MVP? Hardly. Notre Dame played its best, most unpredictable basketball of the season with Luke Harangody on the bench.

Well, the bids have to go somewhere, don’t they? We can complain about how weak this bubble is all we want to, but a few of these teams are going to find a way into the field. I’ll put up my final bubble picture/predictions Sunday morning. I remind you, this is now how I think the committee is going pick; it’s how I think the field should be selected. Makes the inevitable bitching that much more validated, you know? Once again, here’s how I’m determining my field of 65.

• New Mexico or BYU takes the MWC auto bid
• Temple takes the A10 auto bid
• UTEP takes the C-USA auto bid (but still listed where they fall as an at-large)
• All BCS conferences have a lock take the auto bid

I’m also going to assume the leaders of the small conferences will NOT win (meaning locks Butler, Gonzaga would steal an at-large), thus putting them in the at-large picture. So we’re looking at the worst-case scenario for the small guys.

If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com.

Auto bids taken/bubble spots saved:

Lock ‘em up:

Note: All records and rankings are as of March 1.

(Record vs. D-I, Pomeroy ranking, strength of schedule)

The RPI top 25:

While the RPI is far, far from a perfect system, I do believe if you can get in the top 25, you’re almost always guaranteed an at-large berth.

(21-9, 16, 10) Vital victories: None. Damaging defeats: UCLA; @ Oregon State. The win over Arizona State was a very big one, but if the Sun Devils are just barely a bubble team, how can the victory be vital? I think, just to be safe, Cal needs to win one game in the Pac-10 tournament, which is no gimme. Beyond that, it should be fine.

A LEVEL BELOW:

(19-9, 41, 34) Vital victories: @ Gonzaga; Xavier; Maryland; Clemson. Damaging defeats: William & Mary; @ Miami; @ N.C. State; North Carolina. Finally ended the losing streak by winning at home over Clemson. Resume is strong enough that it’s going to get in, but like Cal, needs one more W. That can come Thursday against Miami.

(23-7, 36, 78) Vital victories: Louisville; @ New Mexico; BYU. Damaging defeats: Utah (twice). Getting swept by Utah is all that’s keeping UNLV from being a lock. In the MWC tournament the Rebels get — who else — Utah. Best be wise to slay that demon and avoid going 0-3. If it were to win that, BYU would be next, and beating the Cougars would leave little doubt. But let’s not fool ourselves: one more win ought to do it.

(23-7, 28, 132) Vital victories: Clemson; Wake Forest. Damaging defeats: None. It would be enough for me if V-Tech ended the season 22-8, but I don’t know if that’ll sit with the Selection Committee. Probably will, but V-Tech’s resumé is so void of character and quality. The win over Georgia Tech not only stopped the bleeding but was probably the trump card.

(20-10, 22, 56) Vital victories: Xavier; Georgetown. Damaging defeats: N.C. State; @ DePaul. No one laments the Selection Committee’s decision to no longer factor in the final 12 games of a season more than Marquette is this year. Golden Eagles have won nine of their last 11 games and done so in impressive, clutch fashion. Dropping a home OT tilt against Notre Dame doesn’t kill them. It’d be best to defeat the UConn-St. John’s winner, but after beating Louisville earlier last week, I think MU is safe.

(24-5, 39, 141) Vital victories: @ Memphis; UAB (twice). Damaging defeats: New Mexico State; @ Houston. The Miners could’ve fallen last week in tricky games against Marshall and UAB. But no. Getting to 15-1 in C-USA, it’d take the worst possible perfect storm to leave them out.

(18-13, 56, 57) Vital victories: @ Clemson; Vanderbilt; Michigan State; @ Wisconsin. Damaging defeats: Utah; Bradley; Georgia; @ Northwestern; Minnesota. The RPI now is at 73 and you’d think the Illini have to get that 15 spots higher in the next six days. I thought it could be as simple as beating Wisconsin Thursday in the Big Ten quarters, but maybe not? Would 19-14 (meaning a win over UW and a loss to OSU) be good enough? Those are the two teams Illinois just lost to this week. If you’re thinking I need to be more definitive, then yes, I think Illinois needs only one more win; look at who this team has beaten.

If ODU had lost to VCU yesterday, I think we would have had a Hoftstra-in-2006 situation.

(25-8, 34, 79) Vital victories: @ Georgetown; Charlotte. Damaging defeats: none. ODU finished with a 15-3 record in a solid CAA this year. Can’t put them as a lock, but I think they’re getting in, even if they lose to William & Mary tonight. Bill and Mary have better OOC wins than even ODU, so it’s not a damaging defeat. However, if ODU had lost to VCU yesterday, I think we would have had a Hoftstra-in-2006 situation on our hands. Remember when a lot of people complained about that omission? And what school took its place? George Mason.

NEED 2 WINS:

(20-11, 49, 45) Vital victories: Florida State; Michigan State; @ Tennessee. Damaging defeats: South Alabama; @ South Carolina; Georgia. Dropped three in a row and still in the mix. Never thought I’d see that. Now it gets Auburn first in the SEC tournament. Losing that would boot the Gators. A win wouldn’t necessarily mean much. I don’t think Florida’s a Tournament team. My biggest problem with the is the eye test.

(21-10, 47, 52) Vital victories: West Virginia; @ Georgetown; Pittsburgh. Damaging defeats: Loyola Marymound; @ Rutgers; St. John’s. From dead in the water to back to life and taking everything you own. Notre Dame is a menace right now. Team has reeled off four straight wins in the Big East that are as strong as any other club could put forward: Pittsburgh, @ Georgetown, Connecticut, @ Marquette. With a first-round bye, No. 7 Notre Dame awaits the winner of Seton Hall and Providence. A win there just might do it, but beating Villanova Thursday is the clincher.

