I’ve been told that these are long, but I know I’ve got new eyes to the site occassionally, so I’ll still keep up basic stats in order to allow you to decide for yourselves who should be in/out.

St. Joe’s and Vegas lock themselves up with wins yesterday. And maybe the picture is clearer than you think. Why? Well, if so many teams lost, why should the bubble change all THAT much? For all of the talk that there is over “nobody wants to make this thing! No one’s winning!” maybe not all that much has shifted. If all of the questionable teams lost, shouldn’t they basically still be in the same position as before those losses took place?

The arithmetic:
—17 automatic bids have been handed out
—There are 37 locks, not counting auto-bids Drake and Butler.
—Having done out my own bracket, there are SEVEN spots left not occupied by locks, auto bids or one-bid conferences.

LOCKS:

(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Record vs. RPI Top 50) [Using the ever-reliable kenpom.com]

Bubblicious (7): Here’s who I have in.

(20-10, 43, 3-8) This is why we don’t presume things ahead of time. Will they be this year’s Syracuse?
Notable wins: Notre Dame, Texas A&M
Notable losses: Washington State, Arkansas, Oklahoma twice

(18-13, 58, 4-9) Their K-State win continues to help, and they swept Arizona. Ducks, in my mind, should be in.
Notable wins: Kansas State, Arizona twice
Notable losses: Washington, Oakland, St. Mary’s

(19-11, 50, 3-6) Kansas State has lost six of its last eight. Last year K-State was 56th in the RPI, 22-11 overall, 88 SOS and was 2-5 against the top 50. Their SOS this year? 28. So, if the numbers are just SLIGHTLY better, and you could argue they were the second team out (’Cuse had to best first), I guess they’re in this year. The Kansas win puts them over the top.
Notable wins: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Notable losses: Oregon, Notre Dame, George Mason, Xavier

(19-12, 83, 5-7) I’M putting them in, but I don’t know if the commitee will. No team has ever gotten an at-large bid with an 80-or-worse RPI, right? I think they’ll be snubbed, someone with a much weaker list of victims will get in, and you’ll hear plenty about how the Pac-10 was the toughest conference, and how ASU got hosed.
Notable wins: Arizona twice, Xavier, Stanford
Notable losses: Illinois, Nebraska, Wash. State and UCLA twice

(20-12, 51, 3-7) Eyeball test tells me yes. A loss to Georgetown in the Big East quarters isn’t the worst thing in the world.
Notable wins: UConn, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: St. Joe’s, Rutgers, N.C. State

(21-10, 44, 1-4) Eyeballs tell me 13 seed.
Notable wins: Syracuse, Dayton, Rhode Island twice
Notable losses: Fordham, Northern Iowa, St. Joe’s twice

(18-14, 39, 5-8) They’ve played like dog-you-know-what, but I have to cave. If only Ohio State had won yesterday. ‘But I still prefer that ‘Zona not be in the field. If Temple wins or Kent State loses, I’m bumping them out.
Notable wins: Texas A&M, UNLV, Washington State twice
Notable losses: Memphis, Kansas, Arizona State twice, UCLA twice, Stanford twice

——————–SEED 66 LINE———————–

(24-6, 37, 3-2) I just don’t see it. The committee could see it the other way. Their final loss? To 108-ranked Middle Tennessee State.
Notable wins: Mississippi State, Western Kentucky twice
Notable losses: Mississippi, Vanderbilt, North Texas

(19-13, 46, 2-10) Ten losses against the top 50 is tooooo many.
Notable wins: Syracuse, Florida, Purdue, Michigan State
Notable losses: Texas A&M, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan

(20-12, 56, 3-4) The Owls can make this moot be taking out St. Joe’s in less than four hours.
Notable wins: Xavier, UMass
Notable losses: Florida, Duke, Villanova, Fordham

(21-10, 33, 3-4) Granted, it was Xavier, but they probably needed that win to get them in.
Notable wins: Louisville, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: George Washington, La Salle, George Mason

(24-8, 59, 1-4) They needed that OT win over Utah last night.
Notable wins: UNLV
Notable losses: BYU twice, Ole Miss, TCU

(24-7, 55, 0-2) …No.
Notable wins: Maryland, Houston
Notable losses: Miami (FL), Arkansas, James Madison

(23-9, 35, 2-5) After getting their doors blown out against Drake, I won’t put them in. Drake won all three meetings, this team has no signature wins outside of their conference and even Creighton being their best W is definitely alarming.
Notable wins: Sweeps of Creighton, Southern Illinois
Notable losses: Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Drake twice

