It’s taken a few days weeks, but it’s finally here! Don’t stomp too hard; you’ll surely pop it. Don’t dance too quickly; you’ll likely lose your footing. Don’t stand still; the surface beneath you will sink in. Yes, the bubble is quite the fleeting menace.

This feature is not about projecting the field or anticipating what might happen. This is how I see the field of 65 and who I think should be in as of the date of this post. Today, January 29, 2010. No, I do not read any Bracketology.

Locks? There are none — yet. What defines a “lock” to me? Simple: If you can afford to lose every single game for the remainder of the season and still be granted an at-large berth despite that, you’re a lock. It’s safe to say that no one is safe from that yet. Of course a team like Kentucky isn’t going to lose all its games, but then what fun would this be?

I’m litigious with this, I know, but I do it purposefully in order to really be able to get a full scope of the at-large field. How many at-large candidates are there? Unfortunately, I’ve done hours of research, and whittled the field down to 67 teams with legitimate shots right now (and I could include four or five others if I wanted to). Others could eventually fight their way into the at-large picture. If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com.

As you probably know, there are only 34 at-large berths handed out each year, and the ratio of locks/bubblers will certainly become a lot tighter once February hits. I’m going to assume the near-locks take the auto bids. Plus, I’m going to assume all multiple-bid leagues will have a lock/near-lock eat up the auto bid. I’m also going to assume the leaders of the small conferences will NOT win, thus putting them in the at-large picture. There is more than 34 teams listed below because some will eat up auto bids.

Here’s the first group. The we-can’t-possibly-screw-this-up-right? group:

Note: All records and rankings are as of Jan. 29.

(Record vs. D-I, Pomeroy ranking, strength of schedule)

The rest of the RPI top 25:

Here’s the first group of teams. They are all ranked 25th or better in the RPI, and while the RPI is not a perfect system, I do believe if you can get in the top 25, you’re almost always guaranteed an at-large berth.

(15-4, 6, 7) The Hoyas would certainly be in the group above if they had been able to hold on to that 14-point lead in Syracuse Monday night.

(16-5, 7, 10) Wisconsin would certainly be in the group above if it had pulled out a win in Mackey last night.

(19-3, 40, 44) Would be shocked if the Lobos don’t win enough games to be a no-brainer in March. They have wins over Louisiana Tech, Texas A&M, Dayton and, most recently, a big one over BYU. Only bad loss is to 12-10 Oral Roberts.

(16-3, 59, 34) The Rams have a history of starting strong, losing only one or two games in the non-con and then falling right on their face in the A10 season. That win over Dayton was huh-yooge. Rams have also slayed Oklahoma State, Northeastern, Providence, underrated Fairfield and Boston College. Still plenty of proving to do, but I think Rhody actually bought itself one bad performance/get-out-of-jail-free cards.

(14-6, 23, 4) I think the strength of schedule is going to go a long way with the Muskies this year. What hurts right now is the fact Cincinnati is their best win. That hinders them, certainly. But they’re 6-1 in the A10, and if they win the regular season, I don’t see how the Selection Committee leaves the A10 winner out of The Dance this season.

(17-4, 34, 38) An 8-2 road record is a pretty strong case. Temple’s non-con SOS is 24, hearkening back to the days when John Chaney used to really schedule up with this team. The Owls’ schedule plays out that they get two easy ones, a hard one, etc. within the A10. Play to the averages and this on-pace-for-seven-losses team will get a bid no problem.

(16-4, 31, 14) Pitt’s going to look back to how it started the Big East slate and be thankful it pulled off five straight wins to start the season. I think the Panthers eventually slip to a 10-seed, but they’ll be fine if they beat the team’s they’re supposed to. Best win? Giving Syracuse its only loss to date.

(14-6, 17, 2) I love to rag on the Pac-10 as much as you. I get another chance here. Cal has cheated the system, in a way. They did schedule well out of conference, but they didn’t beat anybody. You get to 14-6 with the No. 2 strength of schedule, you get a bump in KenPom, RPI, whatever. The rest of the Pac-10 mustaches are praying the Bears blow it in the conference tourney. Now they have Theo Robertson back, so we can judge them at full strength. I think the Arizona game tomorrow is really big. Lose that? It all goes to shit.

