I’m going twice a week now, so look for this feature on Mondays and Thursdays/Fridays.

I remind you that this is not about projecting the field or anticipating what might happen. No, this is how I see the field of 65 and who I think should be in right now. After all, we all complain about who WE think should have/should not have gotten in on Aftermath Monday. And no, I do not read any Bracketology. As I’ve stated before, Lunardi is just too good at what he does that he takes the fun out evaluating the field for me.

There are only 34 at-large berths handed out each year, but you have to know that by now.

There are now 24 locks. (Welcome, Clemson and Pitt.) The at-large field after that? We’re currently at 31 teams. Here’s where the fun starts. I will assume that all of the conference tournaments will be won by teams that are currently locks. This will open up the most at-large bids possible for now. So this is a best-case scenario. I honestly can’t believe some of the teams I’m putting in right now because of it.

The math: 34 at-large berths - 10 locks (not counting locks taking the auto bids)= 24 spots left.

Where are those 10 locks coming from? I’m assuming the Big 6 plus Memphis (C-USA), Drake (Mizzou Valley), Xavier (A-10) and Gonzaga/St. Mary’s (WCC) are winning their conf. tourneys. The rub? Of those 24 open spots, are taken up by teams that are a win away from being locks. But assume that the bottom four teams are anything but safe.

If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com. Or you can just post in the comments, which is always encouraged.

Gone from last week’s edition: Wake Forest, Ohio, Cal and Ohio State. Still out: Oregon and Rhode Island. For all of your NCAA Tournament questions, needs and curiosities, follow me.

LOCKS:

Note: ALL RECORDS AND RANKINGS ARE AS OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

Here are the 24 (in order) remaining teams that fill up the brackets and the teams that just miss out (for now)…

(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Record vs. RPI Top 50)

One win away (6): One more W will mean lock status.

(23-6, 31, 3-6) It’s a matter of logistics, Zags fans. Just win one more to avoid negating the good win over Saint Mary’s on Saturday.

(19-9, 38, 5-3) Their 5-3 record against quality teams combined with a defeat of Mississippi tomorrow would put them in.

(19-10, 30, 8-7) They sweep the season series with Baylor, so they’ll probably always trump the Bears from here on out. I have them in based upon their overall record, RPI, Top 50 wins and eyeball test. Fifteen games against Top 50 teams is a crazy number at this point in the season. (SOS is 8.) Blake Griffin is out until The Tournament start (supposedly) so we’ll see how that effects seeding.

(23-6, 23, 2-3) Wyoming and TCU remain on the schedule. They should take care of business and be with the boys above by the end of this week.

(19-8, 26, 4-3) Yes, the field might be this weak this year. This Miami team, which has been a bit of a roller coaster this year, would likely be in if they take care of business against Boston College (who should have beaten North Carolina) at home on Wednesday.

(22-6, 44, 0-3) A perfect conference record (20-0) almost warrants an at-large. Winning one game (which would be in the semis) would have me putting them in, regardless.

Two wins away (7):Just to be safe about things.

(18-10, 40, 4-7) Great win over ‘Zona, this is just a matter of time. No one wants to see their name matched up against the Trojans in the first round.

(16-12, 25, 5-7) The Wildcats are 16-12! Can we stop apologizing for their schedule and close losses and realize the fact that this team lacks a killer instinct?

(23-6, 34, 2-2) The loss to Bowling Green doesn’t kill them, but beating both Miami (OH) and Akron—neither of which will be easy to do—to finish their schedule would make them a lock.

(18-10, 67, 5-6) The Sun Devils are looking pretty good thanks to the quality of their wins and the fact that the Pac-10 will probably get six this year. Still, Stanford had an RPI in this ballpark and got housed by Louisville in the first round last year.

(20-8, 46, 3-6) They finish their schedule with Kansas and Baylor. I don’t think they’ll win both, but if they did, those two wins would make them a lock.

(21-6, 27, 1-3) You couldn’t keep Vegas out if they finished their regular season in the Mountain West with a 23-6 record.

(23-6, 43, 0-2) Like Davidson, they keep on winning. I have to reward them for not having lost since Feb. 16. Their regular season is over, so we have to see how they play it out in the CAA tournament.

You’ve got some provin’ to do (10): There’s still plenty of time to mess this up.

(23-5, 32, 2-4) They’ve lost their past two games to bubble teams Kent State and Gonzaga. Getting to the WCC semis would probably get them to The Dance.

(19-8, 33, 4-7) After losing six of seven games, the Bears have won three straight. But wow, look at the record against the Top 50. They’ll have played 1/3 of their schedule against legitimate competition.

(17-10, 42, 3-6) The win over Kansas is still great, and they’ve got the best player in the country, but it still takes a few gut-shot wins to earn your keep.

(19-9, 39, 1-2) How crazy is this: Nothing is certain in the A-10 anymore. You have to think that UMass will be good, as they are No. 2 in the pecking order, but the profile might not hold up if they can’t get a win the A-10 tournament.

(21-5, 32, 1-2) They beat Western Kentucky to sweep the season with the Towel Wavers and if they win out, but lose in the Sun Belt final, it could be interesting for South Alabama. I have to put them above Miss. State, who they beat.

(20-8, 37, 2-7) The Bulldogs are a great bubble team: Losses to Clemson, Southern Illinois, South Alabama and both Miamis; wins against Kentucky and Florida ; splits against Ole Miss and Arkansas.

(19-9, 45, 4-3) I had them out last week, but when looking at the other teams involved right now…I…I guess I have to put them in.

(22-7, 53, 1-4) They’re third in pecking order from the MWC due to the fact that they’ve lost both of their games against BYU and UNLV. Beating UNLV on Tuesday is mandatory. I think they’ll do it, so I have them in right now.

(21-8, 51, 0-1) It’d probably take a C-USA title game loss to the Tigers, but the Blazers could still do it. I like them right now.

(16-11, 52, 4-6) A win over Tennessee would have put them in the “win two more” club, but a loss is still a loss. A nice Top 50 record, but everyone’s seen the bad losses to San Diego and Vanderbilt. Remember that they also have that ugly home defeat against Gardner Webb. Still, they’ve got 10 wins in conference and that merits a look. If they win four more in a row, they’ll probably get a bid. I don’t like putting Kentucky in, but their 10 conference wins have to have them in right NOW.

——————–SEED 66 LINE———————–

(18-12, 64, 1-6) The win over Carolina isn’t good enough. An ACC tournament run is mandatory (and probably likely, I can feel it). That loss to Clemson last night was very damaging.

(17-8, 44, 2-3) Just a crushing loss to Temple yesterday. I can’t put St. Joe’s in right now.

(19-9, 41, 1-7) The ‘Eers’ wins haven’t been that impressive inside the conference. A nice showing at MSG would help them. This is the quinessential case of a team needing its conference tournament as a trampoline for making The Dance.

(21-8, 61, 1-5) The national champions are still throwing punches.

(17-11, 60, 3-5) Wildcats can’t make good of their opportunity-laden schedule.

(17-13, 48, 5-7) The Salukis enter the Dancing on the Bubble party for the first time this year mainly because they’re playing like one of the 34 most deserving teams out there. I have to wait and see how their MVC performance plays out though.

(17-12, 57, 1-7) Getting to 20 wins isn’t a guaranteed trip (remember last year?), but I think if they did I’d really have to consider putting them in. Have to beat Seton Hall and Marquette to even get back into the fold.

(17-11, 56, 0-5) No great wins, but they’ve been making a name for themselves again. One loss and they’re done.

Monday, March 3rd, 2008 @ 12:40 pm Dancing on the Bubble
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