CHJ has Ohio State and Penn State in the field right now. UK, Florida and Arizona are out.

Lot of shakeups around the land last night. Here’s the latest look at who I think is in and where the rest stand.

The locks:

That’s 24 locks from nine different conferences. Meaning that 15 at-large spots are now taken. 34-15= 19 spots left. It’s all starting to get really interesting.

Note: ALL RECORDS AND RANKINGS ARE AS OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Pomeroy ranking, quality road/neutral wins)

RPI Top 25: While the RPI is not a perfect system, I do always have one rule: If you’re in the top 25 teams in the RPI, you deserve to get into The Tournament. The system is built too “well” to deny anyone that can crack this group.

(20-9, 10, 27, 0) There’s a hideous 80-79 loss to D-II Southwest Baptist. Wins over Vegas, BYU and Gonzaga help the cause, and the New Mexico W was also significant now. But the Utes are riding on an eight-game winning streak, that’s why they’re here. Blowing its last two to BYU and New Mexico hurt it, but the RPI is still surprisingly good. Absolutely must beat TCU Saturday.
(21-9, 20, 9, 2) Ohio State is the best non-con win. Seems like a Tournament team, and the way others are eliminating themselves from the talk, WVU will probabaly quietly sneak in.

(18-10, 21, 42, 4) South Carolina is tonight, and a win would mean a sweep. Add that to their SOS (second-toughest), the Vols will be not only in, but likely get in a single-digit seed.

(23-6, 22, 12, 4) Has a very nice win over Utah State out of conference, but the Utah win Saturday was probably the clincher. Must avoid stubbing its toe in the first round of the MWC, which should be sending four teams this year. Period.

A LEVEL BELOW:

(22-8, 26, 21, 3) Beat Rutgers and all this squirming ends.

(21-8, 40, 29, 4) Cal’s going to make it, but the only reason I don’t have it as a lock is because if it lost three straight to end its season, it’d be dicey. Only one win is necessary.

(19-9, 37, 47, 3) In with a win over Northwestern Sunday. That’s no gimme.

(20-7, 42, 51, 2) Only has two quality road wins, and now gets a Tennessee team with as much on the line. The Gamecocks aren’t out of the dark yet. This SEC has been dreadful this year, and if Georgia was able to win again (after beating Kentucky) on Sunday, South Carolina would be in some trouble.

(20-10, 49, 66 , 3) B.C. got a ridiculous eight days off before the N.C. State game, then lost last night. next Wednesday. Losses to Harvard and St. John’s cancel out Carolina and Duke wins. Has a trumping win over Maryland. Not. Yet.

(21-8, 39, 44, 3) Has been a miserable road team this season. Wouldn’t trust them come the first round, but prepare to see the Gophers in the bracket. (And what if Kentucky wasn’t … ) Wisconsin win effectively will nudge the Gophers in.
(21-8, 51 , 53, 2). Still par for the course after beating BYU and losing to Utah. Must win its final game against San Diego State, which would likely knock the Aztecs out.

(24-5, 28, 79, 3) How does the Committee view the A10 this season? I think it’s a two-bid league. Would be pretty upset if a six-loss Dayton team didn’t get a nod.

(20-9, 27, 33, 4) Oklahoma State is absolutely in the field. Pokes have won six straight and have that cliche going for them: They’re playing their best basketball right now. Don’t blow this, OSU.

(18-11,  57, 62, 2) One quality win is a neutral-site game against Mich. St. The other is N.C. State. I’m surprised the Terps have played themselves back into this thing. Still probably going to need two wins in the ACC tournament.

(20-10, 74, 37, 3) I saw the way it played on the road at Gallagher-Iba. This teams deserves a nod, even though there’s nothing out of conference.

(22-8, 34, 48, 1) Will the Committee punish the Aggies but not K-State? Neither has anything out of conference, and it is hard to see two teams from the same conference (despite what the Committee says) get rewarded for that. But A&M’s play of late has been very good. It deserves a spot on that 12 line.
(17-11, 44, 31, 2) Georgia Tech nipped them last night. I get the feeling you’re going to be seeing an 18-12 Miami team get a bid. Many will be confused by it. I have to keep the ‘Canes in right now. The pool is shallow.

(26-4, 32, 52, 0) The only good win on the entire schedule is over Utah. And I fear Utah State could see its history repeated: In 2003, the team was ranked in the Top 25 in the final weekend of the regular season and did not get a bid.
(20-9, 66, 80, 2) Bobbing in and out of the water; beat Minnesota and Illinois, then lost to Purdue. It won’t hit 12 losses, which is huge, but the Big Ten’s rep might hurt it. Has wins over MSU, Purdue and Illinois, so it’s my last team in right now.

—SEED 66 LINE—

(18-11, 47, 32, 0) Gonzaga, Kansas, Washington and UCLA are such nice wins … but nothing good on the road. Couple that with losing three in a row, and I still can’t bring myself to put them over the line.

(17-12, 59, 69, 3) I’d be furious if this team got a bid. Does not deserve it. Losses to Virginia, Seton Hall, Georgia.

(18-11, 31, 28, 5) Peculiar spot for the Badgers at Minnesota last night. I feel guilty I left them off all this time. Perhaps I was too critical too early. I can’t bring myself to allow the Big Ten to have so many teams involved. I’m so torn! Wisky needs at least two more wins, in my eyes.

(20-10, 63, 30, 4) New Mexico has to factor in here. What a run by the Lobos. Team’s won seven of its last eight, and has four wins, all in conference, on the road against quality clubs.

(18-12, 61, 77, 2) What a loss can do. That South Florida drubbing knocked the Bearcats right out of my picture. Win that game, and you’re probably a 10-seed. That’s how bad USF is.

(19-11, 67, 45, 3) Ha. Yeah, right. Georgia is almost the 200th best team in the country. And you lose to them at home on senior night. Get the HELL out of here. Going to take three SEC tournament wins.

(23-7, 29, 72, 0) I just feel bad about the lack of mid-majors. If Siena got an at-large bid, I honestly don’t think I’d be surprised. Best win: at St. Joe’s.

(21-9, 50, 46, 1) Only good out of conference win is over Washington. Has done all the losing it can afford to do, probably.

(20-8, 46, 43, 1) The Aztecs are the lowest of BYU, Utah, Vegas and SDSU. That means it can’t reach 10 losses. So it’s either wait to lose until the later rounds of the MWC, or win the MWC tournament.

(18-11, 69, 71, 1) I would seriously consider knocking Penn State out and putting Providence in if the Friars win on the road tonight at Villanova to close out their regular season.

(23-5, 53, 54, 0) Gotta make the WCC finals. Have to.

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