While UConn is on the verge of lock status, it has pushed schools like Notre Dame to the outside.
This feature will not be about projecting the field or anticipating what might happen. No, this is how I see the field of 65 and who I think should be in; all of this is according to my eyes and my judgment. And no, I do not read any Bracketology. As I’ve stated before, Lunardi is just too good at what he does that he takes the fun out of it for me.
Locks? There are none — yet. What defines a “lock” to me? Simple: If you can afford to lose every single game for the remainder of the season and still be granted an at-large berth despite that, you’re a lock. It’s safe to say that no one is safe from that yet. Of course a team like UNC isn’t going to lose all its games, but then what fun would this be?
I’m litigious with this, I know, but I do it purposefully in order to really be able to get a full scope of the at-large field. How many at-large candidates are there? Unfortunately, I’ve done hours of research, and whittled the field down to 57 teams with legitimate shots right now. Others could eventually fight their way into the at-large picture. If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com.
Understand that there are only 34 at-large berths handed out each year, and the ratio of locks/bubblers will certainly become a lot tighter once February hits.
Here’s the first group. The we-can’t-possibly-screw-this-up-right? group
Then, the separation, where there are currently 59 at-large candidates, is where it gets fun. There are only 34 available spots, and since four major conferences are represented above, we’ll eliminate the 34 at large bids down to 30 (since eight teams are indicated), but two of the at-large spots would presumably be taken as automatics by a Pac-10 and Big East school, bringing the number to 32 … for now.
Note: ALL RECORDS AND RANKINGS ARE AS OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Pomeroy ranking)
Here’s the first group of teams. They are all ranked 25th or better in the RPI, and while the RPI is not a perfect system, I do always have one rule: If you’re in the top 25 teams in the RPI, you deserve to get into The Tournament. The system is built too well to deny anyone that can crack this group.
(18-2, 5, 12) The Musketeers, once again, find themselves in this position: The class of the A10. Just need to get to like a 21-3, 22-4 mark to assure themselves in the group above.
(17-1, 7, 24) The wins keep coming. This time next week, I expect the Bulldogs to be approaching near-lock status. It’s time to start believing this is, at worst, a six-seed team.
(16-3, 9, 6) The Cardinals have one of the best starting fives in the country. It’s a wonder how often they forget this. Still undefeated in Big East play so far, which is kind of incredible. They’re 7-0; can they get to 10 games? Their placement here is a mere formality. One win shy.
(17-3, 12, 8 ) Everyone knows the Tigers aren’t the same as last year, but this team can still make the Final Four. Believe it. Losses to three legit teams — Syracuse, Xavier and Georgetown — and its best win came against Tulsa. Have done nothing but win since the last edition of DotB.
(16-4, 13, 20) And on the heels of an upset over Pittsburgh, Villanova launches into the RPI’s top 25. Pittsburgh is the only win it can hang its cap on right now. It needs at least two wins from this group coming up: Syracuse twice, Notre Dame, Marquette, West Virginia, Georgetown. I’ll keep monitoring …
(15-4, 14, 26) No shock here. UCLA, Villanova and Wisconsin all lay in Texas’ wake. The Baylor win Tuesday was also a nice cushion. Probably sauntering its way to a three-seed.
(13-6, 15, 29) Wins over Ole Miss, BYU and Gonzaga help the cause. Already has two losses in conference and probably cannot afford to reach as many as five. Beating New Mexico Saturday would be nice.
(17-3, 17, 17) Sweet 17’s for the Illini. Good, good wins over fellow bubblers Vanderbilt, Tulsa, Missouri, Purdue, Michigan, Ohio State AND Wisconsin. Would be catastrophic if it fell short of The Tournament at this point.
(16-5, 18, 72) Uh … wow. And here’s your anti-RPI argument right here. Should be noted: The Saints are 10-0 in conference play. One loss will boot ‘em.