(16-3, 20, 55) There were plenty of skeptics of Vandy’s credentials until it went on the road and took care of Tennessee this week. A Kentucky loss is perfectly acceptable, though losing to Mississippi State and Georgia (Vandy’s two games following UK) would not be. The non-con SOS of 119 will be a weight around this team’s neck if it pulls a Clemson and starts dropping a lot of games.

(20-2, 4, 134) Andy Glockner doubts the Cougs. My idol for all things bubble told me last week he doesn’t think this team is capable of going to the Final Four. I disagree. As for Tournament chances … uh … I’ll probably have them listed in the group above within two weeks. The strength of schedule hinders them for the short-term.

(17-3, 49, 60) There you are again, Gonzaga. Wins over Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Illinois, Oklahoma and St. Mary’s. Would take an epic collapse.

(14-5, 36, 26) Now here’s a team that intrigues me. The Deacs have gotten and will get so many more chances. Love the resume-stuffing wins over Gonzaga, Richmond, Xavier, Maryland and North Carolina. William & Mary and Miami (FL) losses are getting worse by the day. I think this team ultimately gets in, but could be one of those cases where people think they should be an 8-seed, get an 11, and it’s not until you do some digging to realize why that happened. BUT, they could turn it around. Unfortunately, no more scheduled shots against Duke.

(18-2, 37, 109) After a down 2009, the Missouri Valley is a level above. It’s not as strong as it was a half-decade ago, but Northern Iowa is the torch-bearer for all things mid-major this season. The Panthers have the talent for a Sweet 16 run, no doubt. A befuddling DePaul loss and an understandable clunker against Wichita State are the only slip-ups for Ben Jacobson’s team. The Mizzou Valley (1oth in KenPom) has plenty of “credible” teams, I guess you could say, but the Boston College and Siena wins are great to have up your sleeve. I’m guessing UNI gets another crack at a statement game when BracketBusters are released in a couple of days.

(18-2, 46, 117) I’m not seeing what’s so great about this group, despite it having the same record as the team mentioned above. The Blazers probably should have five losses, but the Committee doesn’t care about that stuff. Best win? Butler, who I think is overvalued this season as is. But Cincinnati and fellow C-USA chasers Marshall/Tulsa also lay in the wake of Mike Davis’ team. I promise you, they’re going to lose one or two bad games. Then, it gets interesting.

(15-4, 22, 37) The Vols are a different team now. They no longer have Tyler Smith.  The Committee has to judge this team without him. It is 5-2 without him, including the ultimate ace, that win over Kansas. They did just lose to Georgia and Vanderbilt. A Florida loss, and we’ll start talking.

A LEVEL BELOW:

(15-5, 18, 23) The Yellow Jackets have wins over Duke, UNC, Clemson and Wake Forest. And Siena. And Charlotte. And Southern Cal, when Southern Cal meant something in this crazy world.

(14-5, 8, 42) The Terrapins were my tied to my whipping post last season. This year, they’ve found an identity. Well, a positive one. That is to say: They aren’t blowing games. Terps are another of one William & Mary’s victims, but they do have … wait … wait a minute! There isn’t one good win outside of the ACC! This team is just like Cal! Fraud alert! Beat Clemson and Florida State to extend the winning streak to six and then I’ll forgive you for all you did to me in 2009.

(16-3, 35, 254) Seton Hall, Georgia, Penn State. This is what you’re putting on my desk right now? The record looks good, Malcom Delaney looks good, but I need to see a win over Clemson or North Carolina in the coming week before I can consider you anything but smoke and mirrors.

(15-5, 12, 83) The Tigers have remained fairly anonymous this season. However, they do have some wins to show the world: Illinois, Kansas State and Farleigh Dickinson. (Just checking to make sure you’re paying attention.) The critical spot for this team will be winning over Colorado twice, Nebraska and Iowa State in a six-game span. Just avoid the traps there and the Big 12’s mo’ should get them home free.

(16-4, 45, 49)  Until the win over Kansas State last weekend, the resume was seriously lacking. Let’s see if that was an aberration. This didn’t look like a Tournament team when I saw it lose to Rhode Island Jan. 2.

