Clemson is, once again, in a mid-season swoon after a solid start. (AP)
To repeat from last week: This feature is not about projecting the field or anticipating what might happen. This is how I see the field of 65 and who I think should be in as of the date of this post: February 8, 2010. No, I do not read any Lunardi.
Locks? There are none — yet. What defines a “lock” to me? Simple: If you can afford to lose every single game for the remainder of the season and still be granted an at-large berth despite that, you’re a lock. Come next week, there will be a handful.
I’m litigious with this, I know, but I do it purposefully in order to really be able to get a full scope of the at-large field. If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com.
Now, lots of assumptions to make this projection all the more fun: I’m going to assume the near-locks take the auto bids. Plus, I’m going to assume all multiple-bid leagues (BCS, A10, Mountain West) will have a lock/near-lock eat up the auto bid. I’m also going to assume the leaders of the small conferences will NOT win, thus putting them in the at-large picture. So we’re looking at the worst-case scenario, basically, aside from a BCS conference getting a bid stolen by a Rutgers, Oregon, etc.
Before we get started, I want to address South Florida. It’s 5-6 in conference after losing on the road to Notre Dame. The Irish swept USF this season. I know the Bulls haven’t had Gus Gilchrist and have fared well without him — to an extent. It’s still 5-6 in a weaker Big East. South Florida has Marquette, Cincinnati and St. John’s in its next three. It’s simple: win two of those, and you’ll get on the list.
Here’s the first group. The we-can’t-possibly-screw-this-up-right? group:
Note: All records and rankings are as of Feb. 8.
(Record vs. D-I, Pomeroy ranking, strength of schedule)
The rest of the RPI top 25:
While the RPI is not a perfect system, I do believe if you can get in the top 25, you’re almost always guaranteed an at-large berth.
(21-3, 39, 49) Wins over Brigham Young and San Diego State since we last spoke. UNLV and Utah are up next. If the Lobos win both of those, they’ll leap to the company above.
(19-3, 67, 63) With a lot of mines to dodge in the A10, Rhode Island won’t be safe until it reaches 25 wins. But they have slayed Oklahoma State, Northeastern, Providence, Dayton, underrated Fairfield and Boston College. Still plenty of proving to do, but I think Rhody actually bought itself a couple bad performance/get-out-of-jail-free cards.
(21-2, 42, 103) It gets three more wins in the Missouri Valley — no easy task — to creep closer and closer to a lock. As long as Wichita State is chasing, that’s a good thing for the Panthers.
(20-4, 26, 39) Getting stronger and stronger, already up to 13-0 in the Horizon. Totally possible it could be 17-0 going into the Siena game. If that happens and Butler beats the Saints, it could be looking at a 5-seed or better.
(16-5, 30, 23) Love the resume-stuffing wins over Gonzaga, Richmond, Xavier, Maryland and North Carolina. William & Mary and Miami (FL) losses are getting worse by the day. My question is: How good are they? Nor worthy of a regional pod placement, right?
Lavoy Allen and Temple are probably OK from here on out. (AP)
(19-5, 47, 48) Sticking with the same tune: Play to the averages and this on-pace-for-seven-losses team will get a bid no problem.
(18-4, 19, 44) Florida, LSU, South Carolina. Toast, toast, toast. The Volunteers are on the precipice.
(17-5, 27, 24) I said … “A Kentucky loss is perfectly acceptable, though losing to Mississippi State and Georgia (Vandy’s two games following UK) would not be. The non-con SOS of 119 will be a weight around this team’s neck if it pulls a Clemson and starts dropping a lot of games.” What did Vandy do? Lose to Georgia, still giving us a reason to doubt it. I have no idea how this team’s SOS is #24.
(17-6, 37, 11) Beating Texas Tech, Missouri and Baylor in succession is just an awesome job by the Aggies. Believe it or not, if this team beats Kansas next week on Big Monday I’m giving it lock status.
(22-3, 7, 121) The smoking at Vegas keeps the Cougs on the other side of the fence.
(17-6, 33, 17) Dropped two of three since we last spoke but had a dominating win over Seton Hall Saturday. Game against Robert Morris tonight serves no purpose at all but to dip ranking numbers. Not exactly the tune-up you’d want for West Virginia. If Pitt defeats the ‘Eers, how could you not lock it up?
(19-4, 42, 67) There you are again, Gonzaga. Wins over Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Illinois, Oklahoma, Memphis and St. Mary’s. Would take an epic collapse. Navigate two more wins and I’m promoting your ass.
