My god I love bubble talk. I’m throwing in the keys wins and losses this week so you can compare and contrast.

There are now 28 locks. (Welcome, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Miami and BYU.) The at-large field after that? We’re currently at 27 teams. Here’s where the fun starts … Since I have no reason to believe otherwise, I’ll still assume that all conference tournaments will be won by teams that are locks. (This will open up the most at-large bids possible for now.) So this is a best-case scenario.

I’m assuming the Big 6 plus Memphis (C-USA), Drake (Mizzou Valley), Xavier (A-10) and Gonzaga/St. Mary’s (WCC) are winning their conf. tourneys.

Having done out my own bracket, there are 21 spots left not occupied by locks or auto-bid conferences.

If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com. Or you can just post in the comments, which is always encouraged.

For all of your NCAA Tournament questions, needs and curiosities, follow me.

LOCKS:

Note: ALL RECORDS AND RANKINGS ARE AS OF THURDSAY NIGHT.

Here are the 17 (in order) remaining teams that fill up the brackets and the teams that just miss out (for now)…

(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Record vs. RPI Top 50)

One win away (5): One more W will mean lock status.

(19-10, 39, 3-7) It’s just a matter of time.
Notable wins: UCLA, Oklahoma
Notable losses: Mercer, Kansas, Memphis

(19-10, 41, 5-5) It would take a huge collapse down the stretch to keep the ‘Backs out of it.
Notable wins: Vanderbilt, Baylor, VCU
Notable losses: Appalachian State, Providence, South Carolina

(24-6, 31, 2-2) Beating Akron—not easy to do—to finish their schedule would make them a lock.
Notable wins: St. Mary’s, Illinois State, George Mason
Notable losses: Detroit, Xavier, Bowling Green, UNC

(20-9, 42, 6-4) You look at this team and their resume, and you can’t leave them out. I mean, it’d take a true collapse. Beating Georgia on Saturday will do it.
Notable wins: New Mexico, Clemson, South Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas
Notable losses: Auburn twice, LSU, Kentucky

(21-8, 43, 4-6) Stumblin’ to The Tournament’s doorstep.
Notable wins: Texas, Ohio State
Notable losses: Arizona, Kansas State, Nebraska

Two wins away (5): Just to be safe about things.

(20-9, 37, 3-7) Just a blasé team if you ask me. Beat LSU and get an SEC tourney win, that’ll do it.
Notable wins: Kentucky, Florida
Notable losses: South Alabama, Miami (FL), Clemson, Southern Illinois

(22-6, 45, 0-3) A perfect conference record (20-0) almost warrants an at-large. Winning two games (which would put them in the SoCon finals) would probably have me putting them in, regardless. Startling: Zero Top 100 wins.
Notable wins: None
Notable losses: UNC, UCLA, Duke

(17-12, 26, 5-7) Oooh, a win over Oregon State! Arizona can legitimately make the Final Four or lose by 15 in the first round. Also, it’d probably take 14 losses for them to be left out, so that means they’d have to lose to Oregon on Saturday and in the first round of the Pac-10 tournament.
Notable wins: Texas A&M, UNLV, Washington State twice
Notable losses: Memphis, Kansas, Arizona State twice, UCLA twice, Stanford twice

(21-7, 29, 2-4) RPI is good, but there’s not a lot of bragging material. Still, it’d be hard to keep them out if they won two in the MWC tournament. Their splits of BYU and New Mexico nullify any notable wins.
Notable wins: None
Notable losses: Louisville, Arizona, Air Force

(23-6, 44, 0-2) Like Davidson, they keep on winning. I have to reward them for not having lost since Feb. 16. Their regular season is over, so we have to see how they play it out in the CAA tournament.
Notable wins: Maryland, Houston
Notable losses: Miami (FL), Arkansas, James Madison

Bubbilicious (11): There’s still plenty of time to mess this up.