(15-5, 41, 165) It opened the season by losing to Rider, but then things turned quickly for the Bulldogs. Now there’s some panic after back-to-back losses to Alabama and Arkansas. You would think LSU could cure all ills tomorrow afternoon. Will revisit this group in next edition.

(16-4, 33, 69) Kansas State and UTEP. Not bad wins at all. Losses to Vllanova, WVU, Miss. St and Tennessee indicate to me we can’t go any higher with Ole Miss just yet.

(15-4, 14, 73) We’ve seen the value of Evan Turner, as Ohio State looked like an NIT team without him. Avenge the Minnesota loss tomorrow, and then it should be smooth sailing in the Big Ten until the Valentine’s Day game against Illinois.

(15-5, 25, 52) I know they’ve been in the rankings, but rankings mean JACK to the boys making the decisions. Non-con SOS: 214. Yeah, that’ll humble you every time. Marquette will show up as a good win on paper, but Marquette’s just not a great team. That’s FSU’s best out of the ACC. Now, in the ACC, the G-Tech win is nice, but more proving must be done. If you had told FSU fans they’d even be in this position without Toney Douglas they would’ve stolen — not taken — it.

(15-6, 24, 62) This is the Clemson we know. A hot start and now three straight losses. Butler, South Carolina, North Carolina are the standout wins. It has lost four of seven with Maryland, Virginia Tech and Florida State up next. It could get really bloody really fast if Oliver Purnell doesn’t teach his team so efficient ways to score the ball.

(17-4, 52, 101) A nice win over Louisville and wins over New Mexico and San Diego State will suffice for now. The Runnin’ Rebels will not be in a position of comfort for the rest of the year, unfortunately.

(13-7, 44, 27) Yes, haters, there is no doubt about the fact UNC would get a berth if selections happened tonight. Ohio State and Michigan State are two wins most teams I have above UNC can’t even touch. The only really bad loss is College of Charleston. Virginia, Virginia Tech and Maryland are the next three games. Absolutely have to win two of those, Roy.

(15-4, 21, 66) They’re better thank you think, I think. Then again, what do I know about what you think. I think a win over Texas tomorrow would put Baylor on the doorstep of lock land. It’s that big of a road game.

(16-4, 30, 56)  Butler’s a team we always assume is safe in the at-large picture. But it almost lost to Xavier; maybe should have lost to Xavier had the officials not screwed up. It has the two good wins that watermark its schedule in the Musketeers and Ohio State. If it doesn’t hit a skid in the Horizon, it’s going to get in. I don’t trust this team like I used to, though. Losses to Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown and UAB.

(13-7, 57, 29) The Bearcats love Hawaii more than the cast of Lost. Mick Cronin’s team went to the Maui Invitational in November and picked up insurance in the form of wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland. Those continue to look better. Not a horrifying loss on the schedule, but it needs to avoid hovering in the five-, six-above-.500 territory if it can.

(14-6, 48, 19) You know, I look through all these schedules and it’s like EVERYBODY has beaten either Clemson, Xavier or Ohio State. Aggies got Clemson back on Nov. 26. The nine-point loss to Washington doesn’t sit well with me. This team is very much teetering at the moment.

(13-7, 26, 20) Wouldn’t even be on the better side of the bubble if it hadn’t saved its own ass with a win over Ohio State, which had Evan Turner at the time. Gophers have dropped four of six and are only 4-4 in the Big Ten. Going .500 in that conference will not get you a bid unless your name is Michigan State, and we all know that’s not happening.

(13-7, 39, 1) UConn’s win over Texas resonates enough that it’s the 65th team in my pool. When you have the toughest schedule in the country and you’re a school like UConn, it’s hard to look away. Providence almost made me turn my head, though. Another shitty loss like that and it’s buh-bye.

———–SEED 66 LINE————–

NOTE: Consider the fact that there will be more one-bid leagues that come into play in the upcoming weeks, so at least four or five of these at-large candidates could spring above the 66 line very soon.

(15-5, 47, 99) I’m being very generous with my at-large pool at the moment. This will be whittled down to the 10 just outside the bracket by late February. So let’s look at Florida. Two shots away from being 13-7 with a miserable scheduling habit. That Michigan State win is the golden ticket if UF can get one more win against a Vandy, Tennessee, Kentucky.