(19-13, 53, 1-7) No chance. Their only good win was yesterday against Miami.
Notable wins: Miami (FL)
Notable losses: Butler, Gonzaga, Old Dominion, Penn State

All of these teams lost yesterday: Oregon, Florida, Ole Miss, Maryland, Dayton, Arizona State, Baylor, Villanova and UAB. Tag on Syracuse from Wednesday, and maybe the picture is clearer than you think. Why? Well, if so many teams lost, why should the bubble change all THAT much? For all of the talk that there is over “nobody wants to make this thing! No one’s winning!” maybe not all that much has shifted. If all of the questionable teams lost, shouldn’t they still be in the same position as before those losses took place?

However, I do have to put one team into the fold that I haven’t had since the first installment back in early January. (I’m not saying who it is here.)

The arithmetic:
—12 automatic bids have been handed out
—There are 36 locks, not counting auto-bids Drake and Butler. (Texas A&M, West. Va join up.)
—There are nine one-bid leagues left.
—Having done out my own bracket, there are NINE spots left not occupied by locks, auto bids or one-bid conferences.

If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com. Or you can just post in the comments, which is always encouraged.

LOCKS:

Note: ALL RECORDS AND RANKINGS ARE AS OF FRIDAY MORNING.

Here are the nine (in order) remaining teams that fill up the brackets, followed by the teams that just miss out.

(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Record vs. RPI Top 50) [Using the ever-reliable kenpom.com]

One win away (3): One more W will mean lock status.

(19-10, 45, 3-5) The Beasley appeal has to factor into the committee’s mindset. How can it not? I still proclaim they’ll need at least one Big XII tourney win, so let’s wait for that today when they play A&M.
Notable wins: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Notable losses: Oregon, Notre Dame, George Mason, Xavier

(19-12, 46, 2-9) Wouldn’t you love to be a Buckeye right now? It wasn’t good enough to defeat Michigan State and Purdue in your past two games, you’re going to have to defeat Michigan State again in order to lock up a spot.
Notable wins: Syracuse, Florida, Purdue, Michigan State
Notable losses: Texas A&M, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan

(23-7, 29, 1-3) It feels weird making UNLV a lock right now, but they took care of business last night against TCU (but only won by one), so beating Utah tonight would absolutely do it.
Notable wins: None
Notable losses: Louisville, Arizona, Air Force

Bubblicious (6): Where the line is blurred.

(20-10, 42, 3-8) This is why we don’t presume things ahead of time.
Notable wins: Notre Dame, Texas A&M
Notable losses: Washington State, Arkansas, Oklahoma twice

(19-12, 81, 5-7) Tough loss to Southern Cal yesterday puts their RPI at a B-R-U-T-A-L ranking of 81. I’M putting them almost definitely, but I don’t know if the commitee will. No team has ever gotten an at-large bid with an 80-or-worse RPI, right? Notable wins: Arizona twice, Xavier, Stanford
Notable losses: Illinois, Nebraska, Wash. State and UCLA twice

(18-13, 56, 4-9) What to do here … I think you have to put Oregon in. I think their K-State win continues to help whether or not the Wildcats win or lose today, and they swept Arizona. I understand that you could make an argument to keep ‘Zona in if you take Oregon…
Notable wins: Kansas State, Arizona twice
Notable losses: Washington, Oakland, St. Mary’s

(20-12, 51, 3-7) Eyeball test tells me yes. A loss to Georgetown in the Big East quarters isn’t the worst thing in the world.
Notable wins: UConn, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: St. Joe’s, Rutgers, N.C. State

(21-10, 43, 1-4) Losing to Charlotte invited more trouble than the Minutemen needed. They need to hope more bubble teams lose today.
Notable wins: Syracuse, Dayton, Rhode Island twice
Notable losses: Fordham, Northern Iowa, St. Joe’s twice

(20-11, 50, 3-4) A win today over Xavier will absolutely do it.
Notable wins: Xavier, Villanova, UMass twice
Notable losses: Syracuse, Gonzaga, Holy Cross

——————–SEED 66 LINE———————–

(18-14, 39, 5-8) No. I refuse to put Arizona in and I’ll have a post up on it in a little while.
Notable wins: Texas A&M, UNLV, Washington State twice
Notable losses: Memphis, Kansas, Arizona State twice, UCLA twice, Stanford twice

(24-8, 58, 1-4) They needed that OT win over Utah last night.
Notable wins: UNLV
Notable losses: BYU twice, Ole Miss, TCU