(24-5, 32, 2-3) They’ve lost their past two games to bubble teams Kent State and Gonzaga. Getting to the WCC semis would probably get them to The Dance.
Notable wins: Drake, Oregon
Notable losses: Southern Illinois, Texas, Kent State

(19-9, 40, 4-8) I guess we put them in for now, but another loss could bring up a confusing case.
Notable wins: Notre Dame, Texas A&M
Notable losses: Washington State, Arkansas, Oklahoma twice

(18-10, 46, 3-6) After dropping four straight, the Wildcats finally realized what the hell all of this was about and dispatched of Colorado on Tuesday. I still proclaim they’ll need at least one Big XII tourney win.
Notable wins: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Notable losses: Oregon, Notre Dame, George Mason, Xavier

(20-9, 37, 1-2) You have to think that UMass will be good, as they are No. 2 in the pecking order, but the profile might not hold up if they can’t get a win the A-10 tournament.
Notable wins: Syracuse, Dayton, Rhode Island twice
Notable losses: Fordham, Northern Iowa, St. Joe’s twice

(23-5, 28, 1-2) They beat Western Kentucky to sweep the season with the Towel Wavers and if they win out, but lose in the Sun Belt final, it could be interesting for South Alabama.
Notable wins: Mississippi State, Western Kentucky twice
Notable losses: Mississippi, Vanderbilt, North Texas

(18-11, 72, 5-6) The RPI is flat out brutal. The Oregon loss could come back and haunt them.
Notable wins: Arizona twice, Xavier, Stanford
Notable losses: Illinois, Nebraska, Wash. State and UCLA twice

(23-7, 49, 2-4) I had them in on Monday before they beat Vegas.
Notable wins: UNLV
Notable losses: BYU twice, Ole Miss, TCU

(17-11, 47, 4-6) A win over Tennessee would have put them in the “win two more” club, but a loss is still a loss. A nice Top 50 record, but everyone’s seen the bad losses to San Diego and Vanderbilt. Remember that they also have those ugly home defeats against Gardner-Webb and San Diego. Still, they’ve got 11 wins in conference and that merits a look. If they win four more in a row, they’ll probably get a bid. I don’t like putting Kentucky in, but their 11 conference wins have to have them in right NOW.
Notable wins: Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi
Notable losses: UNC, Indiana, Gardner-Webb, San Diego, UAB

(20-9, 34, 2-7) WVU does not have one “bad” (read: RPI worse than 100) loss. This is the quinessential case of a team needing its conference tournament as a trampoline for making The Dance.
Notable wins: Marquette, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: Tennessee, Oklahoma, Villanova

(21-8, 35, 0-4) Everyone likes Illinois State’s chances. I don’t, but I’ll entertain the notion and have to put them in right now due to the RPI in relation to everyone else.
Notable wins: Sweeps of Creighton, Southern Illinois
Notable losses: Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Drake twice

(18-10, 56, 3-2) Just barely getting in are the Hawks, who better make the A-10 finals to feel completely comfortable.
Notable wins: Xavier, Villanova, UMass twice
Notable losses: Syracuse, Gonzaga, Holy Cross

——————–SEED 66 LINE———————–

(22-8, 54, 1-1) I wanted to put UAB in, but they don’t have the beef yet.
Notable wins: Kentucky
Notable losses: Wichita State, Rhode Island, South Florida

(18-12, 64, 1-6) The win over Carolina isn’t good enough. An ACC tournament run is mandatory (and probably likely, I can feel it). That loss to Clemson was very damaging.
Notable wins: North Carolina
Notable losses: UCLA, Ohio, American

(21-9, 63, 2-6) Huge game versus Kentucky. Gotta love it.
Notable wins: Kentucky, Vanderbilt
Notable losses: Ohio State, LSU, Florida State

(18-11, 60, 3-5) Wildcats can’t make good of their opportunity-laden schedule.
Notable wins: UConn, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: St. Joe’s, Rutgers, N.C. State

(18-12, 52, 1-7) Getting to 20 wins isn’t a guaranteed trip (remember last year?), but I think if they did I’d really have to consider putting them in. Have to beat Marquette first to even get back into the fold.
Notable wins: Saint Joseph’s, Georgetown
Notable losses: UMass, Rhode Island, Ohio State, South Florida

(18-11, 57, 0-5) No great wins, but they’ve been making a name for themselves again. One loss and they’re done.
Notable wins: Miami (FL), Arkansas, James Madison
Notable losses: Butler, Gonzaga, Old Dominion, Penn State

Friday, March 7th, 2008 @ 12:41 pm Dancing on the Bubble
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