Last regional breakdown of The Tournament. (You can find the other three sorted below this post.) It’s the region that Billy Packer and Jim Nantz are going to be all over. It features a few possible Cinderella stories. The East seems to be the chalkiest first-round scenario to me. After that? It could get interesting with an Indiana team that very well is a 4 seed in disguise. (Remember IU over Duke in the regional semis five years ago?)
(32-2) Record against the field: 9-1. It should speak volumes about how down the ACC is this year when a top-ranked Carolina team has only played against 10 Tournament teams. Is Hansbrough destined to win a title and be UNC’s Laettner? I can see it. There’s nothing too new to unwrap with the Heels. They’ve got the athletes, they’ve got the Tournament-proven coach, they have a deep bench. Really, they deserve to be the No. 1 overall. Even Roy Williams is admitting that Ty Lawson’s ankle hasn’t been the same, so if you’re looking for a reason to not pick the Baby Blue, perhaps that’s your out.
(29-4) Record against the field: 12-4. The committee says they rewarded Tennesse by placing them in Charlotte, the closest geographical region to Knoxville. (It’s about four hours.) If you’re searching for reasons to take Tennessee to be outed by Butler or South Alabama (like I am) you can look to their lack of consistent defense, their ability to rebound (which leaves a lot to be desired) and their free throw shooting. Can Tennessee run their way through The Tournament? It’s hard to imagine that this team can adapt to a half-court style when they’re forced to.
(24-8) Record against the field: 9-5. If you took them to win the national title I wouldn’t consider it a sleeper pick, but it’d be close. From a physical standpoint, David Padgett appears to be a cyborg. The guy is so strong despite breaking his knee cap four months ago that it makes you appreciate how tough he plays. Juan Palacios looks smooth wearing those slim goggles, but his game doesn’t impress me all that much. Here’s where you can find a good reason why Louisville could make a run: They play just as ferociously on defense as Tennessee; L’ville has had plenty of time to rest after playing just one game in the Big East tournament; the Cardinals have bigger guys to beat Tennessee down low.
(24-8) Record against the field: 9-7. I like Wazzu as a 4 … I just didn’t think they’d be rewarded with that seed. Is this team ready to take another step after losing to sixth-seeded Vanderbilt last year? I don’t know. I do know that Derrick Low has a nose for the ball, Kyle Weaver plays a much bigger game than his body allows for and Robbie Cowgill has a great name, but he’s not much of a factor. The Cougs get a Winthrop team that isn’t as good as last year’s club that expectedly took out … Notre Dame, who sits right above the Wazzu/Winthrop game in this bracket. Long term chances for Washington State? I’d be shocked if they made the Elite 8, but they do have the ability to get there.
(24-7) Record against the field: 6-6. Weird. I would’ve thought Dame definitely had an above .500 record against Tourney teams. I’m rooting for George Mason to pull the upset against Notre Dame, but it’s probably not going to happen. If you’re looking for the next Gerry McNamara, Kyle McAlarney could be it. K-Mac (anyone coined that yet?) went off against G-Mac’s former team, sinking 9 3-pointers in a game in February. Harangody is the Player of the Year in the Big East and he definitely deserves it. Still, I think the battle between ‘Gody and Mason’s Will Thomas is going to be pretty fun to watch. Also, if there’s one in the upper half of this region that could match UNC shot-for-shot, it’s the Domers.
(22-11) Record against the field: 7-8. Oklahoma’s kind of just … there. Blake Griffin is the stud, though. He’s another freshman that you may not know a ton about, but he commands your attention on the block. The Sooners play St. Joe’s and that’s not a lot of sex appeal, but the game does have some contrasting styles, so I’ll be interested to see who gains the advantage. All told, Oklahoma is more of a 7-seed to me, but who’s bitching? The best news about Oklahoma’s arrival is the fact that we have another repetitive name in The Dance. After the days of Duany Duany past us, we now get Longar Longar … who plays very long(ar). (Sorry.)