(24-6, 34, 3-2) I still have to put South Alabama on the outside right now. Everyone suddenly seems to be an expert on this team, but I’m still trying to decide if they belong. I reserve the right to change my mind here.
Notable wins: Mississippi State, Western Kentucky twice
Notable losses: Mississippi, Vanderbilt, North Texas

(24-7, 55, 0-2) It’s going to be a long week for the Rams, who suffered that bad loss to William & Mary in the CAA semis. The RPI is right in the gray area and they don’t have a lot of good-win ammo. This is an ultimate bubble team, and I think you have to give them the nod over South Alabama, barely.
Notable wins: Maryland, Houston
Notable losses: Miami (FL), Arkansas, James Madison

(21-10, 32, 3-4) Granted, it was Xavier, but they probably needed that win to get them in.
Notable wins: Louisville, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: George Washington, La Salle, George Mason

(19-13, 52, 3-8) Funny … yesterday I thought they had no shot, but if Va. Tech, UNLV and St. Joe’s lose today, they could sneak in through the back door. I know it sounds crazy, but this could be the wackiest Selection Sunday yet.
Notable wins: Saint Joseph’s, Georgetown
Notable losses: UMass, Rhode Island, Ohio State, South Florida

(19-12, 60, 3-4) Welcome back Temple! Hey, the Owls finished second in the A-10, they’re playing as well as anyone (Xavier aside), so they have to be mentioned now. If all of these other teams are bowing out early, and they can reach the A-10 title game, why shouldn’t they be in?
Notable wins: Xavier, UMass
Notable losses: Florida, Duke, Villanova, Fordham

(23-9, 33, 2-5) After getting their doors blown out against Drake, I won’t put them in. Drake won all three meetings, this team has no signature wins outside of their conference and even Creighton being their best W is definitely alarming. Still, with everyone losing, does Illinois State start to look better?
Notable wins: Sweeps of Creighton, Southern Illinois
Notable losses: Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Drake twice

(18-14, 82, 1-5) Thank you, Terps, for proving me right.
Notable wins: North Carolina
Notable losses: UCLA, Ohio, American

(22-10, 54, 1-2) Their loss to Tulsa yesterday put the dragons to bed.
Notable wins: Kentucky
Notable losses: Wichita State, Rhode Island, South Florida

(21-11, 72, 2-8) Just letting you know that they have no shot.
Notable wins: Kentucky, Vanderbilt
Notable losses: Ohio State, LSU, Florida State

(18-12, 59, 0-6) Seth Greenberg (in case you missed it) doesn’t want to hear about anyone dismissing this team’s bubble chances. They have such a great chance to play their way in. It starts today, when the MUST MUST MUST beat Miami.
Notable wins: Miami (FL), Arkansas
Notable losses: Butler, Gonzaga, Old Dominion, Penn State

Alright, here’s an updated version before the ACC, Big Ten, Big XII and SEC conferences get their engines warm today.
—12 automatic bids have been handed out
—There are 34 locks, not counting auto-bids Drake and Butler.
—There are 9 one-bid leagues left.
—Having done out my own bracket, there are 13 spots left not occupied by locks, auto bids or one-bid conferences. (That adds up to more than 65 teams because of the swing that can occur if all —The two most intriguing storylines at the moment: A) Will Villanova’s win over Syracuse be enough? B) Who did San Diego and Western Kentucky knock out when they won their conference tournaments?

If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com. Or you can just post in the comments, which is always encouraged.

LOCKS:

Note: ALL RECORDS AND RANKINGS ARE AS OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

Here are the 13 (in order) remaining teams that fill up the brackets and the teams that just miss out.

(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Record vs. RPI Top 50) [Using the ever-reliable kenpom.com]

One win away (5): One more W will mean lock status.

(21-9, 46, 4-6) Stumblin’ to The Tournament’s doorstep, they still only need one Big XII tournament win to solidify themselves. It’s that kind of season for a team with this kind of resume.
Notable wins: Texas, Ohio State
Notable losses: Arizona, Kansas State, Nebraska

(19-10, 45, 3-5) The Beasley appeal has to factor into the committee’s mindset. How can it not? I still proclaim they’ll need at least one Big XII tourney win, so let’s wait for that tomorrow when they play either A&M or Iowa State.
Notable wins: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Notable losses: Oregon, Notre Dame, George Mason, Xavier

(21-9, 31, 2-8) Their close win over Providence can’t completely secure them for a big. A UConn win today would. Notable wins: Marquette, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: Tennessee, Oklahoma, Villanova

(17-13, 31, 5-7) Their massacre of Oregon State last night aside, if they lose to Stanford today (giving them one quality win in seven weeks), is it still okay to put them in?
Notable wins: Texas A&M, UNLV, Washington State twice
Notable losses: Memphis, Kansas, Arizona State twice, UCLA twice, Stanford twice

(19-12, 47, 2-9) Wouldn’t you love to be a Buckeye right now? It wasn’t good enough to defeat Michigan State and Purdue in your past two games, you’re going to have to defeat Michigan State again in order to lock up a spot.
Notable wins: Syracuse, Florida, Purdue, Michigan State
Notable losses: Texas A&M, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan

Bubbilicious (6): Where the line is blurred.