(18-4, 68, 159) Wichita State couldn’t clip Pittsburgh when it wasn’t Pittsburgh (if you follow), and I wonder if that’s the dark cloud that won’t go away. The Shockers fell 68-55 to the Panthers on Nov. 23. They reeled off nine straight wins after that, including a win over Texas Tech. As of now, I don’t think they’re in. They’re 7-3 in conference. Four losses is the absolute ceiling.

(14-6, 71, 74) I’m a bastard because I want to see Northwestern not get in again. I root for the interesting storyline, which is NU falling just shy.  Why should I put them in the field right now? Since Christmas, this team is 4-5.

(14-6, 66, 57) Though I root for the Mountain West to get four teams, I know this simply won’t happen unless San Diego State goes on a killing spree. The Aztecs have no meat in the non-con (damn you, Arizona) and playing something called Pomona Pitzer (definitely not D1) only hurts you.

(17-5, 28, 113) Old fucking Dominion. Pardon the language, but that just rolls right off the tongue fingers. The CAA was looking to be an intriguing race, but now the Monarchs are the only team with a shot. That shot evaporates (can shots do that?) if they lose against Northeastern tomorrow. These guys do have a win over Georgetown.

(18-4, 65, 122) Siena is like Davidson in 2008. Scheduled up but couldn’t win any games against the big boys. Davidson won the SoCon tournament to make the issue moot. I think Siena, which is yet to lose in the MAAC, can afford precisely one loss before its conference tournament. That loss can only be to Niagara on Feb. 12. BracketBusters still out there, too.

(14-7, 29, 98) The only other Pac-10 team that makes this feature. You know what really hurts? A 3-4 record in road/neutral games. That’s gotta get above .500 as quickly as possible.

(15-5, 38, 133) Well, hello, Memphis. So weird to see you here. The UMass loss is really what sinks the Tigers right now. Well, that and the understandably laughable non-con schedule, given what Josh Pastner thought he was working with coming into the season.  Conference USA is no longer in their stranglehold, and the team just to UTEP as well. The UAB game Feb. 3 tickles my fancy.

(18-3, 42, 106) The Gaels have to beat Gonzaga on national television in Gonzaga’s gym on Feb. 11. That’s it. No arguments. Next.

(15-6, 27, 124) Giving BYU one of its two losses gets my attention. Already lost two games in the WAC. A third would be a death sentence.

(15-5, 85, 125) The best win is Southern Mississippi? Why am I even putting Marshall in here?

(13-7, 32, 8 ) You ask me who of note Louisville has beaten and I will tell you. Cincinnati. That just happened last weekend. Also on the fringe of not warranting an entry here.

(14-5, 43, 178) Lost in overtime to Ole Miss, hung tough with BYU. Eh. You seem like a good kid, so we’ll let you stay up a little later.

(13-8, 50, 61) Clemson, Vanderbilt and Northwestern is currency I’ll accept for January’s rent. Come February, more will be needed to reside here.

(12-8, 70, 24) Kentucky was great. Now make me forget all but one of your losses was by seven points or more.

(12-7, 55, 15) Straight to the NIT, folks. Why’d we believe in Seton Hall again? Cinci, Cornell, Louisville and Pittsburgh was a thick, dark smoke to shield us from the fact that the Pirates are definitely not one of the 34 best at-large candidates/teams out there.

(18-3, 86, 271) Karl Malone’s alma mater has wins over Utah State and Murray State. It’s enough for a sympathy mention. No chance with that SOS, I’m fairly certain.

(14-6, 83, 13) Too low for the Red Raiders? I think I might be harsh here. But the most impressive win is Washington. DO something, for crying out loud.

(15-5, 78, 101) The win over Louisville loses its shine by the week, man. Wins over Richmond (who just barely missed out here) and Temple are strong enough netting for now. Gonna be tough, though.

(15-6, 82, 65) The win over West Virginia only canceled out the embarrassing loss to Loyola Marymount, which is in the 200s. The Irish are a .500 Big East team right now. They need to be at 10-6 eight games from now.

(14-6, 58, 43) Winning against Georgia Tech was good, and I think I let that memory linger for too long. The Flyers are 3-3 in the A10 and suddenly in a ton of trouble. Ten games remain on the conference schedule, and it appears winning eight of them before going to Atlantic City is a mandate.

Tweet This Post