(17-6, 21, 23) The Yellow Jackets have wins over Duke, UNC, Clemson and Wake Forest. And Siena. And Charlotte. And Southern Cal, when Southern Cal meant something in this crazy world. Miami, Wake Forest and North Carolina are the next three. Go 2-1 and put yourself in a really good position for a bid.
A LEVEL BELOW:
(18-6, 12, 91) Practically a lock, despite its placement this week. Ohio State is quickly becoming the chic team.
(16-6, 8, 31) There isn’t one good win outside of the ACC, but Maryland, with wins over Florida State and UNC as of late, isn’t messing around this season. Good for them.
(18-4, 35, 237) I ask for wins over Clemson or North Carolina and Virginia Tech delivers. The non-con SOS is going to kill Va. Tech’s seeding, but this team is making The Dance after slightly cheating the system.
In better shape: A&M or Baylor? (AP)
(17-6, 13, 77) The Tigers have remained fairly anonymous this season. The critical spot for this team will be winning over Colorado twice, Nebraska and Iowa State in a six-game span. Just avoid the traps there and the Big 12’s mo’ should get them home free.
(19-4, 32, 98) My faith in the Mountain West pays off. Did you catch any of the game against BYU? Deadly stuff. If Vegas plays like that, it can easily reach the second weekend.
(17-5, 15, 26) I said … “I think a win over Texas tomorrow would put Baylor on the doorstep of lock land.” On the doorstep it remains, because it didn’t get a crucial road win at Texas A&M. Nothing too worry about with this group, though.
(17-6, 23, 55) Come bracket time, you probably don’t want to pick this group as one who will upset anyone. Last four games are losses to Duke and Maryland and wins over Miami and Boston College.
(17-6, 40, 51) It would take a big collapse for Ole Miss to fall out of favor. Even though the team is 5-4 in the SEC, there’s a lot of crap below them.
(16-7, 29, 20) Game against Florida on Saturday suddenly becomes very big for both teams. What hurts right now is the fact Cincinnati is Xavier’s best win. That hinders them, certainly.
(16-7, 22, 33) Lost four of five, yet the SOS just jumped 33 spots. The alarms are sounding. Red alert! Red alert!
(15-8, 17, 2) Not really sure why I’m even including this team now. I guess the No. 2 SOS really sways me. It lost to Arizona after I told it not to, then followed that up with an L against USC. Cal can only afford two more losses, Pac-10 tournament included.
(16-7, 38, 148) Yikes. Lost four of its last five with the only win coming against LSU School for the Deaf.
(17-5, 36, 111) They make the cut with an 8-1 record in Conference USA and wins over contenders Memphis, UAB and Tulsa.
(19-4, 58, 106) A 1-2 team in the past three games, with the win coming against Rice. The Blazers probably should have five losses, but the Committee doesn’t care about that stuff. Best win? Butler. But Cincinnati and fellow C-USA chasers Marshall/Tulsa also lay in the wake of Mike Davis’ team. Losing to UTEP and Memphis was a balancing of the scales.
(20-4, 64, 122) Big game coming up against Butler on Feb. 20 for BracketBusters. If the Saints lose their final game (which would make them 0-5) against a Tournament-esque team, they’re probably toast. Siena is like Davidson in 2008. Scheduled up but couldn’t win any games against the big boys. Davidson won the SoCon tournament to make the issue moot. I think Siena, which is yet to lose in the MAAC, can afford precisely one loss before its conference tournament. That loss can only be at Niagara this Friday. It gets Fairfield at home tonight, which is no gimme.
———–SEED 66 LINE————–
NOTE: Consider the fact that there will be more one-bid leagues that come into play in the upcoming weeks, so at least four or five of these at-large candidates could spring above the 66 line very soon.
(17-6, 43, 82) Wonder if that loss to Richmond on Dec. 19 is going to haunt this group. That said, that Michigan State win is the golden ticket if UF can get one more win against a Vandy, Tennessee, Kentucky. The Gators narrowly escaped a gashing loss to Alabama. If Billy Donovan loses to Xavier Saturday, mid-majors will point to this team as the reason why they deserve a shot over BCS schools.
(20-5, 71, 122) I said … “Four losses is the absolute ceiling.” Well, splitting the season series with UNI means the Shockers are now at four losses in the Missouri Valley. BracketBusters game against Utah State is the team’s opportunity. Loser of that one will truly be busted.