(22-7, 27, 1-3) RPI is good, but there’s not a lot of bragging material. Still, it’d be hard to keep them out if they won two in the MWC tournament. Their splits of BYU and New Mexico nullify any notable wins.
Notable wins: None
Notable losses: Louisville, Arizona, Air Force

(20-9, 33 3-8) Do you think Baylor’s in with a win today over Colorado? Consider: If they fall to Oklahoma for a third time in the Big XII semis tomorrow, couldn’t you still have an argument to leave them out?
Notable wins: Notre Dame, Texas A&M
Notable losses: Washington State, Arkansas, Oklahoma twice

(19-11, 74, 5-6) The Xavier win should be getting more cred than it has. Still, the Southern Cal game (today, 3 p.m. ET) will be very intriguing.
Notable wins: Arizona twice, Xavier, Stanford
Notable losses: Illinois, Nebraska, Wash. State and UCLA twice

(21-9, 43, 1-2) You have to think that UMass will be good, as they are No. 2 in the pecking order for the A-10, but the profile might not hold up if they can’t get a win today against dangerous Charlotte.
Notable wins: Syracuse, Dayton, Rhode Island twice
Notable losses: Fordham, Northern Iowa, St. Joe’s twice

(18-12, 54, 4-8) If we still have to put Arizona in this thing, then the Ducks, who swept the Wildcats, must to be included as well.
Notable wins: Kansas State, Arizona twice
Notable losses: Washington, Oakland, St. Mary’s

(19-11, 50, 3-5) Waiting to see what unfolds in front of me over the next two hours.
Notable wins: UConn, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: St. Joe’s, Rutgers, N.C. State

——————–SEED 66 LINE———————–

(21-9, 29, 2-3) The bubble has gotten smaller, so Dayton, who has an 8-8 regular season A-10 record, has to be out right now.
Notable wins: Louisville, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: George Washington, La Salle, George Mason

(19-11, 56, 4-3) Jury’s out…
Notable wins: Xavier, Villanova, UMass twice
Notable losses: Syracuse, Gonzaga, Holy Cross

(24-7, 53, 1-4) I didn’t like kicking them out, but it appears necessary until they can make some moves in the MWC tournament. Also, how well does the committee really know this team this year?
Notable wins: UNLV
Notable losses: BYU twice, Ole Miss, TCU

(24-7, 55, 0-2) It’s going to be a long week for the Rams, who suffered that bad loss to William & Mary in the CAA semis. The RPI is right in the gray area and they don’t have a lot of good-win ammo. I’ll have them high on the list until other teams start winning in their conference tournaments. This is an ultimate bubble team, and I think you have to give them the nod over South Alabama, barely.
Notable wins: Maryland, Houston
Notable losses: Miami (FL), Arkansas, James Madison

(24-6, 39, 3-2) Already, the RPI plummets. I have to put South Alabama on the outside looking in right now. Everyone suddenly seems to be an expert on this team, but I’m still trying to decide if they belong. I reserve the right to change my mind here.
Notable wins: Mississippi State, Western Kentucky twice
Notable losses: Mississippi, Vanderbilt, North Texas

(23-9, 35, 0-5) After getting their doors blown out against Drake, I CAN’T put them in. Drake won all three meetings and though I think they’ll end up being picked, this team has no signature wins outside of their conference, and even Creighton being their best W is definitely alarming.
Notable wins: Sweeps of Creighton, Southern Illinois
Notable losses: Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Drake twice

(18-13, 69, 1-5) I actually had Maryland in yesterday before their gaffe on the road against Virginia. Too bad. Not really though, because I never liked this team for The Tournament.
Notable wins: North Carolina
Notable losses: UCLA, Ohio, American

(19-13, 52, 3-10) They are … doneski.
Notable wins: Saint Joseph’s, Georgetown
Notable losses: UMass, Rhode Island, Ohio State, South Florida

