Sit down, Wildcats. You're not in yet.
It’s getting to crunch time. Joe Lunardi won’t get off your television screen; I hate that. I avoid that man and his toupee at all costs. After all, let’s get real: predicting the actual group of 65 isn’t that hard. Thirty-one bids are spoken for, and another 30 are pretty much cake to predict. It’s that final two or three that’s tough — and even then, who’s going to give you grief? The real challenge is seeing how many teams you can accurately predict in regard to their seeding. Getting more than 40 then: that’s impressive.
Anyway, here’s the latest crop of Tournament locks:
I am the stingiest lock-giver-outer in all the land, and I have awarded 18 teams with that title. Everyone else below cannot afford to lose every single game for the rest of the season and not feel the heat.
In the sake of being gracious, let’s assume that all the locks above win the auto bid. The leaves 10 spots eaten up by the leftover group above. Bringing the total number of at-larges to select from below from 34 to 24. Below are the 36 teams fighting for those 24 spots. And this does not account for a team off the bubble stealing a bid by winning a conference tournament.
Digging deeper into the resumes of each team, I will provide the amount of quality road wins. (Read: beating a team with an RPI better than 75 in a neutral-site or road scenario.)
Note: ALL RECORDS AND RANKINGS ARE AS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Pomeroy ranking, quality road/neutral wins)
RPI Top 25: While the RPI is not a perfect system, I do always have one rule: If you’re in the top 25 teams in the RPI, you deserve to get into The Tournament. The system is built too “well” to deny anyone that can crack this group.
(20-7, 9, 26, 0) There’s a hideous 80-79 loss to D-II Southwest Baptist. Wins over Vegas, BYU and Gonzaga help the cause, and the New Mexico W was also significant. But the Utes are riding on an eight-game winning streak, that’s why they’re here. Has a game against BYU and New Mexico coming up. Split those and don’t lose the MWC opener and Utah will be dancing.
(19-9, 15, 6, 2) The Mountaineers put themselves into an interesting position by losing at Cincinnati last night; that was a win that would’ve vaulted WVU. Ohio State is the best non-con win. Seems like a Tournament team; doesn’t mean it is one.
(21-7, 19, 48, 3) Team can’t put together a decent winning streak. Gets the unenviable task of finishing its season with Clemson, Duke and Va. Tech. One win in that group should do it.
(23-4, 20, 37, 2) Only if Butler loses its final two games to end the season and falls in the opening round of the Horizon will it be in jeopardy.
(20-8, 22, 25, 3) Beat Cinci and Rutgers and all this squirming ends.
(21-6, 23, 13, 3) Has a very nice win over Utah State out of conference, but man oh man, does that Utah game tomorrow mean so much. MWC should be sending four teams this year. Period.
(20-6, 24, 62, 0)I don’t know how Siena keeps coming back and haunting mean. Would a 25-6 record and a loss in the MAAC final be good enough? I don’t think so. Best win: at St. Joe’s.
A LEVEL BELOW:
(21-7, 32, 30, 4) Sneaky, sneaky team. Curious if they’ll get a four-seed, which would shock many. Has some very nice wins with at least two more chances for more.
(18-8, 41, 41, 3) That Michigan sweep helped its stock after the Wolverines got a must-win last night against Purdue. Avoid stumbling against Northwestern and Iowa to end the regular season.
(17-10, 26, 45, 3) Loved Tennessee last year; hate them this one. Sweeping South Carolina next Thursday is the trump card.
(19-8, 38, 29, 3) Will be getting in, but just shy of a lock.
(18-5, 39, 11, 6) Six quality non-home wins? Yeah, that’ll be more than enough. Wins against Okie State, Maryland, Tennessee (twice!). Losses to UConn, Arizona, Portland State and Utah. The Saint Mary’s sweep is fairly significant.
(21-7, 35, 9, 3) Losing steam by the day, it seems. Dropped three of its last five. I know you want to put them as a lock, but if it lost to both Oregon schools, you couldn’t say it was one.
(21-7, 25, 16, 4) Just needed to take care of business in Ann Arbor …
(20-6, 42, 49, 2) Realllly close, but the SEC is down and only has two quality road wins.
(18-8, 51, 59, 3) B.C. gets a ridiculous eight days off before it plays N.C. State next Wednesday. Losses to Harvard and St. John’s cancel out Carolina and Duke wins.Has a trumping win over Maryland.
(20-8, 36, 47, 2) Has been a miserable road team this season. Wouldn’t trust them come the first round, but prepare to see the Gophers in the bracket. (And what if Kentucky wasn’t … )
(21-7, 43, 42, 1) Only good out of conference win is over Washington. But nine-loss-or-better Florida team will make it, I still maintain that.
