 50 statistic.

(18-10, 31, 5-8) Sooners drop two straight (Texas and Nebraska). They sweep the season series with Baylor, so they’ll probably always trump the Bears from here on out. I have them in based upon their overall record, RPI, Top 50 wins and eyeball test. Thirteen games against Top 50 teams is a crazy number at this point in the season. (SOS is 8.)

(17-8, 44, 2-3) They swept UMass, which is now crucial. Avoiding the stupid losses and going par for the course (A-10 semis, minimum) would get the Hawks in.

(18-9, 38, 2-4) This is why the RPI can be head scratching: Last week UMass was 4-2 against the Top 50. They beat Rhode Island and the record flips. Still, they are looking good for the moment.

(18-8, 26, 4-3) A win over Clemson last night would have put them RPI top 25 and probably secured them for March. Now they have to avoid a two-game losing streak on Saturday against Virginia. Seems easy enough, right? Well, let’s wait.

(22-6, 35, 2-5) Defeating Saint Mary’s on Saturday would make them a lock for me.

(17-9, 70, 4-5) The Sun Devils are looking pretty good thanks to the quality of their wins and the fact that the Pac-10 will probably get six this year.

(21-5, 32, 1-2) They beat Western Kentucky to sweep the season with the Towel Wavers and if they win out, but lose in the Sun Belt final, it could be interesting for South Alabama.

(18-8, 33, 3-7) After losing six of seven games, the Bears have won two straight. But wow, look at the record against the Top 50. They’ll have played 1/3 of their schedule against legitimate competition. If they can get one more nice win in there, I’ll have to put them in.

(20-6, 29, 1-3) The only thing keeping them from security is the Top 50 record. A bad loss to Louisville early in the season still lingers.

(19-8, 34, 2-6) Everyone’s hoping Huggins makes The Tournament and dons that mustard yellow suit again.

(19-8, 41, 2-7) If there’s one team that I can’t determine Tournament worthy-ness, it’s this one.

(17-10, 58, 4-6) It’s not over yet for Scottie Reynolds and the Wildcats. Marquette and Louisville are the next three on the docket. THEY. HAVE. THEIR. CHANCES.

(21-7, 51, 1-5) The national champions are still throwing punches.

 

(17-11, 69, 1-5) For me to put this Maryland team in, they’ll have to go 2-1 against Wake Forest, Clemson, Virginia PLUS win two games in the ACC tourney

(17-11, 49, 2-7) They didn’t look that good against Notre Dame on Sunday. The Orange have three games remaining plus the MSG trip. Getting to 20 wins isn’t a guaranteed trip (remember last year?), but I think if they did I’d really have to consider putting them in.

(16-9, 65, 3-3) Tonight’s game against Maryland determines their fate.

(22-7, 55, 0-4) They’re third in pecking order from the MWC due to the fact that they’ve lost both of their games against BYU and UNLV. Beating UNLV on Tuesday is mandatory.

(17-11, 50, 1-9) Two Big Ten tournament wins is the litmus test now.

(20-8, 56, 0-1) It’d probably take a C-USA title game loss to the Tigers, but the Blazers could still do it.

(21-6, 54, 0-3) Everyone’s really starting to panic about what to do with Davidson. I think they’ll win the SoCon tournament and leave this to be a non-issue.

(18-9, 61, 1-3) They looked back in their win against Mason, but I’m a nice guy, so I’ll give them one last chance.

(22-6, 46, 0-2) They haven’t lost since last week…

(16-10, 62, 4-5) Well, well, well…the Wildcats certainly want to throw a wrench into all of this, don’t they? A nice Top 50 record, but everyone’s seen the bad losses to San Diego and Vanderbilt. Remember that they also have that ugly home defeat against Gardner Webb. Still, they’ve got 10 wins in conference and that merits a look. If they win four more in a row, they’ll probably get a bid.

(17-11, 63, 0-5) No great wins, but they’ve been making a name for themselves again. One loss and they’re done.

(15-10, 83, 2-6) Their conference is saving them. In reality, they have no shot right now, but they can still make their run. The fact is: If Cal got to the Pac-10 title game, they’d probably be selected, regardless of how they end the regular season.

(18-9, 48, 4-3) Don’t let the numbers fool you. This team is clearly on its way out.

 

Thursday, February 28th, 2008 @ 12:02 pm Dancing on the Bubble
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