(22-9, 50, 1-2) Getting housed by Memphis (like everyone else) means they’ll need to make the C-USA final and be competitive there to get an at-large. Even then it could be a pipe dream.
Notable wins: Kentucky
Notable losses: Wichita State, Rhode Island, South Florida

(21-10, 65, 2-8) The Kentucky loss almost cripples them, but an SEC tournament final appearance would get them in if other teams bow out early in their conference tournaments.
Notable wins: Kentucky, Vanderbilt
Notable losses: Ohio State, LSU, Florida State

(18-12, 58, 0-6) Seth Greenberg (in case you missed it) doesn’t want to hear about anyone dismissing this team’s bubble chances.
Notable wins: Miami (FL), Arkansas
Notable losses: Butler, Gonzaga, Old Dominion, Penn State

Here we go: There are now 33 locks. (Arkansas, USC, Kent State, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Saint Mary’s and Ole Miss join the rest.) The at-large field after that? We’re currently at 23 teams. VCU was the first team to not follow the chalk in the conference tournaments, so their CAA semifinal loss could hurt them … or kill off someone else’s at-large hopes. Look! It’s already intriguing with six days to go! Plus you had Saint Mary’s losing a game they shouldn’t have lost to San Diego (on San Diego’s home floor) last night, but I still think 25 overall wins with their profile makes them a lock.

Also: I’m assuming Big 6 locks plus Memphis (C-USA), Gonzaga (WCC) and Xavier (A-10) win their conference tournaments.

Having done out my own bracket, there are 16 spots left not occupied by locks, auto bids or one-bid conferences.

If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com. Or you can just post in the comments, which is always encouraged.

Drake is the only team that has essentially given up a bubble spot, so some teams let out a little bit of relief there.

LOCKS:

Note: ALL RECORDS AND RANKINGS ARE AS OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

Here are the 16 (in order) remaining teams that fill up the brackets and the teams that just miss out (for now)…

(Record vs. D-I, RPI, Record vs. RPI Top 50) [Using the ever-reliable kenpom.com]

One win away (5): One more W will mean lock status.

(24-6, 41, 0-3) The rub: One more win an they get the auto bid, so go figure. If they lose that in a close one, I think I’d have to put them in because of a perfect conference record (20-0). Startling: Zero Top 100 wins.
Notable wins: None
Notable losses: UNC, UCLA, Duke

(21-9, 47, 4-6) Stumblin’ to The Tournament’s doorstep, they still only need one Big XII tournament win to solidify themselves. It’s that kind of season for a team with this kind of resume.
Notable wins: Texas, Ohio State
Notable losses: Arizona, Kansas State, Nebraska

(22-7, 29, 1-3) RPI is good, but there’s not a lot of bragging material. Still, it’d be hard to keep them out if they won two in the MWC tournament. Their splits of BYU and New Mexico nullify any notable wins.
Notable wins: None
Notable losses: Louisville, Arizona, Air Force

(19-10, 44, 3-5) The Beasley appeal has to factor into the committee’s mindset. How can it not? I still proclaim they’ll need at least one Big XII tourney win, so expect them in the 8/9 game.
Notable wins: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Notable losses: Oregon, Notre Dame, George Mason, Xavier

(21-9, 33, 3-7) Doug Gottlieb has chosen West Virginia as his hateable Big East team this season. Their wins in conference ARE weak, but they do have 11 of them. Just getting a win on Wednesday over Providence is for technicality’s sake.
Notable wins: Marquette, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: Tennessee, Oklahoma, Villanova

Bubbilicious (11): Where the line is blurred.

(17-13, 31, 5-7) A loss on the road to Oregon, yet everyone still picks Arizona to get in because of their wins. Hey, I love a great resume like everyone else, but just because this team has a No. 2-ranked SOS doesn’t mean that we have to take them. If they lose to Stanford in the second round of the Pac-10 tournament (safe to assume they beat Oregon State in round one), then why should they be taken?
Notable wins: Texas A&M, UNLV, Washington State twice
Notable losses: Memphis, Kansas, Arizona State twice, UCLA twice, Stanford twice

(24-7, 52, 0-2) It’s going to be a long week for the Rams, who suffered that bad loss to William & Mary yesterday. The RPI is right in the gray area and they don’t have a lot of good-win ammo. I’ll have them high on the list until other teams start winning in their conference tournaments. Would I put them in over Maryland though? Definitely.
Notable wins: Maryland, Houston
Notable losses: Miami (FL), Arkansas, James Madison

