All of these teams lost yesterday: Oregon, Florida, Ole Miss, Maryland, Dayton, Arizona State, Baylor, Villanova and UAB. Tag on Syracuse from Wednesday, and maybe the picture is clearer than you think. Why? Well, if so many teams lost, why should the bubble change all THAT much? For all of the talk that there is over “nobody wants to make this thing! No one’s winning!” maybe not all that much has shifted. If all of the questionable teams lost, shouldn’t they still be in the same position as before those losses took place?

However, I do have to put one team into the fold that I haven’t had since the first installment back in early January. (I’m not saying who it is here.)

The arithmetic:
—12 automatic bids have been handed out
—There are 36 locks, not counting auto-bids Drake and Butler. (Texas A&M, West. Va join up.)
—There are nine one-bid leagues left.
—Having done out my own bracket, there are NINE spots left not occupied by locks, auto bids or one-bid conferences.

If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com. Or you can just post in the comments, which is always encouraged.

LOCKS:

Note: ALL RECORDS AND RANKINGS ARE AS OF FRIDAY MORNING.

Here are the nine (in order) remaining teams that fill up the brackets, followed by the teams that just miss out.

(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Record vs. RPI Top 50) [Using the ever-reliable kenpom.com]

One win away (3): One more W will mean lock status.

(19-10, 45, 3-5) The Beasley appeal has to factor into the committee’s mindset. How can it not? I still proclaim they’ll need at least one Big XII tourney win, so let’s wait for that today when they play A&M.
Notable wins: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Notable losses: Oregon, Notre Dame, George Mason, Xavier

(19-12, 46, 2-9) Wouldn’t you love to be a Buckeye right now? It wasn’t good enough to defeat Michigan State and Purdue in your past two games, you’re going to have to defeat Michigan State again in order to lock up a spot.
Notable wins: Syracuse, Florida, Purdue, Michigan State
Notable losses: Texas A&M, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan

(23-7, 29, 1-3) It feels weird making UNLV a lock right now, but they took care of business last night against TCU (but only won by one), so beating Utah tonight would absolutely do it.
Notable wins: None
Notable losses: Louisville, Arizona, Air Force

Bubblicious (6): Where the line is blurred.

(20-10, 42, 3-8) This is why we don’t presume things ahead of time.
Notable wins: Notre Dame, Texas A&M
Notable losses: Washington State, Arkansas, Oklahoma twice

(19-12, 81, 5-7) Tough loss to Southern Cal yesterday puts their RPI at a B-R-U-T-A-L ranking of 81. I’M putting them almost definitely, but I don’t know if the commitee will. No team has ever gotten an at-large bid with an 80-or-worse RPI, right? Notable wins: Arizona twice, Xavier, Stanford
Notable losses: Illinois, Nebraska, Wash. State and UCLA twice

(18-13, 56, 4-9) What to do here … I think you have to put Oregon in. I think their K-State win continues to help whether or not the Wildcats win or lose today, and they swept Arizona. I understand that you could make an argument to keep ‘Zona in if you take Oregon…
Notable wins: Kansas State, Arizona twice
Notable losses: Washington, Oakland, St. Mary’s

(20-12, 51, 3-7) Eyeball test tells me yes. A loss to Georgetown in the Big East quarters isn’t the worst thing in the world.
Notable wins: UConn, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: St. Joe’s, Rutgers, N.C. State

(21-10, 43, 1-4) Losing to Charlotte invited more trouble than the Minutemen needed. They need to hope more bubble teams lose today.
Notable wins: Syracuse, Dayton, Rhode Island twice
Notable losses: Fordham, Northern Iowa, St. Joe’s twice

(20-11, 50, 3-4) A win today over Xavier will absolutely do it.
Notable wins: Xavier, Villanova, UMass twice
Notable losses: Syracuse, Gonzaga, Holy Cross

——————–SEED 66 LINE———————–

(18-14, 39, 5-8) No. I refuse to put Arizona in and I’ll have a post up on it in a little while.
Notable wins: Texas A&M, UNLV, Washington State twice
Notable losses: Memphis, Kansas, Arizona State twice, UCLA twice, Stanford twice

(24-8, 58, 1-4) They needed that OT win over Utah last night.
Notable wins: UNLV
Notable losses: BYU twice, Ole Miss, TCU

(24-6, 34, 3-2) I still have to put South Alabama on the outside right now. Everyone suddenly seems to be an expert on this team, but I’m still trying to decide if they belong. I reserve the right to change my mind here.
Notable wins: Mississippi State, Western Kentucky twice
Notable losses: Mississippi, Vanderbilt, North Texas

(24-7, 55, 0-2) It’s going to be a long week for the Rams, who suffered that bad loss to William & Mary in the CAA semis. The RPI is right in the gray area and they don’t have a lot of good-win ammo. This is an ultimate bubble team, and I think you have to give them the nod over South Alabama, barely.
Notable wins: Maryland, Houston
Notable losses: Miami (FL), Arkansas, James Madison

(21-10, 32, 3-4) Granted, it was Xavier, but they probably needed that win to get them in.
Notable wins: Louisville, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: George Washington, La Salle, George Mason

(19-13, 52, 3-8) Funny … yesterday I thought they had no shot, but if Va. Tech, UNLV and St. Joe’s lose today, they could sneak in through the back door. I know it sounds crazy, but this could be the wackiest Selection Sunday yet.
Notable wins: Saint Joseph’s, Georgetown
Notable losses: UMass, Rhode Island, Ohio State, South Florida

(19-12, 60, 3-4) Welcome back Temple! Hey, the Owls finished second in the A-10, they’re playing as well as anyone (Xavier aside), so they have to be mentioned now. If all of these other teams are bowing out early, and they can reach the A-10 title game, why shouldn’t they be in?
Notable wins: Xavier, UMass
Notable losses: Florida, Duke, Villanova, Fordham

(23-9, 33, 2-5) After getting their doors blown out against Drake, I won’t put them in. Drake won all three meetings, this team has no signature wins outside of their conference and even Creighton being their best W is definitely alarming. Still, with everyone losing, does Illinois State start to look better?
Notable wins: Sweeps of Creighton, Southern Illinois
Notable losses: Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Drake twice

(18-14, 82, 1-5) Thank you, Terps, for proving me right.
Notable wins: North Carolina
Notable losses: UCLA, Ohio, American

(22-10, 54, 1-2) Their loss to Tulsa yesterday put the dragons to bed.
Notable wins: Kentucky
Notable losses: Wichita State, Rhode Island, South Florida

(21-11, 72, 2-8) Just letting you know that they have no shot.
Notable wins: Kentucky, Vanderbilt
Notable losses: Ohio State, LSU, Florida State

(18-12, 59, 0-6) Seth Greenberg (in case you missed it) doesn’t want to hear about anyone dismissing this team’s bubble chances. They have such a great chance to play their way in. It starts today, when the MUST MUST MUST beat Miami.
Notable wins: Miami (FL), Arkansas
Notable losses: Butler, Gonzaga, Old Dominion, Penn State

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