(20-8, 49 , 51, 2). Still par for the course after beating BYU and losing to Utah. Must win its final two against Air Force and San Diego State. Something tells me SDSU might throw another wrench into this whole thing, though.
(17-10, 46, 28, 2) Probably in better shape than you think. Miami can claim wins over Wake, Kentucky and a sweep of Boston College.
(23-5, 33, 82, 2) 1-2 since we last met. That Rhode Island loss hurts, but the one to Saint Louis before that is an even deeper wound. How does the Committee view the A10 this season? I think it’s a two-bid league.
(18-10, 56, 63, 2) Cincinnati is a meteor in the at-large picture at the moment. Winning two of its final three would get the team to 10 Big East wins. It’s not getting left out if that happens.
(19-9, 63, 33, 3) Rumors swirling about this morning that A.J. Stewart was kicked off the team. Losing a role player like that doesn’t help matters, either. Still has plenty of time to play its way in.
(26-3, 28, 50, 0) The only good win on the entire schedule is over Utah. And I fear Utah State could see its history repeated: In 2003, the team was ranked in the Top 25 in the final weekend of the regular season and did not get a bid.
—SEED 66 LINE—
(18-10, 44, 33, 0) Gonzaga, Kansas, Washington and UCLA are such nice wins … but nothing good on the road. Couple that with losing at Washington State last night, and they are my 66th team.
(17-10, 58, 65, 1) The one quality win is a neutral-site game against Mich. St. I’m surprised the Terps have played themselves back into this thing. Probably going to need two wins in the ACC tournament.
(17-10, 52, 69, 3) Gets its chances: Duke, Carolina, Florida State finishes the slate.
(19-9, 77, 39, 2) That random-ass game against North Carolina Central last week killed the RPI. Punishment is deserved for scheduling that game then.
(20-8, 34, 55, 1) The road win came just the other night against Nebraska. Best win is LSU. I think it’s going to take 23 wins.
(19-9, 61, 73, 2) Bobbing in and out of the water; beat Minnesota and Illinois, then lost to Purdue. I’ve seen them play twice. Twelve losses is a death sentence.
(18-9, 31, 40, 2) Won four straight and staved off elimination since the last DotB. That win over Siena makes it all the more interesting.
(17-11, 55, 66, 2) If Michigan doesn’t beat UCLA in the Garden last fall, we’re not even talking about them. What a huge win at home against Purdue to get the Wolverines into the group.
(16-11, 47, 34, 1) A very diverse schedule, but this team has no good win outside of the Pac-10. Will take 10 wins to make it, and it’s at seven with three to play.
(18-8, 53, 43, 1) The Aztecs are the lowest of BYU, Utah, Vegas and SDSU. That means it can’t reach 10 losses. So it’s either wait to lose until the later rounds of the MWC, or win the MWC tournament.
(17-11, 71, 74, 1) Syracuse is the next best win outside of Pittsburgh. Not seriously in the discussion yet, but deserve the mention.
(23-5, 50, 54, 0) The team deserves consideration once Mills comes back.
I would put arizona in, leave kentucky out. And utah state probably doesn’t deserve it even though they only have three losses.
You also have minn too high. I hope no one pulls a georgia from last year and steals a bid.
Utah State has an RPI of 28, and will finish 30-3. They don’t deserve it? That’s pretty much a LOCK. Despite that, I think they’ll win their conference tourney. Even if they don’t, they will get in. Trust me.
The Mountain West Conference is VERY interesting. 4 COULD make it, other conferences are weaker this year. There could be a three-way tie among Utah, BYU, and New Mexico (all 11-4). Utah will probably lose at BYU on Sat, and probably lose at the Pit (nobody in the conference has won there).
New Mexico hasn’t gotten much chatter for consideration, mainly because they started off so poorly (3-4), but they should win their last two games, and with a strong appearance in the MW tourney, they could have serious consideration.
Unfortunately, it’s awfully unfair that UNLV gets to play at home every year for their tournament. Even when they’re a bad team, they still win there. That’s an automatic bid, every year. They’ll lose at SDSU, and If they lose their own tourney, I doubt they make it in. They haven’t looked good this year (I’ve seen about 5 of their games), despite some good W’s on their résumé.
It’ll be interesting to see how things turn out in this conference.
Sorry, I mean 12-4 conference records for the Mountain West.
I need to see New Mexico finish strong. I almost included it in the conversation, but I want to see how it plays this weekend first.
And yes: Vegas’ home-court advantage is unfair, but the MWC knows that’s the cash cow.
I think if Utah State loses one more, it’s doomed. It doesn’t have a good win, unfortunately, and we’ve seen this script before.
AND THE AGGIES LOSE AGAIN! Very interesting to see what happens.
Utah state is not in anymore….not after yesterday.
Oklahoma st. played its way in for sure.