(19-12, 48, 3-9) I can’t put them in the category above because this team has been pretty up-and-down. Do they get the nod right now over Syracuse and Florida (they beat both)? Yes, but it’s the whole body of work, and Ohio State still needs to prove themselves.
Notable wins: Syracuse, Florida, Purdue, Michigan State
Notable losses: Texas A&M, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan

(20-9, 34 3-8) I guess we put them in for now, but another loss could bring up a confusing case.
Notable wins: Notre Dame, Texas A&M
Notable losses: Washington State, Arkansas, Oklahoma twice

(19-11, 34, 5-6) The RPI is flat out brutal. The Oregon loss could come back and haunt them, but how great do those Xavier and Stanford wins look? How can you keep this team out but put Arizona in?
Notable wins: Arizona twice, Xavier, Stanford
Notable losses: Illinois, Nebraska, Wash. State and UCLA twice

(21-9, 40, 2-2) You have to think that UMass will be good, as they are No. 2 in the pecking order, but the profile might not hold up if they can’t get a win the A-10 tournament.
Notable wins: Syracuse, Dayton, Rhode Island twice
Notable losses: Fordham, Northern Iowa, St. Joe’s twice

(24-5, 24, 3-2) They beat Western Kentucky to sweep the season with the Towel Wavers and if they win out, but lose in the Sun Belt final, it could be interesting for South Alabama.
Notable wins: Mississippi State, Western Kentucky twice
Notable losses: Mississippi, Vanderbilt, North Texas

(24-7, 53, 1-4) I had them in on Monday before they beat Vegas, then again on Friday before they beat Colorado State. Just avoid the first round bottom out and the Lobos should be good.
Notable wins: UNLV
Notable losses: BYU twice, Ole Miss, TCU

(18-12, 54, 4-8) If we still have to put Arizona in this thing, then the Ducks, who swept the Wildcats, must to be included as well.
Notable wins: Kansas State, Arizona twice
Notable losses: Washington, Oakland, St. Mary’s

(19-11, 56, 4-6) You know, you find yourself filling out a bracket of 65, and you can’t believe who the final teams getting in are. I compare Villanova’s resume to the teams below, I have to squeeze them in. Though their first round game against Syracuse on Wednesday is an elimination game, so there’s some good juice there.
Notable wins: UConn, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: St. Joe’s, Rutgers, N.C. State

(20-9, 36, 2-3) Yeah … how about this choice out of nowhere? Maryland losing last night has to put someone in the 65 spot, so why not the suddenly-on-the-come Flyers? They beat St. Joe’s over the weekend, so they’re ahead of the Hawks, though their 8-8 A-10 record is a scab. They must get at least one win in the A-10 tournament, no question.
Notable wins: Louisville, Pittsburgh
Notable losses: George Washington, La Salle, George Mason

——————–SEED 66 LINE———————–

(23-9, 35, 0-5) After getting their doors blown out against Drake, I CAN’T put them in. Drake won all three meetings and though I think they’ll end up being picked, this team has no signature wins outside of their conference, and even Creighton being their best W is definitely alarming.
Notable wins: Sweeps of Creighton, Southern Illinois
Notable losses: Eastern Michigan, Indiana, Drake twice

(18-13, 69, 1-5) I actually had Maryland in yesterday before their gaffe on the road against Virginia. Too bad. Not really though, because I never liked this team for The Tournament.
Notable wins: North Carolina
Notable losses: UCLA, Ohio, American

(19-12, 45, 2-8) I think Syracuse is among the 34 best non-auto bids, but they’ve had some bad losses, so they still haven’t EARNED it yet. I don’t know what I’d do if they won only one Big East tournament game, but I know I’d have them in with two of ‘em.
Notable wins: Saint Joseph’s, Georgetown
Notable losses: UMass, Rhode Island, Ohio State, South Florida

(18-11, 55, 3-4) The Hawks’ loss to Dayton puts them behind the Flyers and they deserve to be punished. What has happened to the A-10? How crazy and arguable is Joe Lunardi’s alma mater’s schedule? For the sake of this feature, I don’t check his Bracketology, but can someone tell me if he has his school in right now?
Notable wins: Xavier, Villanova, UMass twice
Notable losses: Syracuse, Gonzaga, Holy Cross

(22-9, 50, 1-2) Getting housed by Memphis (like everyone else) means they’ll need to make the C-USA final and be competitive there to get an at-large. Even then it could be a pipe dream.
Notable wins: Kentucky
Notable losses: Wichita State, Rhode Island, South Florida

(21-10, 65, 2-8) The Kentucky loss yesterday almost cripples them, but an SEC tournament final appearance would get them in if other teams bow out early in their conference tournaments.
Notable wins: Kentucky, Vanderbilt
Notable losses: Ohio State, LSU, Florida State

(18-12, 57, 0-6) Va. Tech lost a heart breaker to Clemson yesterday, so without any terrific wins, how can they be considered? Just because conference tournament season can be crazy, I’ll let them hang in the back of the room.
Notable wins: Miami (FL), Arkansas, James Madison
Notable losses: Butler, Gonzaga, Old Dominion, Penn State

My god I love bubble talk. I’m throwing in the keys wins and losses this week so you can compare and contrast.

