Maryland has been consistently on the bubble or out of the postseason picture since 2003.
Here’s a chart Andy Katz provided recently.
Putting teams with sub-.500 conference records in the NCAA tournament is hardly new. Just look at how many teams made the field with such a résumés in the past 25 years or so:
Sub.-500 records in conference since ’83 that received at-large bids.
| Year | Team | Record | Conference | Conf. Record | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Arizona | 19-14 | Pac-10 | 8-10 | 7th |
| 2007 | Arkansas | 21-13 | SEC | 7-9 | T-3rd |
| 2005 | Iowa | 21-11 | Big Ten | 7-9 | 7th |
| 2005 | NC State | 19-13 | ACC | 7-9 | T-6th |
| 2003 | Alabama | 17-11 | SEC | 7-9 | T-4th |
| 2001 | Penn State | 19-11 | Big Ten | 7-9 | T-6th |
| 1999 | Purdue | 19-12 | Big Ten | 7-9 | 7th |
| 1998 | Clemson | 18-13 | ACC | 7-9 | T-4th |
| 1998 | Florida State | 17-13 | ACC | 6-10 | T-6th |
| 1997 | Virginia | 18-12 | ACC | 7-9 | 6th |
| 1996 | Clemson | 18-10 | ACC | 7-9 | 6th |
| 1995 | Iowa State | 22-10 | Big Ten | 6-8 | 5th |
| 1994 | Seton Hall | 17-12 | Big East | 8-10 | 7th |
| 1994 | Wisconsin | 17-10 | Big Ten | 8-10 | 7th |
| 1992 | Iowa State | 20-12 | Big Eight | 5-9 | T-6th |
| 1992 | Wake Forest | 17-11 | ACC | 7-9 | 5th |
| 1991 | Georgia Tech | 16-12 | ACC | 6-8 | T-5th |
| 1991 | Villanova | 16-14 | Big East | 7-9 | T-7th |
| 1991 | Virginia | 21-11 | ACC | 6-8 | T-5th |
| 1990 | Indiana | 18-10 | Big Ten | 8-10 | 7th |
| 1990 | Virginia | 19-11 | ACC | 6-8 | T-5th |
| 1989 | Providence | 18-10 | Big East | 7-9 | T-5th |
| 1988 | Iowa State | 20-11 | Big Eight | 6-8 | 5th |
| 1988 | Maryland | 17-12 | ACC | 6-8 | 5th |
| 1987 | LSU | 21-14 | SEC | 8-10 | T-6th |
| 1986 | Maryland | 18-13 | ACC | 6-8 | 6th |
| 1985 | Boston College | 18-10 | Big East | 7-9 | 6th |
| 1984 | Virginia | 17-11 | ACC | 6-8 | T-5th |
| 1983 | Alabama | 20-11 | SEC | 8-10 | T-8th |
Never a Big 12 team, as you can see. Who, in your memory, would say was the worst team to ever make it? 2005 Iowa sticks out to me. So. Who is it going to be this year? Here are the candidates. (Georgetown does not qualify.)Focus on the wins that aren’t there. And since it’s pretty much a freaking guarantee two teams under .500 won’t get a bid, I’ll lean one way or the other in each conference. For conferences with one team, I’ll rank them according to the top dogs in other conferences.
ACC:
Maryland (17-9, 6-6). Aside from the UNC win at home, Maryland has its wins over Georgia Tech (twice), Virginia, Virginia Tech and Miami.
Virginia Tech (16-10, 6-6). Va. Tech has proved it cannot win close games. Wins over Virginia, Boston College, Wake Forest, Miami, N.C. State and Georgia Tech.
Maryland trumps Va. Tech right now. Teams can only meet again if the fates pit them against each other in the ACC tournament.
BIG EAST:
Cincinnati (17-10, 7-7). What to do with the Bearcats? No one really knows a lot about them. Their wins over Rutgers, DePaul, St. John’s (twice), Georgetown (twice) and Notre Dame remind of a the normal Florida State type of year. Does Cincinnati really scare anyone?
Notre Dame (15-11, 6-8). That Texas win has lost some value since November. Has taken down DePaul, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Louisville, South Florida, Providence.
Cinci has the head-to-head win. Like Maryland-Va. Tech, these teams are not scheduled to meet again. If both teams end up with the same BE record, Cinci better get the bid.
BIG XII:
Oklahoma State (17-9, 6-6). A&M, Nebraska, Texas Tech (twice), Iowa State, Baylor.
Texas A&M (20-8, 6-7). Baylor, Texas Tech (twice), Oklahoma State, Texas, Nebraska.
A nice, tangled-up scenario here. The teams split the season series, share wins over Nebraska, a Tech sweep and Baylor. You have to lean A&M because Texas trumps Iowa state. Plus: the better overall record.
BIG TEN:
Michigan (17-11, 7-8). Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern (twice), Penn State, Minnesota is the list. And it’s the Big Ten. A legit argumente that Michigan has one win over a conference foe with a definite Dance ticket. It gets a little intriguing: beat UCLA, Duke; lost to Maryland, who plays Duke tonight. If Maryland wins, consider Michigan at the bottom of this list.
PAC-10:
Southern California (16-10, 7-7). I think USC has played like a Tournament-worthy team this year. In fact, I’d give them a higher chance to go further in The Tournament than any other team listed. Oregon, Arizona State, Arizona, Washington State (twice), Stanford, Cal. The AZ wins are good, but it split with both. Has a chance to sweep the Bay Area schools this weekend, vaulting them out of this conversation.
SEC: Nobody qualifies.
So, in order, as of Wednesday at 3 p.m., I’d go:
1) USC
2) Texas A&M
3) Maryland
4) Cincinnati
5) Virginia Tech
6) Oklahoma State
7) Notre Dame
8 ) Michigan