(18-6, 55, 64) A dissenting voice! And I love the A10! I just want a little more from the Spiders. The previous team with a 55 KenPom ranking was Seton Hall. It’s not around anymore. Richmond is different. The Spiders got a huge home win over Temple over the weekend, but its three-game winning streak after Thanksgiving is going to probably get this team into The Dance: Mississippi State, Missouri, Old Dominion.
(14-8, 31, 32) Wouldn’t even be on the better side of the bubble if it hadn’t saved its own ass with a win over Ohio State, which had Evan Turner at the time. Gophers are only 5-5 in the Big Ten. Going .500 in that conference will not get you a bid unless your name is Michigan State, and we all know that’s not happening.
(16-7, 63, 71) Since we last kissed: wins over Michigan and Indiana; a loss to Michigan State. Since Christmas, this team is 6-6. It will shoot up on everyone’s list if it wins its next three easy ones — Iowa, home to Minnesota and Penn State. Northwestern’s in a bad spot, because any of those losses will prevent it from getting above .500 in the Big Ten. It’s 5-6 at the moment.
(16-7, 61, 30) *Rubs hands through hair* Dude, all these teams suuuuuuuuuuuuuuck.
(21-3, 46, 146) The Gaels have to beat Gonzaga on national television in Gonzaga’s gym on Feb. 11. That’s it. No arguments. Next.
(18-6, 24, 104) Giving BYU one of its two losses gets my attention. Already lost two games in the WAC. A third would be a death sentence. It still hasn’t happened yet.
(16-8, 54, 92) I said … “Clemson, Vanderbilt and Northwestern is currency I’ll accept for January’s rent. Come February, more will be needed to reside here.” Michigan State will pay the rent, but I’m going to need utilities money in the next two weeks. Wisconsin, Ohio State, Purdue. That’s a rough, rough road. Winning one would mean going 2-2 in the toughest Big Ten stretch any team will face this season. I think that will be good enough. Wisconsin or Purdue would be a road win, meaning it would carry a little more weight.
(13-9, 79, 28) As badly as I would like to not include a 13-9 team, the Gamecocks do have wins over South Florida, Richmond and Kentucky. Wins over Florida and Georgia will keep The Other USC in the picture.
(13-10, 62, 19) The wins over Ohio State and Michigan State are keeping UNC afloat. Holy shit this has turned into a grease fire.
(15-8, 18, 56) The Golden Eagles have reeled off four straight to go from 2-5 to 6-5 in the Big East. I cannot deny them any longer. Some think Marquette is as good as fourth-best in the Big East. Let’s pump the breaks on that one.
(18-5, 85, 153) The win over Louisville loses its shine by the week. Wins over Richmond and Temple are strong enough netting for now. I don’t see how the Selection Committee leaves the A10 winner out of The Dance this season. 49ers are leading the chase as of now. That 85 KenPom ranking is a real scab, however.
(13-9, 53, 8 ) Will UConn stick around the party and get a win over Syracuse Wednesday?
(17-7, 75, 62) I said … “They need to be at 10-6 eight games from now.” That was in reference to its Big East record. They’re at 6-5. Seton Hall, St. John’s, Louisville are the next three. Gotta win all of them, Irish.
(15-8, 25, 4) Cincinnati and Connecticut are the best wins. Neither of those teams are at-large getters. Winning at Syracuse would be about as big of a game-changer as any team could face in this field.
(14-9, 74, 18) No team fell harder yet stayed in the picture like Cincinnati. No slack left to cut. UConn, USF, Marquette, DePaul, WVU, ‘Nova, Georgetown. Have to figure out how to go 4-3 or better entering the Big East tournament.
(14-6, 41, 41) I still say winning all but two of their remaining games in the A10 will be needed.
(16-7, 56, 54) Though I root for the Mountain West to get four teams, I know this simply won’t happen unless San Diego State goes on a killing spree. The Aztecs have no meat in the non-con (damn you, Arizona) and playing something called Pomona Pitzer (definitely not D1) only hurts you. Is 5-4 in the MWC, has seven games last and has to finish 11-5 to have a shot.
(18-7, 28, 73) Must run the regular-season table. Old Dominion was the torch-bearer for the CAA.
(16-7, 50, 86) Recent losses to SMU and Gonzaga have the Tigers on life support. Best wins: Southern Miss, Marshall, UAB.
(15-7, 82, 15) A pity mention, really. It’s 3-5 in the Big 12, but remained on the operating table after taking out Oklahoma State.