There are now 28 locks. (Welcome, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Miami and BYU.) The at-large field after that? We’re currently at 27 teams. Here’s where the fun starts … Since I have no reason to believe otherwise, I’ll still assume that all conference tournaments will be won by teams that are locks. (This will open up the most at-large bids possible for now.) So this is a best-case scenario.

I’m assuming the Big 6 plus Memphis (C-USA), Drake (Mizzou Valley), Xavier (A-10) and Gonzaga/St. Mary’s (WCC) are winning their conf. tourneys.

Having done out my own bracket, there are 21 spots left not occupied by locks or auto-bid conferences.

If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com. Or you can just post in the comments, which is always encouraged. (more…)

I’m going twice a week now, so look for this feature on Mondays and Thursdays/Fridays.

I remind you that this is not about projecting the field or anticipating what might happen. No, this is how I see the field of 65 and who I think should be in right now. After all, we all complain about who WE think should have/should not have gotten in on Aftermath Monday. And no, I do not read any Bracketology. As I’ve stated before, Lunardi is just too good at what he does that he takes the fun out evaluating the field for me.

There are only 34 at-large berths handed out each year, but you have to know that by now.

There are now 24 locks. (Welcome, Clemson and Pitt.) The at-large field after that? We’re currently at 31 teams. Here’s where the fun starts. I will assume that all of the conference tournaments will be won by teams that are currently locks. This will open up the most at-large bids possible for now. So this is a best-case scenario. I honestly can’t believe some of the teams I’m putting in right now because of it.

The math: 34 at-large berths - 10 locks (not counting locks taking the auto bids)= 24 spots left.

Where are those 10 locks coming from? I’m assuming the Big 6 plus Memphis (C-USA), Drake (Mizzou Valley), Xavier (A-10) and Gonzaga/St. Mary’s (WCC) are winning their conf. tourneys. The rub? Of those 24 open spots, are taken up by teams that are a win away from being locks. But assume that the bottom four teams are anything but safe.

If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com. Or you can just post in the comments, which is always encouraged.

Gone from last week’s edition: Wake Forest, Ohio, Cal and Ohio State. Still out: Oregon and Rhode Island. For all of your NCAA Tournament questions, needs and curiosities, follow me. (more…)

February ends with a monstrous jump. We go from 15 to 22 locks in a week, which really tightens up that bubble. All the red means there’s blood in the water. Or something.

I remind you: this feature is not about projecting the field or anticipating what might happen. No, this is how I see the field of 65 and who I think should be in right now. After all, we all complain about who WE think should have/should not have gotten in on Aftermath Monday. And no, I do not read any Bracketology. As I’ve stated before, Lunardi is just too good at what he does that he takes the fun out evaluating the field for me.

There are only 34 at-large berths handed out each year, but you have to know that by now. For the sake of this column, I’m assuming the worst right now. That means that I’m assuming that every single conference tournament will produce a winner that has no at-large chances. Those rules will next week. This is bare bones at-large candidacy right now.

There are now 22 locks. The at-large field after that? We’re currently at 36 teams.

The math: 34 at-large berths - 22 locks= 8 spots left. The good news? Those spots will inevitably grow because some of the locks will earn the auto bids, clearing up more room for bubble teams. God, I love March.

If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com. Or you can just post in the comments, which is always encouraged.

Gone from last week’s edition: Oregon and Rhode Island. Back: Virginia Tech. Finally showing up: Kentucky. For all of your NCAA Tournament questions, needs and curiosities, follow me. (more…)

Do not hate on Freddy.

It really dawned on my yesterday: My God I cannot wait for Greg Gumbel’s voice on March 16.

Again: this feature is not about projecting the field or anticipating what might happen. No, this is how I see the field of 65 and who I think should be in right now. After all, we all complain about who WE think should have/should not have gotten in on Aftermath Monday. And no, I do not read any Bracketology. As I’ve stated before, Lunardi is just too good at what he does that he takes the fun out evaluating the field for me.