(19-11, 29, 25) Vital victories: Duke; Wake Forest; Siena. Damaging defeats: @ Georgia; @ Virginia; @ Miami. Lost two more games, seem all of its numbers continue to plummet and now are on the brink. If Georgia Tech loses to North Carolina Thursday, hello, NIT.

———–SEED 66 LINE———–

(23-6, 31, 90) Vital victories: BYU; Wichita State. Damaging defeats: @ Long Beach State. Utah State has not lost since Jan. 4. I think it deserves a bid. I think it’s going to win the auto one, though. Will wait and see. If it loses in WAC final, I’m bumping it up.

(22-9, 37, 71) Vital victories: San Diego State. Damaging defeats: cAL (twice); @ UCLA; @ USC; Arizona. Forgot to include ASU and Washington (below) when I posted this earlier. Can’t deny either of them inclusion, at least, right now. The record has improved and so have the numbers. The best thing for the Pac-10 is for the Sun Devils and Huskies to be on a crash course for the conferences semis. That way, the winner stands a very good chance at getting the conference two bids. If ASU was to fail to win a game, it’d have no shot. But hope is alive for two teams, remarkably.

(22-8, 43, 62) Vital victories: New Mexico; UNLV. Damaging defeats: @ Wyoming; @ Pacific. SDSU has five losses in the conference and needs to reach the conference semis. Now feeling like a MWC title-game appearance is going to have to be part of the equation. Aztecs do have seven road wins, which is very good.

(21-10, 53, 114) Vital victories: Ole Miss (twice). Damaging defeats: Rider; @ Western Kentucky; @ Alabama @ Auburn. Bulldogs are in trouble because they won the SEC West, which was terrible, and so they get a bye. That gives them one less chance to get a win. Right now, they await the Florida-Auburn winner, and that’s not going to be enough. Short of winning the SEC tournament, the Bulldogs will have to keep it close and competitive in the final.

(23-7, 61, 109) Vital victories: Butler; Cincinnati. Damaging defeats: Kent State; Memphis (twice); UTEP (twice). It goes 0-4 against C-USA’s other two top teams. Bad scenario. I don’t see how UAB can justify playing itself into an at-large spot now, though I know others have them higher on other boards. Losing all your games against Tournament-quality competition in your conference? Who else gets the benefit of the doubt? That never happens. UAB’s not getting in.

(21-9, 52, 64) Vital victories: K-State; UTEP. Damaging defeats: Arkansas; Mississippi State (twice). Won four in a row to catch up to the group and reach 9-7 in the SEC. Has fallen to Villanova, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky. And only one win against the RPI top 50. Two in the SEC tournament will be needed, if not more. Problem is, it got swept by Miss. State, and the Bulldogs had the same record in conference. SOS isn’t going to do much for Ole Miss here because it didn’t do much with its chances.

(21-9, 33, 60) Vital victories: Texas A&M; California. Damaging defeats: @ Texas Tech; Oregon; USC (twice); @ UCLA; @ Arizona. Lotta folks think Washington and ASU are neck and neck, but my take’s that U-Dub has been pretty terrible on the road (until recently, against mediocre competition) and that’s ultimately going to hurt them for a bid. I think if the Committee had all bubble teams lined up right now, the Huskies would be five or six slots below ASU. Team’s got the talent to win the the Pac-10, though, and I’d make them my pick to do it.

(25-5, 51, 138) Vital victories: @ Utah State; San Diego State; UTEP. Damaging defeats: Gonzaga (twice). I don’t see why Saint Mary’s gets in if it loses tonight. I’m the only guy out there not marching to this at-large beat, I’m sorry. Three chances to beat Gonzaga, and if you go 0-3, you’re done. You’ve proven you’re not a Tournament team. Best wins are over two other teams I still don’t have in the field. No way is that good enough.

(17-14, 45, 2) Vital victories: Texas; @ Villanova; West Virginia. Damaging defeats: Cincinnati (twice); @ Providence; @ Michigan; @ Notre Dame ; @ South Florida. The bad losses have added up, knocked UConn down and might be so much that not even a Big East title-game appearance will save it. The numbers help UConn, with the SOS at 2 and RPI still a respectable 44. But there’ve been too many bad losses for everyone to see. If it’s somehow able to get past St. John’s Tuesday, then beat Marquette Wednesday, well, we’ll have some more intrigue. But it might be time for this team to die as quickly as possible.

(23-8, 50, 99) Vital victories: Marshall; UAB (twice). Damaging defeats: UMass; @ Southern Methodist; @ Houston. Clinging to this team because, in my heart of hearts, I think if they lost a close game in the CUSA title game they’d have a case.

(19-11, 44, 39) Vital victories: Georgia Tech; Old Dominion; Xavier. Damaging defeats: @ St. Joe’s; @ Saint Louis. Dayton had its chances and it blew them. Lost to Richmond and Saint Louis this week. A10, look at what you’ve done to yourself. You should be disgusted.

(21-8, 75, 68) Vital victories: Okie State; @ Dayton. Damaging defeats: Richmond; @ Saint Louis; @ Saint Boneventure; @ UMass. Same story. Rhody blows it again. Fans are talking about a boycott of the A10 tournament now.

(19-11, 97, 99) Vital victories: @ Louisville; @ Richmond; Temple. Damaging defeats: @ Duke; Duquesne; @ Old Dominion. Same story. Fell to Rhode Island and Richmond. Has lost six of last seven. Kaput. What was once a six-bid possibility is now down to three.

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