Here we go: There are now 33 locks. (Arkansas, USC, Kent State, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Saint Mary’s and Ole Miss join the rest.) The at-large field after that? We’re currently at 23 teams. VCU was the first team to not follow the chalk in the conference tournaments, so their CAA semifinal loss could hurt them … or kill off someone else’s at-large hopes. Look! It’s already intriguing with six days to go! Plus you had Saint Mary’s losing a game they shouldn’t have lost to San Diego (on San Diego’s home floor) last night, but I still think 25 overall wins with their profile makes them a lock.

Also: I’m assuming Big 6 locks plus Memphis (C-USA), Gonzaga (WCC) and Xavier (A-10) win their conference tournaments.

Having done out my own bracket, there are 16 spots left not occupied by locks, auto bids or one-bid conferences.

If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com. Or you can just post in the comments, which is always encouraged.

Drake is the only team that has essentially given up a bubble spot, so some teams let out a little bit of relief there.

LOCKS:

Note: ALL RECORDS AND RANKINGS ARE AS OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

Here are the 16 (in order) remaining teams that fill up the brackets and the teams that just miss out (for now)…

(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Record vs. RPI Top 50) [Using the ever-reliable kenpom.com]

One win away (5): One more W will mean lock status.

(24-6, 41, 0-3) The rub: One more win an they get the auto bid, so go figure. If they lose that in a close one, I think I’d have to put them in because of a perfect conference record (20-0). Startling: Zero Top 100 wins.
Notable wins: None
Notable losses: UNC, UCLA, Duke

(21-9, 47, 4-6) Stumblin’ to The Tournament’s doorstep, they still only need one Big XII tournament win to solidify themselves. It’s that kind of season for a team with this kind of resume.
Notable wins: Texas, Ohio State
Notable losses: Arizona, Kansas State, Nebraska

(22-7, 29, 1-3) RPI is good, but there’s not a lot of bragging material. Still, it’d be hard to keep them out if they won two in the MWC tournament. Their splits of BYU and New Mexico nullify any notable wins.
Notable wins: None
Notable losses: Louisville, Arizona, Air Force

 

(19-10, 44, 3-5) The Beasley appeal has to factor into the committee’s mindset. How can it not? I still proclaim they’ll need at least one Big XII tourney win, so expect them in the 8/9 game.
Notable wins: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Notable losses: Oregon, Notre Dame, George Mason, Xavier

(21-9, 33, 3-7) Doug Gottlieb has chosen West Virginia as his hateable Big East team this season. Their wins in conference ARE weak, but they do have 11 of them. Just getting a win on Wednesday over Providence is for technicality’s sake.
Notable wins: Marquette, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: Tennessee, Oklahoma, Villanova

Bubbilicious (11): Where the line is blurred.

(17-13, 31, 5-7) A loss on the road to Oregon, yet everyone still picks Arizona to get in because of their wins. Hey, I love a great resume like everyone else, but just because this team has a No. 2-ranked SOS doesn’t mean that we have to take them. If they lose to Stanford in the second round of the Pac-10 tournament (safe to assume they beat Oregon State in round one), then why should they be taken?
Notable wins: Texas A&M, UNLV, Washington State twice
Notable losses: Memphis, Kansas, Arizona State twice, UCLA twice, Stanford twice

(24-7, 52, 0-2) It’s going to be a long week for the Rams, who suffered that bad loss to William & Mary yesterday. The RPI is right in the gray area and they don’t have a lot of good-win ammo. I’ll have them high on the list until other teams start winning in their conference tournaments. Would I put them in over Maryland though? Definitely.
Notable wins: Maryland, Houston
Notable losses: Miami (FL), Arkansas, James Madison

(19-12, 48, 3-9) I can’t put them in the category above because this team has been pretty up-and-down. Do they get the nod right now over Syracuse and Florida (they beat both)? Yes, but it’s the whole body of work, and Ohio State still needs to prove themselves.
Notable wins: Syracuse, Florida, Purdue, Michigan State
Notable losses: Texas A&M, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan

(20-9, 34 3-8) I guess we put them in for now, but another loss could bring up a confusing case.
Notable wins: Notre Dame, Texas A&M
Notable losses: Washington State, Arkansas, Oklahoma twice

(19-11, 34, 5-6) The RPI is flat out brutal. The Oregon loss could come back and haunt them, but how great do those Xavier and Stanford wins look? How can you keep this team out but put Arizona in?
Notable wins: Arizona twice, Xavier, Stanford
Notable losses: Illinois, Nebraska, Wash. State and UCLA twice