What defines a “lock” to me? Simple: If you can afford to lose every single game for the remainder of the season and still be granted an at-large berth despite that, you’re a lock.

I’m litigious with this, I know, but I do it purposefully in order to really be able to get a full scope of the at-large field.

Understand that there are only 34 at-large berths handed out each year, and the ratio of locks/bubblers will certainly become a lot tighter once February comes to an end. For the sake of this column, I’m assuming the worst right now. That means that I’m assuming that every single conference tournament will produce a winner that has no at-large chances.

There are now 15 locks. The at-large field after that? We’ve trimmed it down to 45 teams.

The math: 34 at-large berths - 15 locks= 19 spots left. The good news? Those spots will inevitably grow because some of the locks will earn the auto bids, clearing up more room for bubble teams. God, I love March.

If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com. Or you can just post in the comments, which is always welcomed.

Gone from last week’s edition: North Carolina State, Duquesne, George Mason and Illinois State. Previous dumpees in the past two weeks: Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Providence, Charlotte, Wake Forest and Seton Hall. Texas Tech, Minnesota, Virginia, Creighton, Boston College, Florida State. Villanova and Wake Forest are back from the dead. Those schools could enter back into the fold, but it’s going to take a lot. For all of your NCAA Tournament questions, needs and curiosities, follow me. (more…)

This feature is not about projecting the field or anticipating what might happen. No, this is how I see the field of 65 and who I think should be in. After all, we all complain about who WE think should have/should not have gotten in on Aftermath Monday. All of this is according to my eyes and my judgment. And no, I do not read any Bracketology. As I’ve stated before, Lunardi is just too good at what he does that he takes the fun out evaluating the field for me.

Locks? Yeah, I’ve got some. What defines a “lock” to me? Simple: If you can afford to lose every single game for the remainder of the season and still be granted an at-large berth despite that, you’re a lock.

I’m litigious with this, I know, but I do it purposefully in order to really be able to get a full scope of the at-large field.

There are now 12 locks. The at-large field after that? We continue to lop off the fat and get a healthier set of 49 teams still rolling around in the cement truck.

There are others, and I call them the “fringers”, that are not even worthy of consideration yet (Kentucky, Akron, Utah State, etc…) but could eventually fight their way into the at-large picture. However, that door is almost closed; those teams have about a week left to enter the discussion. If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com.

Understand that there are only 34 at-large berths handed out each year, and the ratio of locks/bubblers will certainly become a lot tighter once February comes to an end. For the sake of this column, I’m assuming the worst right now. That means that I’m assuming that every single conference tournament will produce a winner that has no at-large chances.

Gone from last week’s edition: Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Villanova, Providence, Charlotte, Wake Forest and Seton Hall. The week before that I rid the list of: Texas Tech, Minnesota, Virginia, Creighton, Boston College, Florida State). Those schools could enter back into the fold, but they’re not there today. For all of your NCAA Tournament questions, needs and curiosities, follow me. (more…)

Everyone that has come to this site should already know the great work that Glockner does over at Bubble Watch, but this feature will not be about projecting the field, or anticipating what might happen. No, this is how I see the field of 65 and who I think should be in; all of this is according to my eyes and my judgment. And no, I do not read any Bracketology. As I’ve stated before, Lunardi is just too good at what he does that he takes the fun out evaluating the field for me.

Locks? Yes! I’ve finally dubbed some teams as official “locks.” What defines a “lock” to me? Simple: If you can afford to lose every single game for the remainder of the season and still be granted an at-large berth despite that, you’re a lock.

I’m litigious with this, I know, but I do it purposefully in order to really be able to get a full scope of the at-large field.

There are now only 10 locks and the at-large field after that? It’s now down just one to 56.

There are others, and I call them the “fringers” that are not even worthy of consideration yet (Kentucky, Akron, Utah State, etc…) but could eventually fight their way into the at-large picture. If you have any questions, gripes, serious disagreements or love letters you’d like to send me, I can be reached at editor@collegehoopsjournal.com.

Understand that there are only 34 at-large berths handed out each year, and the ratio of locks/bubblers will certainly become a lot tighter once February rolls on. (Expect the first bunch of lock teams to be put into place next week.) For the sake of this column, I’m assuming the worst right now. That means every single conference tournament will produce a winner that has no at-large chances. I’ve cut some of the fat—Texas Tech, Minnesota, Virginia, Creighton, Boston College, Florida State—so let’s move on. For all of your NCAA Tournament questions, needs and curiosities, follow me. (more…)