Every college basketball season brings surprises. Teams with low preseason expectations often rise, knocking off top programs and making deep tournament runs. These “dark horse” teams usually combine strong coaching, experienced players and overlooked talent. While not favored to win it all, they have the tools to upset big names and capture national attention.
What Defines a Dark Horse?
In college basketball, a dark horse is not a top seed or powerhouse. Instead, it’s a team that sits just outside the national spotlight—often unranked or seeded lower than fifth in the NCAA Tournament. They may come from smaller conferences or be under-the-radar programs from power conferences. What they share is the ability to peak at the right time and win games they’re not expected to.
1. Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Atlantic reached the Final Four in 2023 and returns key pieces from that run. Despite playing in a non-power conference, the Owls have proven they can compete with anyone. Their guard-heavy lineup features strong ball control and perimeter shooting. Coach Dusty May has built a disciplined, high-IQ team that can frustrate more athletic opponents. FAU could easily surprise again and make another deep March run.
2. Saint Mary’s Gaels
Saint Mary’s is often overshadowed by Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference, but this team has the talent and depth to go far. Known for their patient offense and tight defense, the Gaels rarely beat themselves. Guard Aidan Mahaney is a standout, capable of leading the offense and hitting clutch shots. With a solid mix of upperclassmen and strong coaching from Randy Bennett, they could break out nationally.
3. Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado returns a talented core, including top scorer KJ Simpson and five-star freshman Cody Williams. Coach Tad Boyle runs a balanced system that values defense and rebounding. If the Buffaloes improve their consistency on the road, they could push into the top tier of the Pac-12. Their size, athleticism, and depth make them a real threat to higher seeds in tournament play.
4. Drake Bulldogs
Drake has quietly built one of the more consistent programs in the Missouri Valley Conference. Led by guard Tucker DeVries, a high-volume scorer with NBA potential, the Bulldogs play fast and unselfish basketball. Coach Darian DeVries has instilled strong fundamentals and defensive discipline. With experience and a reliable offensive engine, Drake could knock out power-conference opponents in March.
5. UAB Blazers
UAB made noise in recent seasons and now joins the American Athletic Conference with momentum. The Blazers boast a tough, veteran roster and a strong coach in Andy Kennedy. They defend well and have explosive scoring ability in the backcourt. If they catch fire in March, UAB has the tools to take down more established programs and become a tournament surprise.
6. Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State made an Elite Eight appearance in 2023 under first-year coach Jerome Tang. Though they lost some key players, they reloaded with transfers and return solid leadership. Tang has quickly built a culture of intensity and accountability. K-State’s aggressive defense and guard play could once again fuel a surprising postseason push.
7. Liberty Flames
Liberty is a rising mid-major with a system built around efficient offense and low turnovers. Darius McGhee, one of the nation’s best mid-major guards in recent years, may be gone, but the Flames continue to develop talent. Their emphasis on three-point shooting and disciplined defensive rotations keeps them competitive against bigger programs. Liberty has the potential to upset a top seed on a neutral court.
8. VCU Rams
VCU is no stranger to March Madness surprises. Their “Havoc” defensive system creates turnovers and pressures opponents for 40 minutes. Under new leadership but with familiar intensity, the Rams can smother less disciplined teams and flip the tempo. A strong showing in the Atlantic 10 could springboard them back into national relevance as a dangerous lower seed.
9. New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico plays in the competitive Mountain West and has a high-scoring backcourt duo in Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. Their fast tempo and confident shot-making create matchup problems. The Lobos need to improve defensively, but if they find a rhythm late in the season, they could be a tough out for any higher-seeded team. Their pace and scoring power make them a classic bracket buster candidate.
10. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
UC Santa Barbara dominates the Big West with a veteran-heavy squad. Their physical play and half-court offense wear teams down. Coach Joe Pasternack has led the program to multiple 20-win seasons and tournament bids. With size, experience, and a clear identity, the Gauchos could shock a vulnerable power-conference opponent in the first weekend of March Madness.
Key Traits of Potential Cinderella Teams
- Experienced Guards: Veteran ball-handlers tend to play smarter under pressure.
- Efficient Offense: Teams that minimize turnovers and shoot well from outside can close gaps quickly.
- Strong Coaching: Programs with tactical coaches often adjust well during high-stakes games.
- Depth and Health: Teams with multiple scoring options and fresh legs fare better in tournament formats.
- Confidence: Upsets require belief. Teams with big wins early in the season carry that momentum into March.
Why These Teams Matter
Dark horse teams bring unpredictability to college basketball. They energize fans, break brackets, and remind everyone that talent isn’t limited to the biggest schools. These programs may lack five-star recruits, but they make up for it with system, experience, and hunger. When the right pieces align, any one of them could become the next Cinderella story that captures national attention.