(21-9, 40, 2-2) You have to think that UMass will be good, as they are No. 2 in the pecking order, but the profile might not hold up if they can’t get a win the A-10 tournament.
Notable wins: Syracuse, Dayton, Rhode Island twice
Notable losses: Fordham, Northern Iowa, St. Joe’s twice

(24-5, 24, 3-2) They beat Western Kentucky to sweep the season with the Towel Wavers and if they win out, but lose in the Sun Belt final, it could be interesting for South Alabama.
Notable wins: Mississippi State, Western Kentucky twice
Notable losses: Mississippi, Vanderbilt, North Texas

(24-7, 53, 1-4) I had them in on Monday before they beat Vegas, then again on Friday before they beat Colorado State. Just avoid the first round bottom out and the Lobos should be good.
Notable wins: UNLV
Notable losses: BYU twice, Ole Miss, TCU

(18-12, 54, 4-8) If we still have to put Arizona in this thing, then the Ducks, who swept the Wildcats, must to be included as well.
Notable wins: Kansas State, Arizona twice
Notable losses: Washington, Oakland, St. Mary’s

(19-11, 56, 4-6) You know, you find yourself filling out a bracket of 65, and you can’t believe who the final teams getting in are. I compare Villanova’s resume to the teams below, I have to squeeze them in. Though their first round game against Syracuse on Wednesday is an elimination game, so there’s some good juice there.
Notable wins: UConn, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: St. Joe’s, Rutgers, N.C. State

(20-9, 36, 2-3) Yeah … how about this choice out of nowhere? Maryland losing last night has to put someone in the 65 spot, so why not the suddenly-on-the-come Flyers? They beat St. Joe’s over the weekend, so they’re ahead of the Hawks, though their 8-8 A-10 record is a scab. They must get at least one win in the A-10 tournament, no question.
Notable wins: Louisville, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: George Washington, La Salle, George Mason

 

——————–SEED 66 LINE———————–

(23-9, 35, 0-5) After getting their doors blown out against Drake, I CAN’T put them in. Drake won all three meetings and though I think they’ll end up being picked, this team has no signature wins outside of their conference, and even Creighton being their best W is definitely alarming.
Notable wins: Sweeps of Creighton, Southern Illinois
Notable losses: Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Drake twice

(18-13, 69, 1-5) I actually had Maryland in yesterday before their gaffe on the road against Virginia. Too bad. Not really though, because I never liked this team for The Tournament.
Notable wins: North Carolina
Notable losses: UCLA, Ohio, American

(19-12, 45, 2-8) I think Syracuse is among the 34 best non-auto bids, but they’ve had some bad losses, so they still haven’t EARNED it yet. I don’t know what I’d do if they won only one Big East tournament game, but I know I’d have them in with two of ‘em.
Notable wins: Saint Joseph’s, Georgetown
Notable losses: UMass, Rhode Island, Ohio State, South Florida

(18-11, 55, 3-4) The Hawks’ loss to Dayton puts them behind the Flyers and they deserve to be punished. What has happened to the A-10? How crazy and arguable is Joe Lunardi’s alma mater’s schedule? For the sake of this feature, I don’t check his Bracketology, but can someone tell me if he has his school in right now?
Notable wins: Xavier, Villanova, UMass twice
Notable losses: Syracuse, Gonzaga, Holy Cross

(22-9, 50, 1-2) Getting housed by Memphis (like everyone else) means they’ll need to make the C-USA final and be competitive there to get an at-large. Even then it could be a pipe dream.
Notable wins: Kentucky
Notable losses: Wichita State, Rhode Island, South Florida

(21-10, 65, 2-8) The Kentucky loss yesterday almost cripples them, but an SEC tournament final appearance would get them in if other teams bow out early in their conference tournaments.
Notable wins: Kentucky, Vanderbilt
Notable losses: Ohio State, LSU, Florida State

(18-12, 57, 0-6) Va. Tech lost a heart breaker to Clemson yesterday, so without any terrific wins, how can they be considered? Just because conference tournament season can be crazy, I’ll let them hang in the back of the room.
Notable wins: Miami (FL), Arkansas, James Madison
Notable losses: Butler, Gonzaga, Old Dominion, Penn State

Monday, March 10th, 2008 @ 9:04 am Dancing on the Bubble
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