(29-3) Record against the field: 0-1. You want to know why a team with an RPI of 17 gets rewarded with a 7-seed? Look at the opening stat. I still don’t agree with the decision, but I understand it. Throw in some history … a few years back Gonzaga was given a 6-seed and a lot of people complained over it. The Zags were, I think, 7th in the polls at the time, so it seemed like the committee really goofed on the placement. Gonzaga went on to lose against No. 11 Wyoming and proved the committee right. That was the one season that Gonzaga scheduled weakly, so perhaps you can use that as a guide when mulling over Butler’s case. The South Alabama game doesn’t seem fair because it’s being played in Birmingham, but a few people are claiming that South Alabama has miserable draws for home games, so who knows. I want to take Butler to beat Tennessee, but I see the Vols pulling out a terrific close one. (Raftery would be on that call, by the way.)
(25-7) Record against the field: 4-5. Are they doomed to end this snake-bitten season after one more game? Is this a giant killer in disguise? Indiana’s mighty trick now without Kelvin Sampson as coach and a lack of focus on the floor. But you look at their opponent and it’s hard to figure them losing the first game. The Eric Gordon Factor could be neutralized against the Heels, sure, but not against Arkansas. This seems like the biggest lock for an 8/9 since that talented Arizona team was matched up against Seton Hall a half-decade ago. (Oh yeah … Hall won that.)
(22-11) Record against the field: 7-6. They earned their 9-seed. They earned it. I know this is simplifying it, but it took Steven Hill making a shot and Chris Lofton missing one in order to get them into the SEC title game.
(26-6) Record against the field: 4-1. Two of their good wins are against Western Kentucky, who needed to win the Sun Belt in order to get here. I’ve not seen South Alabama play once this year. Team USA could be a great story, but they are small. Plus, Butler’s got the experience.
(21-12) Record against the field: 5-4. Two defeats of Xavier launched them to an 11-seed and now they have Oklahoma to deal with. Two teams with maroon-like uniforms never really gets anyone excited. You’ll hear about Pat Calathes, you may have heard about Ahmad Nivins. That’s fine, they’re nice players. I don’t know if St. Joe’s has so much going for them when they play in Philly, I just wonder how they’re going to do down in ‘Bama. They don’t play a lot of guys (I do hold bench depth in higher regard than most), so Oklahoma’s bangers could push them out of the way.
(23-10) Record against the field: 1-2. Yeah, Mason gets a 12 seed? Weird, right? Oh wait … Tournament committee chair Tom O’Connor just happens to be the AD at the school! Ha! Wouldn’t you know. What a fraudulent seeding this is. It’s perfectly acceptable to root for Mason again, but this mis-seeding was swept under the rug by the media as well. I want to be proven wrong. I want Mason to get the upset and prove the committee right. Say what you want about Baylor or Drake, but if this team made the Sweet 16 again, there’d be no better story.
(22-11) Record against the field: 1-4. Anyone who’s taking Winthrop is betting on a pipe dream. This team isn’t as good as it was last year and has a brand new coach. Only two players consistently score in double digits. If Winthrop wants to steal another one, they’ll have to bank on a bad shooting day from Washington State, who tends to keep it close anyway.
(25-8) Record against the field: 2-2. Upset special against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl last year, the Broncos would face the Sooners if both teams won their first game. It took 3 overtimes to get the shiny blue and orange squad to beat New Mexico State and earn a date with Louisville. Pitino patrols the opposing sideline. It doesn’t look good for these guys.
(21-11) Record against the field: 1-2. American Eagles. (Make your preppy jokes now.) We haven’t had a 15 over a 2 since ‘01. History tells us we’re due. You had Richmond over Syracuse in ‘90 … Santa Clara over ‘Zona in ‘93 … Coppin State over South Carolina in ‘97 … Hampton over Iowa State in ‘01. It’s now 2008, so wouldn’t you say we’re due? And people want to talk about how even the college basketball playing field is. I don’t think it’s THAT even.
(19-14) Record against the field: 1-3. No, I’m not counting their win against Coppin State. That was technically a Tournament game, so we should assess them in the same manner as the other 63 schools. They do have one thing going for them—confidence. However, if you caught that play-in game, you know they’ve got no shot.