(15-5, 19, 9) So how has WVU faired in Big East played so far … 4-3, with its only nice win against suddenly-tumbling Georgetown. Now comes the fury of punches: Louisville, Syracuse, Providence, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Notre Dame. Escape that with a 3-3 record and WVU should get in to The Tournament on man points alone.
(16-3, 20, 7) All the Pac-10 teams are getting ready to play a couple hours, so there could be some shifting. That said, Arizona State looks to be in the best shape of any from that conference. Baylor, Cal and USC are the losses; San Diego State, BYU and UCLA are the wins.
(12-7, 21, 18) One person did e-mail me after the last edition of DotB and basically reprimanded me for not putting G’town in the near-lock category … and now it’s lost four straight. And is only in this group because of my RPI rule. Suddenly, the Hoyas can’t get their hands from around their necks.
(14-5, 22, 46) The Ohio State Buckeyes. You know, there is some crazy talk that the Big Ten can send seven teams dancing this year. The Buckeyes are still pointing at giving Butler its only loss, and now has a sweep of Michigan to its name, which might be a trump card later on.
(15-4, 24, 27) To me, this is the biggest surprise of the college basketball season. I know they’ve got Brockman, but who really thought Washington would bounce back this season to contend — for a Pac-10 title! U-Dub is 6-1 in the Pac-10. The Arizona schools are forthcoming.
(16-5, 23, 37) “The Orange are well on their way to not leaving anything to chance.” –Me, Jan. 16. Ouch. From 15-2 to 16-5, and four losses in its last five games. Rutgers and St. John’s are the only two “easy” games left on the schedule. If this team isn’t at 21 wins by the Big East tournament, nothing is given. After last year, Syracuse fans may believe the team is in when Greg Gumbel utters its name around 6:15 ET on Selection Sunday.
(16-4, 25, 16) The UMass loss should cost the Jayhawks a seed line. Aldrich is a game-changer, for sure. And Sherron Collins seems like he has a clutch moment or two in him. The Tennessee win has all but deflated, and Kansas probably should get to 23 wins before the Big XII tournament begins.
A LEVEL BELOW:
(13-4, 55, 4) Gonzaga will probably need to win all but maybe two games in the WCC regular season to punch a ticket. Wins against Okie State, Maryland, Tennessee (twice!). Losses to UConn, Arizona, Portland State and Utah. And look at that disparity between the RPI and Pomeroy’s number. Norlander’s number puts them about 29th.
(15-4, 40, 14) Still fine. All “good” losses.
(16-4, 33, 15) The Boilers’ best out-of-conference win is wishy-washy Boston College. SOS has been bumped up to 46th best. Winners of five straight. These guys certainly pass the eye test, that’s for sure.
(18-3, 26, 28) This team has plenty of skeptics, and that’s fine. It appears Nick Calathes is somewhat non-human. To watch this kid do as much as he does to keep the Gators in games, it may be the toughest job any player has on any team in the country.
(16-5, 56, 23) An unusual year for Kentucky in this respect: its SOS is 99th. Normally, the Wildcats are top 10 in strength of schedge. The SEC appears to be theirs to take. Could have a spot locked up by Valentine’s Day.
(16-3, 32, 51) Would this be happening if Tubby Smith wernen’t the coach? No. A soft schedule, but one loss is one loss. That Louisville win will continue to ring loudly. Golden Gophs have dropped 20 RPI points pretty quickly with two losses. Illinois, Michigan State and Ohio State are the next three. Win two, and UM will be in great position.
(16-4, 38, 14) The team I have adopted. Wins over Fairfield, Chattanooga and Arkansas-Pine Bluff do anything for ya? How about Centenary, Prarie View A&M and Copping State? Seriously, Oklahoma State is the best win. But I have the faith!
(16-5, 27, 57) The Seminoles looked pretty bad in its two games against top-five teams: Duke and Pitt. Hard to figure they can get above .500 in the ACC, meaning they would be left out.
(14-5, 31, 30) I was kind of shocked I didn’t have the Bears on my list last time. That was an oversight. Baylor has wins over Arizona State and Oklahoma State, with losses against Wake, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M and South Carolina. It’s trepadacious right now.
(16-4, 35, 33) It gets tough here for Cal, as it plays on the road at UCLA and USC. Holding back judgement until next week.
(16-1, 49, 34) A better-than-you-think UTEP team is the only one to fell the Gaels. The SOS is at 241 and could plummet further with conference play. Hate to say it, but it’s probably going to take a 25-win season for the Gaels to feel good about a berth. They will forever be on the bubble.
(18-1, 41, 47) Utah State absolutely must be on the better side of the bubble right now. It’s only loss is to BYU; has a win over Utah. The SOS is going to be like lead on this team’s feet; it’s at 259 right now. I will fully support a three-loss-or-better Utah State team making The Tournament.
(16-4, 43, 53). Louisville, BYU, New Mexico and Utah lie in its wake. Welcome to the good side.
(18-2, 39, 81) How is a team that is 18-2 ranked 81st overall by Ken Pomeroy? No fear, Flyers, you’re on my good side.
(14-5, 36, 61) Romped by Duke at the beginning of this year, but Seth Greenberg will fillabuster you until next week about how his team almost wins games. Almost doesn’t count, as the Hokies found out last year. Its last three wins are Boston College, Wake Forest and Miami. That’ll do it.
———–SEED 66 LINE————–
NOTE: Consider the fact that there will be more one-bid leagues that come into play in the upcoming weeks, so at least four or five of these at-large candidates could spring above the 66 line very soon.
(13-6, 28, 36) Playing itself out, and fast.
(14-5, 37, 27) Plummeting. The Cougs have lost three of four and need to take advantages of the cupcakes coming up. If it wasn’t for last Saturday’s win over San Diego State, this team would really be in the red.
(16-3, 34, 32) Everyone wants to put Davidson in The Tournament. Everyone wants to see Davidson in The Tournament. Should Davidson be above Illinois State right now? Probably. But the West Virginia win is the only redeeming win on its schedule. On the same note, this team did lose to every tough opponent it faced last year, and look how far it went. Want to see it end the season with no more than four wins for an at-large.
(13-6, 44, 28) Losers of three of four. Sliding down the wall.
(12-7, 30, 41) The bottom is falling out. Is Bruce Pearl’s act growing tiresome? Dropped its last two, and the Florida game Saturday is rather huge.
(13-7, 50, 76) Taking out Duke and UCLA early will serve as quite the big safety net. I thought they’d get to 20 wins by season’s end. That’s looking more and more unlikely.
(11-8, 29, 40) The toughest schedule in the land gets Wisconsin this high, but you’ve gotta win some games. Best win: at Michigan. Lost five straight. Yikes.
(11-7, 78, 48) I don’t want to hear it. A wretched RPI and the team has looked awful. Must fight its way back into the picture.
(13-4, 70, 49) Teetering after losing to Oregon State. That sounds crazy for a four-loss major conference team at this point in the season, but Stanford has some proving to do.
(15-9, 36, 31) Can’t quite figure this team out. I want to put them ahead of Stanford, but there’s no way I can when it has five losses more.
(15-5, 42, 82) A Big 12 schedule has jumped the Aggies’ SOS from 144 to 61. Still, If it can’t win on the road in the next two months, we could be looking at an NIT situation.
(15-8, 54, 58) Wins over Florida, Ole Miss and Baylor get you in the discussion.
(16-4, 62, 43) Most of its wins have come against teams with an RPI of 200 or worse. The Ole Miss win isn’t that great, and it seems everyone’s beating Tennesse. Maybe I’m just a hater.
(12-5, 51, 35) The Wyoming loss is ugly. It’ll take a top 40 RPI to get an at-large berth. For now, chillin’ outside da club.
(12-7, 84, 39) Its seven losses have come in two spurts of three- and four-game losses, respectively. Only the best of the best can get away with that kind of pattern. Gets on the board with its win over Missouri this week.
(17-4, 63, 80) Grasping at straws. One more loss and its banished from this year’s bubble.
